OAD — AT&T Byron Nelson

New digs.

Nae trees.

Dig it.

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
Valspar Championship Ryan Moore MC 0
Arnold Palmer Tyrell Hatton T69 18,067
WGC-Match Play Patrick Reed T9 163,000
Corales Puntacana Patrick Rodgers T22 27,850
Houston Open Luke List T24 54,162
Masters Jordan Spieth 3rd 748,000
RBC Heritage Cameron Smith T32 35,510
Valero Texas Open Billy Horschel T11 136,400
Zurich Classic Bud Cauley MC 0
Wells Fargo Championship Bryson DeChambeau 4th 369,600


THE PLAYERS Francesco Molinari MC 0
Total Events: 27 Top 10s: 9 MC: 6 $5,437,589

Last week:


I tried getting cute and I ended up cashing for NOTHING in one of the biggest events of the year.

Leaving Stenson or Day on the sideline an opting for the Italian was an attempt to “double dip”. Instead I’m a dip shit.

The ONLY good news from this week is nobody played Simpson, Walker, Schauffele (!) or Schwartzel.

TPC Sawgrass reinforced its status of unpredictability again this year but I’m going to reread this column 95083 times before making my choice next year.

My Choice: Francesco Molinari — MC.

Picks for Leaders: Henrik Stenson — T23, Sergio Garcia — 70th, Justin Thomas — 11th.

Picks for Chasers: Jason Day — T5, Dustin Johnson — T17, Jon Rahm — T63.

Picks for Dreamers: Ian Poulter — T11, Emiliano Grillo T37, Rory McIlroy — MC.

Picks for Noses: Phil Mickelson — MC, Tiger Woods — T11, Jordan Spieth — T41.

Six Beers In: Brian Harman — MC, Adam Hadwin — T57

Drop-Dead Pick: Henrik Stenson — T23

Learn from it and move on.


This week:

With a brand-new course in play, I’m leaning to veteran studs and guys with exquisite recent form. If the streams cross, even better, but this field suggests somebody from off the radar will steal it. The premium players in the field aren’t exactly firing on all cylinders.

We’re running out of weeks so be aware of that and your situation. You’re going to need people for the FEC Playoffs and the final three majors so that’s seven premium players right there. Toss in WGC-BI and we’re at eight.

If you need info on the course or deeper dives, head arrow down:

Check The Confidence Factor for all other details.


My Choice: Jimmy Walker

Picks for Leaders: Adam Scott, Matt Kuchar, Billy Horschel

Picks for Chasers: Jordan Spieth, Ryan Palmer, Marc Leishman

Picks for Dreamers: Martin Laird, Rory Sabbatini, Peter Uihlein

Picks for Noses: Hideki Matsuyama, Sergio Garcia

Six Beers In: Aaron Wise, Graeme McDowell

Drop-Dead Pick: Jordan Spieth


Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Explain Yourself!?!

Walker is the hottest of the bunch so I’m trying to take the STEWPID out of my selection this week. I’ve already burned some of the guys listed above but Scott is not one of them. This is a massive risk-reward play as he showed serious signs of life at THE PLAYERS on Sunday and the field is slight.

Kuchar and Grace don’t miss cuts so they are safety-first plays, if necessary.

Chasers and Dreamers

Folks that are trying to catch up can do so by nailing the non-conservative selection and Spieth qualifies. He’s a member here so he’s surely ahead of the field on how to play this course. The field is not very deep so asking him to beat only a handful of the world’s best on a course where he has a major advantage is not a ridiculous angle. Especially with most of them not firing on all cylinders!

The Dreamers need to pick one out of the top drawer so that means guys off the beaten path. They also need the chalk to crumble and that’s a big ask. As always, pick better golfers!

My Life

Thankfully the big dollars last week when to guys who weren’t frequent selections so my drop wasn’t terrible.

I had a tough time between Walker, Scott and Kuchar/Grace this week but I prefer Walker’s angle the best. He’s also a proven winner which doesn’t hurt. The other angle is there’s not another event that jumps off the page where I’ll use Walker again. I don’t think I’ve ever had him available after March 1 before as, when healthy, he’s Hawaii/California magic. He doesn’t stink in San Antonio at Valero either!

I can burn Scott down the road so I’m going to be patient. I’m not going to talk you out of him this week as his record in Texas is boss. He found something with the old driver and putter last week. Throw in that putting won’t be a huge factor this week, this fits his profile.

Kuchar and Grace make enough cuts that you can plug them in and live to fight another day while having a chance at a big week. Their recent form doesn’t scream PICK ME I’M SOOOO HAWT but there is value in making cuts. With the field assembled this week, they won’t have too many to leap over to have a solid week.

Good luck!

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).


Thanks for reading!

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