OAD — 50th RBC Heritage

The week after the Masters means a week on Hilton Head Island at Harbour Town Golf Links. Of the last 36 winners in this event, 28 have played the previous week at Augusta National. That didn’t seem to bother South Carolina native Wesley Bryan last year!

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
Valspar Championship Ryan Moore MC 0
Arnold Palmer Tyrell Hatton T69 18,067
WGC-Match Play Patrick Reed T9 163,000
Corales Puntacana Patrick Rodgers T22 27,850
Houston Open Luke List T24 54,162
Masters Jordan Spieth 3rd 748,000
       
Total Events: 23 Top 10s: 8 MC: 4 $4,896,079
       

Last week:

The process was rewarded. Spieth rakes at the Masters, period.

I can’t listen to the “well, he shot the best round ever on Sunday to bail everyone out” angle.

He sure did.

And it was magnificent.

The only disappointing part of the week was Fowler’s birdie on the final hole to break the T2 into second and third and chops some cash and points. Some might argue the first two holes on Friday. I’m not. Play them all and see what happens.

Without Reed (burned at Match Play) or Rickie on my radar, I’ll consider this a win. Looking at Reed and Rickie’s past history here, I’m even more surprised it wasn’t.

I was splitting hairs with Rose last week and went with the master of the Masters. I will have Rose for East Lake, Carnoustie or anywhere else he plays. It feels good to get one right.

My Choice: Jordan Spieth – 3rd

Picks for Leaders: Justin Rose – T12, Rory McIlroy – T5

Picks for Chasers: Tiger Woods – T32, Jason Day – T20, Hideki Matsuyama – 19th

Picks for Dreamers: Paul Casey – T15, Ian Poulter – T44, Alex Noren – MC

Picks for Noses: Adam Scott – T32, Sergio Garcia – MC, Charl Schwartzel – MC

Six Beers In: Xander Schauffele, Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, LET’S BREAK THE INTERNET GO TIGER!!!

Drop-Dead Pick: Tiger Woods – T32

 

This week:

I’m changing this column around since we’re almost halfway through the season.

If you don’t like it, I don’t care.

If you need info on the course or deeper dives, head arrow down:

Check The Confidence Factor for all other details. LINK HERE

My Choice: Cameron Smith

Picks for Leaders: Luke Donald, Paul Casey, Matt Kuchar

Picks for Chasers: Brian Harman, Kevin Kisner, Patrick Cantlay

Picks for Dreamers: Webb Simpson, William McGirt

Picks for Noses: Jim Furyk, Jason Dufner, Brandt Snedeker

Six Beers In: Bud Cauley (duh!) or Russell Knox

Drop-Dead Pick: Matt Kuchar

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Explain Yourself!?!?

My pick WD on Wednesday as I was ready to ride Adam Hadwin to the winner’s circle. His WD was a personal matter, says the Twitter, and his impending schedule won’t be affected. THAT DOESN’T HELP ME THIS WEEK, BRAH.

As I noted in The Confidence Factor, there have been no trends for the winner over the last three years. With new-ish greens, new-ish sightlines and more sun and wind, I’m not sure I’m going in blindly with course form this week. Dye courses are difficult so find a skill set that matches.

YES, Dustin Johnson can win this week or any week he plays.

He doesn’t care. He tees it up and goes. Don’t over-think it for him. I’m looking to cash a bigger check with him, that’s all.

Region folks matter?

Nah but plenty of them have been close here. I’ll lean on guys who prefer a bit of Bermuda and can handle the six inches between the ears who embrace the challenge. The more wind, the merrier I say!

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

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