OAD — Valero Texas Open

The AT&T Oaks Course plays host for the ninth consecutive season as the Valero Texas Open lands in San Antonio.

We’re past the halfway point of the season and events are starting to slim down.

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
Valspar Championship Ryan Moore MC 0
Arnold Palmer Tyrell Hatton T69 18,067
WGC-Match Play Patrick Reed T9 163,000
Corales Puntacana Patrick Rodgers T22 27,850
Houston Open Luke List T24 54,162
Masters Jordan Spieth 3rd 748,000
RBC Heritage Cameron Smith T32 35,510
Total Events: 24 Top 10s: 8 MC: 4 $4,931,589
       

Last week:

Two weeks ago it was the grandstand finish from Spieth that brought a smile to my smug face.

This week, Cam Smith opened with a pair of 68’s and was right in the hunt heading into the weekend. There’s nothing worse than watching it all fall apart on the two most important days of the tournament! I’d rather have a guy MC than watch the wheels fall off but that’s not a choice I have to make.

The angle was the right one: take somebody off the radar that was playing decently and leave the usual suspects behind. As shown by this exercise, picking the right one is increasingly difficult.

You’ll also need some luck. I didn’t see Casey’s streak of 29 events coming to an end THIS week but it did.

It happens.

Nice week for the Chasers and Team Webb Simpson (way to go Chadders!!).

My advice? Pick better golfers.

 

My Choice: Cameron Smith — T32

Picks for Leaders: Luke Donald — MC, Paul Casey — MC, Matt Kuchar — T23

Picks for Chasers: Brian Harman — T23, Kevin Kisner — T7, Patrick Cantlay — T7

Picks for Dreamers: Webb Simpson — T5, William McGirt — T70

Picks for Noses: Jim Furyk — T70, Jason Dufner — MC, Brandt Snedeker — T24

Six Beers In: Bud Cauley (duh!) — T23 or Russell Knox — T40

Drop-Dead Pick: Matt Kuchar — T23

 

This week:

If you need info on the course or deeper dives, head arrow down:

Check The Confidence Factor for all other details.

My Choice: Billy Horschel

Picks for Leaders: Charley Hoffman, Brendan Steele

Picks for Chasers: Luke List, Ryan Palmer, Pat Perez

Picks for Dreamers: Beau Hossler, Kevin Chappell, Kevin Streelman

Picks for Noses: Sergio Garcia, Satoshi Kodaira, Jimmy Walker

Six Beers In: Brian Gay or Trey Mullinax

Drop-Dead Pick: Charley Hoffman

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Explain Yourself!?!?

Those of you leading don’t have a very difficult choice this week. Those of you chasing do.

With the weather and difficulty of this course, I’m leaning on guys who know their way around and have no problems tee-to-green. Hoffman plays well at TPC Boston but not as well as he plays here.

But Sergio Garcia designed this course and Jimmy Walker LIVES HERE?!?!?!

He sure did as a player consultant with Greg Norman. Wonder why he hasn’t played here until he married a girl from Austin then? I’m saving Garcia for anywhere else he plays well and I’ll have plenty of choices.

Walker has done everything but put together four rounds in a row. The players above him on that list have had better form here and on TOUR. I like Walker this week as support staff but not as the lead dog.

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

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