There’s nothing tougher than picking the new Match Play format so I’m glad that’s in the rear-view mirror.

The only thing more difficult is finding a winner at the Golf Club of Houston!

Buckle up!

RAISES HAND

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Total Events: 21	Top 10s: 7	MC: 4	$4,093,917

Last week:

I wasn’t happy when I saw the draw as I fancied Reed before Monday night’s fun. I stuck to my guns and didn’t think it much about anything except knocking out Spieth. Reed does exactly that in the final group match and then had to face…Alex Noren in the round of 16. That road was brutal and I’m NOT COMPLAINING about T9 at all.

Brutal.

Patrick Rodgers gave us a drink served out of a coconut with his 65 on Friday but he didn’t find another to match it. We all got a hangover instead. With a soft prize pool, other than winning or getting second, wasn’t going to help or hurt at Corales

My Choice: Patrick Rodgers, T22

Close Second: Emiliano Grillo, T50, Rory Sabbatini, T50, Graeme McDowell, MC

Outliers: Trey Mullinax, T22, Harris English, T5

Gut Shot(s): Emiliano Grillo, T50

Rank Outsider(s): Roberto Diaz MC, Augusto Nunez T60, Eric Axley T54

 

This week:

I’m changing this column around since we’re almost halfway through the season.

If you don’t like it, I don’t care.

If you need info on the course or deeper dives, head arrow down:

Check The Confidence Factor at PGATOUR.COM for all other details.

My Choice: Luke List

Leaders: Russell Henley, Phil Mickelson, Daniel Berger, RCB

Chasers: Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler

Dreamers: Luke List (shut up), Jason Kokrak, Harris English

Drop-Dead Pick: Russell Henley’s track record here trumps everything else.

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Wait, What?

Argue? Disagree? Whatever is clever!

You do you.

I’ll do me.

We can learn from each other.

I’ll suggest that if you’re chasing and saving the big names for the Playoffs, good for you. There are four Playoff events. If you’re down entering the Playoffs and you need to win two or three events, I’m suggesting that’s probably not going to happen. The chase group will have to take a few more chances while the leaders can pick and choose their spots.

The leaders can be more cautious and thoughtful. This tournament has NOT cranked out “big-name” winners since Mickelson won in 2012. If I’m leading, I’m playing save and getting my pick ready for next week. Picking the winner in Houston could prove more difficult than doing so at Augusta.

The desperate, like me, need a off-the-radar player to come through. Good luck narrowing that down but there’s a few out there that fit the bill. Be sure to check The Confidence Factor above for more details.

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!