The AT&T Oaks Course plays host for the ninth consecutive season as the Valero Texas Open lands in San Antonio.

We’re past the halfway point of the season and events are starting to slim down.

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Total Events: 24	Top 10s: 8	MC: 4	$4,931,589

Last week:

Two weeks ago it was the grandstand finish from Spieth that brought a smile to my smug face.

This week, Cam Smith opened with a pair of 68’s and was right in the hunt heading into the weekend. There’s nothing worse than watching it all fall apart on the two most important days of the tournament! I’d rather have a guy MC than watch the wheels fall off but that’s not a choice I have to make.

The angle was the right one: take somebody off the radar that was playing decently and leave the usual suspects behind. As shown by this exercise, picking the right one is increasingly difficult.

You’ll also need some luck. I didn’t see Casey’s streak of 29 events coming to an end THIS week but it did.

It happens.

Nice week for the Chasers and Team Webb Simpson (way to go Chadders!!).

My advice? Pick better golfers.

 

My Choice: Cameron Smith — T32

Picks for Leaders: Luke Donald — MC, Paul Casey — MC, Matt Kuchar — T23

Picks for Chasers: Brian Harman — T23, Kevin Kisner — T7, Patrick Cantlay — T7

Picks for Dreamers: Webb Simpson — T5, William McGirt — T70

Picks for Noses: Jim Furyk — T70, Jason Dufner — MC, Brandt Snedeker — T24

Six Beers In: Bud Cauley (duh!) — T23 or Russell Knox — T40

Drop-Dead Pick: Matt Kuchar — T23

 

This week:

If you need info on the course or deeper dives, head arrow down:

Check The Confidence Factor for all other details.

My Choice: Billy Horschel

Picks for Leaders: Charley Hoffman, Brendan Steele

Picks for Chasers: Luke List, Ryan Palmer, Pat Perez

Picks for Dreamers: Beau Hossler, Kevin Chappell, Kevin Streelman

Picks for Noses: Sergio Garcia, Satoshi Kodaira, Jimmy Walker

Six Beers In: Brian Gay or Trey Mullinax

Drop-Dead Pick: Charley Hoffman

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Explain Yourself!?!?

Those of you leading don’t have a very difficult choice this week. Those of you chasing do.

With the weather and difficulty of this course, I’m leaning on guys who know their way around and have no problems tee-to-green. Hoffman plays well at TPC Boston but not as well as he plays here.

But Sergio Garcia designed this course and Jimmy Walker LIVES HERE?!?!?!

He sure did as a player consultant with Greg Norman. Wonder why he hasn’t played here until he married a girl from Austin then? I’m saving Garcia for anywhere else he plays well and I’ll have plenty of choices.

Walker has done everything but put together four rounds in a row. The players above him on that list have had better form here and on TOUR. I like Walker this week as support staff but not as the lead dog.

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!