OAD — 118th U.S. Open

It shouldn’t be an easy selection.

I hope you’re flopping and flipping back-and-forth like I have been.

I don’t think you’re WRONG this week regardless but for $2.16 million for first place and 600 FedExCup points, I’d sure like to nail it!

Start here:

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
Valspar Championship Ryan Moore MC 0
Arnold Palmer Tyrell Hatton T69 18,067
WGC-Match Play Patrick Reed T9 163,000
Corales Puntacana Patrick Rodgers T22 27,850
Houston Open Luke List T24 54,162
Masters Jordan Spieth 3rd 748,000
RBC Heritage Cameron Smith T32 35,510
Valero Texas Open Billy Horschel T11 136,400
Zurich Classic Bud Cauley MC 0
Wells Fargo Championship Bryson DeChambeau 4th 369,600

 

THE PLAYERS Francesco Molinari MC 0
AT&T Byron Nelson Jimmy Walker T6 257,950
Fort Worth Invitational Adam Scott T52 16,472
Memorial Tiger Woods T23 76,985
FESJC Henrik Stenson T26 50,820
       
Total Events: 32

 

Top 10s: 10 MC: 6 $5,893,816

Last week:

Dustin Johnson rewarded his investors with a win and almost $1.2 million. There’s no doubt he’s a boss here and this event will have MORE VALUE starting next year with WGC-FESJC.

Daniel Berger put some folks in a tough spot last week by not seeing the weekend but I didn’t have many other options for you either. Mickelson did Mickelson things and his 65 on Sunday helped the conservatives put more money into their leads.

The last three weeks I’ve used Adam Scott, Tiger Woods and Henrik Stenson and haven’t collected $150k!

I’d point out this is my third “Six Beers In” Top 10 of since mid-April.

My Choice: Henrik Stenson — T26

Picks for Leaders: Daniel Berger — MC, Phil Mickelson — T12, Brooks Koepka — T30

Picks for Chasers: Billy Horschel — MC, Charl Schwartzel — 72nd, Tony Finau — MC

Picks for Dreamers: Peter Uihlein — T43, Ben An — MC, Luke List — T56

Picks for Noses: Joaquin Niemann — MC, Harris English — MC

Six Beers In: Kiradech Aphibarnrat — MC, Austin Cook — T6

Drop-Dead Pick: Brooks Koepka — T30

 

This week:

Shinnecock Hills is proper golf and this should be a proper test of all 14 clubs in the bag. All season long I’ve been juggling a few names to go in this spot and they are all heavy hitters. The prize pool is $12 million and the winner gets $2.16 million so even third place this week is dope.

The rough is gnarly but the fairways are a touch wider than 2004. The Poa annua greens will cause problems for average putters. The moment will cause problems for others. The last U.S. Open on a classic track was Oakmont in 2016 and Dustin Johnson won by three.

Sadly for me, I’ve burned him but I have a couple of tricks up my sleeve.

My Choice: Justin Rose

Picks for Leaders: Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day

Picks for Chasers: Phil Mickelson, Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Henrik Stenson

Picks for Dreamers: Patrick Reed, Francesco Molinari, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Dufner

Picks for Noses: Jordan Spieth, Tiger Woods, Sergio Garcia

Six Beers In: Jimmy Walker, Kyle Stanley

Drop-Dead Pick: Justin Rose

This is by far the hardest tournament to handicap as the elite players should step up, but which ones? Every major a handful of big names bite the dust and that’s what I’m trying to avoid.

 

My Life

If you’re stuck on Rose, Fowler, McIlroy, Johnson, etc, welcome to the club! The good/great news is if you’re picking from a group of this magnitude, you should have an excellent chance regardless. I’ve made my case of all of them in The Confidence Factor so read that for extra details.

For my money, this isn’t the week to “sneak” a guy in the back door. Best of luck if you decide on this route but this old classic course should separate the elite from the really good. The forecast is perfect and so is the course so this doesn’t help the outsider.

Here’s my tentative plan:

Travelers: Leishman, Berger, Watson.

QLN: This is year two so I’ll lean heavily on form and the defending champ, Stanley.

The Greenbrier Classic: TBD

John Deere Classic: Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker or Berger (if playing), Kevin Tway.

Barbasol Championship: TBD (brand-new venue)

The Open Championship: Sergio Garcia, plus whoever I didn’t use at the U.S. Open.

RBC Canadian Open: Matt Kuchar, John Vegas, Brandt Snedeker

Barracuda Championship: Martin Laird, TBD

WGC-Bridgestone Invitational: McIlroy, Schwartzel, Koepka

PGA Championship: First-time venue Bellerive Country Club will suggest a top 10 OWGR player. Jason Day and Thomas are obvious choices.

Wyndham Championship: Kevin Na, Ollie Schniederjans

NORTHERN TRUST OPEN: Matt Kuchar will be the only winner in the field at Ridgewood Country Club (2010). He was also T5 in 2014.

Dell Technologies TPC Boston: Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Chris Kirk

BMW Championship: Aronomink is the host and Rose (2010) and Nick Watney (2011) have won TOUR events on that course. Donald Ross course.

The TOUR Championship: There has never been a repeat champion or anyone who has won multiple FedExCups.

Good luck!

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

 

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