OAD — THE PLAYERS Championship

Ah, THE PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass…

… WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
Valspar Championship Ryan Moore MC 0
Arnold Palmer Tyrell Hatton T69 18,067
WGC-Match Play Patrick Reed T9 163,000
Corales Puntacana Patrick Rodgers T22 27,850
Houston Open Luke List T24 54,162
Masters Jordan Spieth 3rd 748,000
RBC Heritage Cameron Smith T32 35,510
Valero Texas Open Billy Horschel T11 136,400
Zurich Classic Bud Cauley MC 0
Wells Fargo Championship Bryson DeChambeau 4th 369,600

 

       
Total Events: 27 Top 10s: 9 MC: 5 $5,437,589
       

Last week:

Whew. A couple balls in the water on the weekend didn’t help my sanity but the birdie on the final hole sure did! Not having to use McIlroy and collecting a top-five finish was huge as I’m back into the top 10 in my game.

Once again we’re reminded that there is nothing that should be considered a sure thing in fantasy golf. Mickelson is trying to get us all to believe otherwise here and I’m still amazed he’s never won. The good news for the leaders is those picks cashed but not on the level of Jason Day.

My Choice: Bryson DeChambeau 4th

Picks for Leaders: Rickie Fowler T21, Phil Mickelson T5, Webb Simpson T21

Picks for Chasers: Rory McIlroy T16, Chesson Hadley T16, Kevin Streelman MC,

Picks for Dreamers: Ryan Moore MC, Francesco Molinari T16, Lucas Glover MC

Picks for Noses: Tiger Woods T55, Gary Woodland MC, Bill Haas MC

Six Beers In: Robert Streb T42, Harold Varner, III T55

Drop-Dead Pick: Rory McIlroy T16

Learn from it and move on.

 

This week:

If you need info on the course or deeper dives, head arrow down:

Check The Confidence Factor for all other details.

 

My Choice: Francesco Molinari

Picks for Leaders: Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia, Justin Thomas

Picks for Chasers: Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm

Picks for Dreamers: Ian Poulter, Emiliano Grillo, Rory McIlroy

Picks for Noses: Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth

Six Beers In: Brian Harman, Adam Hadwin

Drop-Dead Pick: Henrik Stenson

 

 Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Explain Yourself!?!?

Look at the winners over the last decade here. Good luck in the toughest field on a course that makes even fans watching scratch their heads. In this format, I’m looking to survive and advance. That’s it. Read The Confidence Factor. LOOK HOW MANY GUYS HAVE TOP 10’S RECENTLY??? I’m not trying to crack that code.

Stenson is THE PICK because of form. Garcia hasn’t had the best run lately and his last two years on Sunday just reinforces how UN-AUTOMATIC this pick can be.

Does course history matter this week?

Yes and no. Mainly no. It’s more of a badge of honor to play well here than a trend. This course chews up and spits out the best-of-the-best annually. I’d say more than 100 of them are beaten before they tee off because they don’t have the patience or game to handle it. OH WHAT FUN!

As for course history, go read my preview. There are some startling examples of players on their debut.

There are also examples of premium players who have won here and have gone on to disappoint. Woods, Fowler, Mickelson and Garcia are those names! That’s insane!

It’s hard. Real hard. With real big cash and real big finishing holes. It’s so hard grammer goes out the winda.

My Life

Back in business and back into the top 10 is exciting!

Now, I’m not trying to screw it up.

I know, no Italian has ever won a TOUR event. I’ll ride with T2, promise.

40-something guys aren’t to be trusted either so there’s that.

Part of me believes Jason Day will just show up, shoot 66 every day and beat everyone again.

The other part of me suggests Bud Cauley will lead after 54 holes.

Somewhere in the middle is the answer.

I’ll live to fight another day with some big weapons down the stretch as Stenson has multiple uses come summer and beyond.

 

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

 

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