OAD — FESJC

The final year as the final tune-up before the U.S. Open as the FEJSC will become the World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational beginning with the 2018-19 PGA TOUR Season. I’ve gotten that wrong all week but I’ve gotten it right this time!

Jeez…

Berger has no problem getting it right around these parts!

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
Valspar Championship Ryan Moore MC 0
Arnold Palmer Tyrell Hatton T69 18,067
WGC-Match Play Patrick Reed T9 163,000
Corales Puntacana Patrick Rodgers T22 27,850
Houston Open Luke List T24 54,162
Masters Jordan Spieth 3rd 748,000
RBC Heritage Cameron Smith T32 35,510
Valero Texas Open Billy Horschel T11 136,400
Zurich Classic Bud Cauley MC 0
Wells Fargo Championship Bryson DeChambeau 4th 369,600

 

THE PLAYERS Francesco Molinari MC 0
AT&T Byron Nelson Jimmy Walker T6 257,950
Fort Worth Invitational Adam Scott T52 16,472
Memorial Tiger Woods T23 76,985
       
Total Events: 31 Top 10s: 10 MC: 6 $5,788,996

Last week:

As I wrote in my defense of using Woods last week, I thought the run of previous winners would not necessitate the use of a heavy hitter. With Bryson DeChambeau defeating Ben An and Kyle Stanley in a playoff with Patrick Cantlay and Peter Uihlein rounding out the top five, that was ONE thing I nailed last week.

Man, Tiger Woods. So close, yet so far.

The best news is that I don’t have to rack my brain on where to use him again but that’s of little consolation as he was tied for the lead at one point. The shocking part of all of this is that the more reps he’s getting on the weekends aren’t helping.

The leaders picks went according to Hoyle and only Justin Rose would have been an upgrade. Now, you can use him for Shinnecock like I probably will or keep him for East Lake. Or. Or. Or.

Jason Day continued his baffling run at this event while Grace and Grillo made the cut but didn’t cash. The dreamers needed one of the five listed above to make some noise. The Picks for Noses all sprung to life with lucky T13 for all! Matsuyama finally found something while Mickelson and Stenson flipped the script on playing MVGC.

My Choice: Tiger Woods — T23

Picks for Leaders: Matt Kuchar — T13, Rory McIlroy — T8, Justin Thomas –T8

Picks for Chasers: Justin Rose — T6, Charl Schwartzel — MC, Marc Leishman — T62

Picks for Dreamers: Jason Day — T44, Branden Grace — T52, Emiliano Grillo — T23

Picks for Noses: Hideki MatsuyamaT13, Phil Mickelson — T13, Henrik Stenson — T13

Six Beers In: Jason Day, Kevin Tway — T65

Drop-Dead Pick: Adam Scott — T35

Scott ended up qualifying Monday in Columbus to qualify for the U.S. Open. Let that be a lesson to gamers moving forward: Just because a guy is ineligible doesn’t make him play “harder” or “better”.

This week:

A short field in Memphis has clear-cut choices that stand head-and-shoulders above the rest. TPC Southwind has christened more than its fair share of first-time winners in recent memory plus plenty without any previous course history.

This opens the door to more guys than I prefer but that won’t be the case next week at Shinnecock Hills.

This week’s Par-70 will play 7,244 not over 7,500 like next week. There have been 10 players post double-digit scores in the last five years and five of them have won.

It’s not a hard course to learn but it can be difficult course to play. With 94 bunkers, 10 water hazards plus reverse-canted doglegs, there are plenty of reasons why par is a solid score this week. Bogeys will be made so find guys who will wipe them out on the two Par-5 holes and who can scramble a bit. It’s clear to see why Mickelson plays here and plays here well annually.

My Choice: Henrik Stenson

Picks for Leaders: Daniel Berger, Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka

Picks for Chasers: Billy Horschel, Charl Schwartzel, Tony Finau

Picks for Dreamers: Peter Uihlein, Ben An, Luke List

Picks for Noses: Joaquin Niemann, Harris English

Six Beers In: Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Austin Cook

Drop-Dead Pick: Brooks Koepka

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Chasers and Dreamers and Noses

This is going to take something special again this week if you’re getting outside the box. Horschel has four straight top-10 finishes while Mickelson has five straight T11 or better. Koepka has two podiums in four trips and is in white-hot form. If Daniel Berger is your choice, he’s going to have to break out of a bit of funk. The good news he’s done this before, last year, to defend his title. Those who forget will need to remember, if you chose not to back the three-peat, Berger MC at Erin Hills then lost in a playoff to Spieth before T5 at JDC.

It’s too much to stick on the shoulders of a 19-year old for me and English hasn’t fired on a consistent enough basis for a OAD pick.

My Life

I’m done worrying about Woods so that’s a partial victory!  Stenson won the call this week very narrowly beating out Koepka. If Koepka was NOT the defending U.S. Open champion, I might be singing a different song. He’s not so I’m not! Stenson also doesn’t play enough events to get in much of a rhythm so at least I’m getting him off a decent week in Columbus.

Psst: Koepka is good enough to play ANY week so I’m not using course history as a tie breaker. Stenson is a pro, will show up, and the course should fit his plan of attack (fairways and greens) perfectly.

Here’s my tentative plan:

U.S. Open: Pool of Rose, Fowler, McIlroy and Thomas.

Travelers: Leishman, Berger, Watson.

QLN: This is year two so I’ll lean heavily on form and the defending champ, Stanley.

The Greenbrier Classic: TBD

John Deere Classic: Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker or Berger (if playing), Kevin Tway .

Barbasol Championship: TBD (brand-new venue)

The Open Championship: Sergio Garcia, plus whoever I didn’t use at the U.S. Open.

RBC Canadian Open: Matt Kuchar, John Vegas, Brandt Snedeker

Barracuda Championship: Martin Laird, TBD

WGC-Bridgestone Invitational: McIlroy, Schwartzel, Koepka

PGA Championship: First-time venue Bellerive Country Club will suggest a top 10 OWGR player. Jason Day and Thomas are obvious choices.

Wyndham Championship: Kevin Na, Ollie Schniederjans

NORTHERN TRUST OPEN: Matt Kuchar will be the only winner in the field at Ridgewood Country Club (2010). He was also T5 in 2014.

Dell Technologies TPC Boston: Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Chris Kirk

BMW Championship: Aronomink is the host and Rose (2010) and Nick Watney (2011) have won TOUR events on that course. Donald Ross course.

The TOUR Championship: There has never been a repeat champion or anyone who has won multiple FedExCups.

Good luck!

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

 

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