This track checked in as the HARDEST non-major course in 2017.
Tiger Woods is the host and playing this week.
Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.
|Safeway Open||Tony Finau||2nd||669,600|
|CIMB Classic||Paul Casey||T7||218,166|
|CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES||Keegan Bradley||T47||23,759|
|WGC-HSBC Champions||Hideki Matsuyama||T50||51,875|
|Sanderson Farms||Chesson Hadley||T2||464,400|
|OHL Classic||Kevin Chappell||MC||0|
|The RSM Classic||Charles Howell III||MC||0|
|Sentry TOC||Kevin Kisner||T17||99,333|
|Sony Open||Brian Harman||T4||256,266|
|CareerBuilder Challenge||Jason Dufner||T36||27,189|
|Farmers Insurance||Jon Rahm||T29||43,872|
|-AT&T Pebble Beach||Phil Mickelson||T2||488,400|
|Genesis Open||Dustin Johnson||T16||111,600|
|Honda Classic||Graeme McDowell||MC||0|
|Valspar Championship||Ryan Moore||MC||0|
|Arnold Palmer||Tyrell Hatton||T69||18,067|
|WGC-Match Play||Patrick Reed||T9||163,000|
|Corales Puntacana||Patrick Rodgers||T22||27,850|
|Houston Open||Luke List||T24||54,162|
|RBC Heritage||Cameron Smith||T32||35,510|
|Valero Texas Open||Billy Horschel||T11||136,400|
|Zurich Classic||Bud Cauley||MC||0|
|Wells Fargo Championship||Bryson DeChambeau||4th||369,600
|THE PLAYERS||Francesco Molinari||MC||0|
|AT&T Byron Nelson||Jimmy Walker||T6||257,950|
|Fort Worth Invitational||Adam Scott||T52||16,472|
|US Open||Justin Rose||T10||270,151|
Total Events: 34
|Top 10s: 11||MC: 7||$6,163,967|
Well, I’m 0-3 on Bubba Watson this season so I’m an idiot. I’m also and idiot for not loading up on a two-time champ at this event when he was available to me.
Hindsight says rolling with a guy who was playing in his first final group on Sunday in a major, Berger, was also a bad idea.
Occam’s Razor wins again.
No dice from the X-man, which was disappointing as all he needed in Round 2 was an even-par round after an opening 67.
I didn’t feel like sticking Day or McIlroy in and T12 from each wouldn’t have made the risk worth it. I get that it’s better than $0 but 10% of first place is just that.
I’m glad I couldn’t use Paul Casey last week. I’m not sure I would have made it through the back nine alive. As I wrote in the Emergency 9 on Sunday, not only did he finish second with four-shot lead, but he split it four ways.
Kinda like my recent picks.
My Choice: Xander Schauffele – MC
Picks for Leaders: Daniel Berger – T67, Paul Casey – T2, Webb Simpson – MC
Picks for Chasers: Bubba Watson – WIN, Jordan Spieth – T42, Patrick Reed – MC
Picks for Dreamers: Brendan Steele – MC, Ryan Moore – MC, Charley Hoffman – T15, Patrick Rodgers – T26
Picks for Noses: Jason Day – T12, Rory McIlroy – T12, Brooks Koepka – T19
Six Beers In: Kevin Streelman – T33, C.T. Pan – MC
Drop-Dead Pick: Daniel Berger – T67
With a VERY thin field I would expect a heavyweight to seize the opportunity for quick snatch-and-grab before the U.S. Open. Also, this track is VERY difficult and that usually wipes out the birdie brigade and the guys who don’t enjoy a grind.
This is the second final event at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm so everything we’ve learned the last year will be unceremoniously flushed for next year as the event moves to Detroit.
I’m done waiting for things to happen so I’m unleashing a big player this week to get back into the discussion. I tried to get “cute” last week and took a beating from an obvious selection.
My Choice: Kyle Stanley
Picks for Leaders: Kyle Stanley, Marc Leishman, Charles Howell III
Picks for Chasers: Rickie Fowler, J.B. Holmes, Beau Hossler, Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Picks for Dreamers: David Lingmerth, Ben An, Francesco Molinari
Picks for Noses: Tiger Woods, Stewart Cink
Six Beers In: Kevin Streelman (again), Seamus Power
Drop-Dead Pick: Kyle Stanley
I wrote this first:
Wiped out in back-to-back events pushes me to the point of panic. The angle for Fowler this week is simple: he played really well here minus a few holes last year and was T3. Also, this field will be the weakest one he faces from this point forward. He hasn’t flipped the switch yet but has been playing well enough break through this week. The more difficult course set-up also helps and it will be more difficult for someone to get out and pull away. Remember, he was five over in his first five holes last year and finished T3.
I’m not talking anyone out of playing Kyle Stanley and am conflicted about the pick.
I’ve changed my mind and am going with Stanley.
Picking winners isn’t very easy but I can live with a top 10 from Stanley or a MC because I’ll have Fowler down the road.
Now if Fowler wins…
Here’s my tentative plan:
The Greenbrier Classic: TBD
John Deere Classic: Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Berger (if playing) or Kevin Tway.
Barbasol Championship: TBD (brand-new venue)
The Open Championship: Sergio Garcia, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler
RBC Canadian Open: Matt Kuchar, John Vegas, Brandt Snedeker
Barracuda Championship: Martin Laird, TBD
WGC-Bridgestone Invitational: McIlroy, Schwartzel, Koepka
PGA Championship: First-time venue Bellerive Country Club will suggest a top 10 OWGR player. Jason Day and Thomas are obvious choices.
Wyndham Championship: Kevin Na, Ollie Schniederjans
NORTHERN TRUST OPEN: Matt Kuchar will be the only winner in the field at Ridgewood Country Club (2010). He was also T5 in 2014.
Dell Technologies TPC Boston: Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Chris Kirk
BMW Championship: Aronomink is the host and Rose (2010) and Nick Watney (2011) are the only two winners on TOUR here (Donald Ross course).
The TOUR Championship: There has never been a repeat champion or anyone who has won multiple FedExCup titles so whoever is left! A rookie won for the first time last year (Schauffele) so it’s not impossible!
2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events
- Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
- Seconds: 0
- Thirds: 1
- Top 10s: 9
- Top 25s: 18
- MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)
2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events
- Wins: 1
- Seconds: 1
- Thirds: 1
- Top 10s: 12
- Top 25s: 20
- MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).
Thanks for reading!