OAD — Fort Worth Invitational

Old school Colonial Country Club ,”Hogan’s Alley”, reeks of tradition and proper golf.

That was a massive angle for my selection(s) this week.

What’s Australian for cheese, then?

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
Valspar Championship Ryan Moore MC 0
Arnold Palmer Tyrell Hatton T69 18,067
WGC-Match Play Patrick Reed T9 163,000
Corales Puntacana Patrick Rodgers T22 27,850
Houston Open Luke List T24 54,162
Masters Jordan Spieth 3rd 748,000
RBC Heritage Cameron Smith T32 35,510
Valero Texas Open Billy Horschel T11 136,400
Zurich Classic Bud Cauley MC 0
Wells Fargo Championship Bryson DeChambeau 4th 369,600

 

THE PLAYERS Francesco Molinari MC 0
AT&T Byron Nelson Jimmy Walker T6 257,950
       
Total Events: 29 Top 10s: 10 MC: 6 $5,695,539

Last week:

With the brand-new Trinity Forest on display, we learned that ANYBODY can play there (massive greens, fairways, no rough) if the weather cooperates. Handicapping that field was no joke and full marks to Aaron Wise (listed below)on his win. Marc Leishman (listed below) was second and reinforced his affinity for golf in Texas.

Jimmy Walker, who I’ve never used this late in the year, EVER, provided another week of excellent play on TOUR.

Gamers who believed that Jordan Spieth would have a decided schematic advantage this week weren’t wrong. Spieth tore the place apart but he couldn’t hole any putts. I don’t think the angle of using him was wrong; simply he didn’t play well enough. Sadly, that’s an option EVERY WEEK there’s a tournament. There are no sure things so getting lucky is nothing to be ashamed about ever!

Matt Kuchar was the biggest surprise of the week for two reasons. His streak of 30 in a row ended and his apology for airing his views on Trinity Forest were nothing short of interesting.

My Choice: Jimmy Walker — T6

Picks for Leaders: Adam Scott — T9, Matt Kuchar — MC, Billy Horschel — T21

Picks for Chasers: Jordan Spieth — T21, Ryan Palmer — MC, Marc Leishman — 2nd

Picks for Dreamers: Martin Laird — MC, Rory Sabbatini — T13, Peter Uihlein –T21

Picks for Noses: Hideki Matsuyama — T16, Sergio Garcia — MC

Six Beers In: Aaron Wise — WIN, Graeme McDowell — MC

Drop-Dead Pick: Jordan Spieth

 

This week:

After providing the winner, second, T6 and T9 last week, I’ll be looking to grab a few more dollars this week.

Colonial Country Club is the longest-running event host on TOUR so course history is firmly in play this week. As you’ll see in The Confidence Factor below, there are some players who haven’t need much time to get into the mix here.

Winners are a totally different story.

This event has been going on since 1946 and only five, first-timers at the course have won. This event also doesn’t crown first-time TOUR winners very often either, once this century to be exact. Also, the only guy to defend his title here is named “Hogan” so be aware of that too.

Experience on TOUR and at Colonial is a major deal this week because this old girl is a beauty. At Par-70 and only 7,209 yards it allows just about everyone in the field to have a shot. This place won’t be run over by bombers even thought that was Jon Rahm’s plan last year. He finished a 12-foot putt out of a playoff. There are always exceptions to rules!

If you need info on the course or deeper dives, head arrow down:

Check The Confidence Factor for all other details.

Before you rake my picks across the coals, please be aware on the players I have already used. The rest of these are self-explanatory.

My Choice: Adam Scott

Picks for Leaders: Jimmy Walker, Kevin Kisner, Zach Johnson

Picks for Chasers: Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm

Picks for Dreamers: Adam Hadwin, Jason Dufner, Matt Kuchar, Danny Lee

Picks for Noses: Webb Simpson, Aaron Wise, Ryan Palmer

Six Beers In: Chesson Hadley, Chez Reavie

Drop-Dead Pick: Adam Scott

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Dude, No Spieth???

If you haven’t burned him already, I doubt you’re saving him for Colonial so this would be a deviation in plans. The purse is bigger in majors and FEC Playoff events and he’ll only have to beat about 10 guys at The TOUR Championship. Colonial also doesn’t squeeze out multiple winners frequently so where I think he’ll hit the top 10, hell I do every week, I’m saving him for bigger $$.

Chasers and Dreamers

As always, this is the toughest part to determine because everyone has different strategy. Rose hasn’t played here in a while and Rahm is hardly a veteran. There are other places to play them but a limited invitational field does provide an opportunity to catch lightning in the bottle. It took something for me to get off Koepka this week but I’ve burned Rahm and I can use Rose anywhere, anytime. Those other fellas don’t win enough to use permanent marker this week.

My Life

The Jimmy Walker “free roll” turned in my 10th top-10 finish of the season so I’m not complaining. The folks who went with Wise last week have hit their lottery ticket and it’s not even June.

I’m pivoting to Adam Scott this week because he’s in form, a past champion and really moves it tee-to-green. He has plenty of experience and his window to getting into the U.S. Open is slowly closing by the week. Zach Johnson makes perfect sense as well but I’m going with veteran Aussie instead.

 

Good luck!

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

 

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