The week after the Masters means a week on Hilton Head Island at Harbour Town Golf Links. Of the last 36 winners in this event, 28 have played the previous week at Augusta National. That didn’t seem to bother South Carolina native Wesley Bryan last year!

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
Total Events: 23	Top 10s: 8	MC: 4	$4,896,079

Last week:

The process was rewarded. Spieth rakes at the Masters, period.

I can’t listen to the “well, he shot the best round ever on Sunday to bail everyone out” angle.

He sure did.

And it was magnificent.

The only disappointing part of the week was Fowler’s birdie on the final hole to break the T2 into second and third and chops some cash and points. Some might argue the first two holes on Friday. I’m not. Play them all and see what happens.

Without Reed (burned at Match Play) or Rickie on my radar, I’ll consider this a win. Looking at Reed and Rickie’s past history here, I’m even more surprised it wasn’t.

I was splitting hairs with Rose last week and went with the master of the Masters. I will have Rose for East Lake, Carnoustie or anywhere else he plays. It feels good to get one right.

My Choice: Jordan Spieth – 3rd

Picks for Leaders: Justin Rose – T12, Rory McIlroy – T5

Picks for Chasers: Tiger Woods – T32, Jason Day – T20, Hideki Matsuyama – 19th

Picks for Dreamers: Paul Casey – T15, Ian Poulter – T44, Alex Noren – MC

Picks for Noses: Adam Scott – T32, Sergio Garcia – MC, Charl Schwartzel – MC

Six Beers In: Xander Schauffele, Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, LET’S BREAK THE INTERNET GO TIGER!!!

Drop-Dead Pick: Tiger Woods – T32

 

This week:

I’m changing this column around since we’re almost halfway through the season.

If you don’t like it, I don’t care.

If you need info on the course or deeper dives, head arrow down:

Check The Confidence Factor for all other details. LINK HERE

My Choice: Cameron Smith

Picks for Leaders: Luke Donald, Paul Casey, Matt Kuchar

Picks for Chasers: Brian Harman, Kevin Kisner, Patrick Cantlay

Picks for Dreamers: Webb Simpson, William McGirt

Picks for Noses: Jim Furyk, Jason Dufner, Brandt Snedeker

Six Beers In: Bud Cauley (duh!) or Russell Knox

Drop-Dead Pick: Matt Kuchar

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Explain Yourself!?!?

My pick WD on Wednesday as I was ready to ride Adam Hadwin to the winner’s circle. His WD was a personal matter, says the Twitter, and his impending schedule won’t be affected. THAT DOESN’T HELP ME THIS WEEK, BRAH.

As I noted in The Confidence Factor, there have been no trends for the winner over the last three years. With new-ish greens, new-ish sightlines and more sun and wind, I’m not sure I’m going in blindly with course form this week. Dye courses are difficult so find a skill set that matches.

YES, Dustin Johnson can win this week or any week he plays.

He doesn’t care. He tees it up and goes. Don’t over-think it for him. I’m looking to cash a bigger check with him, that’s all.

Region folks matter?

Nah but plenty of them have been close here. I’ll lean on guys who prefer a bit of Bermuda and can handle the six inches between the ears who embrace the challenge. The more wind, the merrier I say!

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!