Ah, THE PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass…

… WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	T11	136,400
Zurich Classic	Bud Cauley	MC	0
Wells Fargo Championship	Bryson DeChambeau	4th	369,600
Total Events: 27	Top 10s: 9	MC: 5	$5,437,589

Last week:

Whew. A couple balls in the water on the weekend didn’t help my sanity but the birdie on the final hole sure did! Not having to use McIlroy and collecting a top-five finish was huge as I’m back into the top 10 in my game.

Once again we’re reminded that there is nothing that should be considered a sure thing in fantasy golf. Mickelson is trying to get us all to believe otherwise here and I’m still amazed he’s never won. The good news for the leaders is those picks cashed but not on the level of Jason Day.

My Choice: Bryson DeChambeau 4th

Picks for Leaders: Rickie Fowler T21, Phil Mickelson T5, Webb Simpson T21

Picks for Chasers: Rory McIlroy T16, Chesson Hadley T16, Kevin Streelman MC,

Picks for Dreamers: Ryan Moore MC, Francesco Molinari T16, Lucas Glover MC

Picks for Noses: Tiger Woods T55, Gary Woodland MC, Bill Haas MC

Six Beers In: Robert Streb T42, Harold Varner, III T55

Drop-Dead Pick: Rory McIlroy T16

Learn from it and move on.

 

This week:

If you need info on the course or deeper dives, head arrow down:

Check The Confidence Factor for all other details.

 

My Choice: Francesco Molinari

Picks for Leaders: Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia, Justin Thomas

Picks for Chasers: Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm

Picks for Dreamers: Ian Poulter, Emiliano Grillo, Rory McIlroy

Picks for Noses: Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth

Six Beers In: Brian Harman, Adam Hadwin

Drop-Dead Pick: Henrik Stenson

 

 Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Explain Yourself!?!?

Look at the winners over the last decade here. Good luck in the toughest field on a course that makes even fans watching scratch their heads. In this format, I’m looking to survive and advance. That’s it. Read The Confidence Factor. LOOK HOW MANY GUYS HAVE TOP 10’S RECENTLY??? I’m not trying to crack that code.

Stenson is THE PICK because of form. Garcia hasn’t had the best run lately and his last two years on Sunday just reinforces how UN-AUTOMATIC this pick can be.

Does course history matter this week?

Yes and no. Mainly no. It’s more of a badge of honor to play well here than a trend. This course chews up and spits out the best-of-the-best annually. I’d say more than 100 of them are beaten before they tee off because they don’t have the patience or game to handle it. OH WHAT FUN!

As for course history, go read my preview. There are some startling examples of players on their debut.

There are also examples of premium players who have won here and have gone on to disappoint. Woods, Fowler, Mickelson and Garcia are those names! That’s insane!

It’s hard. Real hard. With real big cash and real big finishing holes. It’s so hard grammer goes out the winda.

My Life

Back in business and back into the top 10 is exciting!

Now, I’m not trying to screw it up.

I know, no Italian has ever won a TOUR event. I’ll ride with T2, promise.

40-something guys aren’t to be trusted either so there’s that.

Part of me believes Jason Day will just show up, shoot 66 every day and beat everyone again.

The other part of me suggests Bud Cauley will lead after 54 holes.

Somewhere in the middle is the answer.

I’ll live to fight another day with some big weapons down the stretch as Stenson has multiple uses come summer and beyond.

 

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!