OAD — Houston Open 2018

There’s nothing tougher than picking the new Match Play format so I’m glad that’s in the rear-view mirror.

The only thing more difficult is finding a winner at the Golf Club of Houston!

Buckle up!

RAISES HAND

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
Valspar Championship Ryan Moore MC 0
Arnold Palmer Tyrell Hatton T69 18,067
WGC-Match Play Patrick Reed T9 163,000
Corales Puntacana Patrick Rodgers T22 27,850
       
Total Events: 21 Top 10s: 7 MC: 4 $4,093,917

Last week:

I wasn’t happy when I saw the draw as I fancied Reed before Monday night’s fun. I stuck to my guns and didn’t think it much about anything except knocking out Spieth. Reed does exactly that in the final group match and then had to face…Alex Noren in the round of 16. That road was brutal and I’m NOT COMPLAINING about T9 at all.

Brutal.

Patrick Rodgers gave us a drink served out of a coconut with his 65 on Friday but he didn’t find another to match it. We all got a hangover instead. With a soft prize pool, other than winning or getting second, wasn’t going to help or hurt at Corales

My Choice: Patrick Rodgers, T22

Close Second: Emiliano Grillo, T50, Rory Sabbatini, T50, Graeme McDowell, MC

Outliers: Trey Mullinax, T22, Harris English, T5

Gut Shot(s): Emiliano Grillo, T50

Rank Outsider(s): Roberto Diaz MC, Augusto Nunez T60, Eric Axley T54

 

This week:

I’m changing this column around since we’re almost halfway through the season.

If you don’t like it, I don’t care.

If you need info on the course or deeper dives, head arrow down:

Check The Confidence Factor at PGATOUR.COM for all other details.

My Choice: Luke List

Leaders: Russell Henley, Phil Mickelson, Daniel Berger, RCB

Chasers: Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler

Dreamers: Luke List (shut up), Jason Kokrak, Harris English

Drop-Dead Pick: Russell Henley’s track record here trumps everything else.

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Wait, What?

Argue? Disagree? Whatever is clever!

You do you.

I’ll do me.

We can learn from each other.

I’ll suggest that if you’re chasing and saving the big names for the Playoffs, good for you. There are four Playoff events. If you’re down entering the Playoffs and you need to win two or three events, I’m suggesting that’s probably not going to happen. The chase group will have to take a few more chances while the leaders can pick and choose their spots.

The leaders can be more cautious and thoughtful. This tournament has NOT cranked out “big-name” winners since Mickelson won in 2012. If I’m leading, I’m playing save and getting my pick ready for next week. Picking the winner in Houston could prove more difficult than doing so at Augusta.

The desperate, like me, need a off-the-radar player to come through. Good luck narrowing that down but there’s a few out there that fit the bill. Be sure to check The Confidence Factor above for more details.

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

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