This track checked in as the HARDEST non-major course in 2017.

Tiger Woods is the host and playing this week.

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
-AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	T11	136,400
Zurich Classic	Bud Cauley	MC	0
Wells Fargo Championship	Bryson DeChambeau	4th	369,600
THE PLAYERS	Francesco Molinari	MC	0
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jimmy Walker	T6	257,950
Fort Worth Invitational	Adam Scott	T52	16,472
Memorial	Tiger Woods	T23	76,985
FESJC	Henrik Stenson	T26	50,820
US Open	Justin Rose	T10	270,151
FESJC	Xander Schauffele	MC	0
Total Events: 34	Top 10s: 11	MC: 7	$6,163,967

Last week:

Well, I’m 0-3 on Bubba Watson this season so I’m an idiot. I’m also and idiot for not loading up on a two-time champ at this event when he was available to me.

#SadFace.

Hindsight says rolling with a guy who was playing in his first final group on Sunday in a major, Berger, was also a bad idea.

Occam’s Razor wins again.

No dice from the X-man, which was disappointing as all he needed in Round 2 was an even-par round after an opening 67.

I didn’t feel like sticking Day or McIlroy in and T12 from each wouldn’t have made the risk worth it. I get that it’s better than $0 but 10% of first place is just that.

I’m glad I couldn’t use Paul Casey last week. I’m not sure I would have made it through the back nine alive. As I wrote in the Emergency 9 on Sunday, not only did he finish second with four-shot lead, but he split it four ways.

Barf.

Kinda like my recent picks.

Last Week

My Choice: Xander Schauffele – MC

Picks for Leaders: Daniel Berger – T67, Paul Casey – T2, Webb Simpson – MC

Picks for Chasers: Bubba Watson – WIN, Jordan Spieth – T42, Patrick Reed – MC

Picks for Dreamers: Brendan Steele – MC, Ryan Moore – MC, Charley Hoffman – T15, Patrick Rodgers – T26

Picks for Noses: Jason Day – T12, Rory McIlroy – T12, Brooks Koepka – T19

Six Beers In: Kevin Streelman – T33, C.T. Pan – MC

Drop-Dead Pick: Daniel Berger – T67

 

This week:

With a VERY thin field I would expect a heavyweight to seize the opportunity for quick snatch-and-grab before the U.S. Open. Also, this track is VERY difficult and that usually wipes out the birdie brigade and the guys who don’t enjoy a grind.

This is the second final event at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm so everything we’ve learned the last year will be unceremoniously flushed for next year as the event moves to Detroit.

I’m done waiting for things to happen so I’m unleashing a big player this week to get back into the discussion. I tried to get “cute” last week and took a beating from an obvious selection.

My Choice: Kyle Stanley

Picks for Leaders: Kyle Stanley, Marc Leishman, Charles Howell III

Picks for Chasers: Rickie Fowler, J.B. Holmes, Beau Hossler, Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Picks for Dreamers: David Lingmerth, Ben An, Francesco Molinari

Picks for Noses: Tiger Woods, Stewart Cink

Six Beers In: Kevin Streelman (again), Seamus Power

Drop-Dead Pick: Kyle Stanley

 

My Life

I wrote this first:

Wiped out in back-to-back events pushes me to the point of panic. The angle for Fowler this week is simple: he played really well here minus a few holes last year and was T3. Also, this field will be the weakest one he faces from this point forward. He hasn’t flipped the switch yet but has been playing well enough break through this week. The more difficult course set-up also helps and it will be more difficult for someone to get out and pull away. Remember, he was five over in his first five holes last year and finished T3.

I’m not talking anyone out of playing Kyle Stanley and am conflicted about the pick.

I’ve changed my mind and am going with Stanley.

Picking winners isn’t very easy but I can live with a top 10 from Stanley or a MC because I’ll have Fowler down the road.

Now if Fowler wins…

Here’s my tentative plan:

The Greenbrier Classic: TBD

John Deere Classic: Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Berger (if playing) or Kevin Tway.

Barbasol Championship: TBD (brand-new venue)

The Open Championship: Sergio Garcia, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler

RBC Canadian Open: Matt Kuchar, John Vegas, Brandt Snedeker

Barracuda Championship: Martin Laird, TBD

WGC-Bridgestone Invitational: McIlroy, Schwartzel, Koepka

PGA Championship: First-time venue Bellerive Country Club will suggest a top 10 OWGR player. Jason Day and Thomas are obvious choices.

Wyndham Championship: Kevin Na, Ollie Schniederjans

NORTHERN TRUST OPEN: Matt Kuchar will be the only winner in the field at Ridgewood Country Club (2010). He was also T5 in 2014.

Dell Technologies TPC Boston: Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Chris Kirk

BMW Championship: Aronomink is the host and Rose (2010) and Nick Watney (2011) are the only two winners on TOUR here (Donald Ross course).

The TOUR Championship: There has never been a repeat champion or anyone who has won multiple FedExCup titles so whoever is left! A rookie won for the first time last year (Schauffele) so it’s not impossible!

Good luck!

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!