Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Total Events: 18	Top 10s: 6	MC: 4	$3,885,000

Last week:

The #NappyFactor brigade rode Sergio Garcia to solo fourth while I was home for the weekend with Ryan Moore. Tiger Woods had the last laugh with T2 but gamers have never played accepted anything less than a W from The Large Cat.

The bright side is I will have Garcia available for THE PLAYERS, The Open and East Lake, if necessary. The upside is the chance; the downside is it could be worse than $312k.

Other than that, my picks were a bit shit. If you play every week, this can happen!

My Choice: Ryan Moore MC

Close Second: Adam Hadwin T12, Tony Finau MC, Sergio Garcia 4th

Outliers: Luke List T16, Ben An MC, Jason Dufner MC

Gut Shot(s): Henrik Stenson MC, Charl Schwartzel T49

Rank Outsider(s): John Huh MC, Steve Stricker T12, Sam Saunders T49

This week:

Bay Hill will be at the mercy of the groundskeeper and the tournament committee. All Tweets from earlier this week suggest the course is in mint condition. It has been dry in Orlando for the last few weeks so it will be up to them to dress it up the way they want it.

The rough is penal, and should be with big targets. Water is in play just as much as it isn’t and well tempt those without patience. With four Par-5 holes on the card and an excellent forecast, there should be birdies and relatively low numbers. Read more about Bay Hill in The Confidence Factor linked here.

I’m leaning on class veterans and the elites this week. I’m not sure why you wouldn’t as rookies annually struggle here. Remember, there are FOUR majors to play plus two more WGC and four FedExCup playoff events. That’s 10 essentially premium players you’ll need.  Pay attention.

My Choice: Tyrrell Hatton

Close Second: Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Francesco Molinari

Outliers: Jamie Lovemark, Luke List, Jason Kokrak

Gut Shot(s): Tiger Woods, Brian Harman

Rank Outsider(s): Patton Kizzire, Ben Martin, Emiliano Grillo

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Tiger Woods

MC

12th

T2

…

One of the greatest fascinations with fantasy golf is when current form meets course form.

This week it will be put to the ultimate test.

Here’s how I’m viewing the situation: I’m going to hurry up and wait.

It’s possible that he could win this week and injure himself later in the season playing soccer with his kids or lifting a jet ski. He could also fall down a flight of stairs or wrap his club around a tree on a recovery shot. I get the reason to play him now.

If Woods wins this week, who is to say he can’t and won’t win again this season? If he wins this week he’ll be in the WGC at Firestone where he’s also won eight times so it’s not the end of the world if you’re not following the herd. He also has a pretty decent record at the Masters and Memorial if you’re scoring at home or new to all of this.

If you’re leading, safety first is sensible.

If you’re hovering, sure, I could make the case.

If you’re trailing and want to just keep up, ok.

If you’re at the bottom, please take him to help all the people like me who aren’t on him this week!

Why Hatton instead of Rose, Day, etc?

It was tough for me to get off Rose but he’s just about worth it anywhere. His final round last week should have him dialed in and I’m not going to talk you off of him.

Day was easier to drop as he’s playing with Woods Thursday and Friday and that putts me off. Check Spieth and Stenson from last week if you need more proof. He’s going to be my choice in Austin for WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play or THE PLAYERS and those prize pools/FEC points are bigger.

I gave McIlroy a deep look but he’s one I just don’t want to be wrong about (again) this year. I have a thing about not breaking guys about of slumps but McIlroy’s class violates plenty of my “rules”. Just not this week.

Don’t forget to check Rob Bolton’s Twitter feed for all the PGATOUR.COM/Fantasy info!

Argue? Disagree? Whatever is clever!

You do you.

I’ll do me.

We can learn from each other.

 

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!