OAD — Arnold Palmer Invitational

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
Valspar Ryan Moore MC 0
       
Total Events: 18 Top 10s: 6 MC: 4 $3,885,000

Last week:

The #NappyFactor brigade rode Sergio Garcia to solo fourth while I was home for the weekend with Ryan Moore. Tiger Woods had the last laugh with T2 but gamers have never played accepted anything less than a W from The Large Cat.

The bright side is I will have Garcia available for THE PLAYERS, The Open and East Lake, if necessary. The upside is the chance; the downside is it could be worse than $312k.

Other than that, my picks were a bit shit. If you play every week, this can happen!

My Choice: Ryan Moore MC

Close Second: Adam Hadwin T12, Tony Finau MC, Sergio Garcia 4th

Outliers: Luke List T16, Ben An MC, Jason Dufner MC

Gut Shot(s): Henrik Stenson MC, Charl Schwartzel T49

Rank Outsider(s): John Huh MC, Steve Stricker T12, Sam Saunders T49

This week:

Bay Hill will be at the mercy of the groundskeeper and the tournament committee. All Tweets from earlier this week suggest the course is in mint condition. It has been dry in Orlando for the last few weeks so it will be up to them to dress it up the way they want it.

The rough is penal, and should be with big targets. Water is in play just as much as it isn’t and well tempt those without patience. With four Par-5 holes on the card and an excellent forecast, there should be birdies and relatively low numbers. Read more about Bay Hill in The Confidence Factor linked here.

I’m leaning on class veterans and the elites this week. I’m not sure why you wouldn’t as rookies annually struggle here. Remember, there are FOUR majors to play plus two more WGC and four FedExCup playoff events. That’s 10 essentially premium players you’ll need.  Pay attention.

My Choice: Tyrrell Hatton

Close Second: Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Francesco Molinari

Outliers: Jamie Lovemark, Luke List, Jason Kokrak

Gut Shot(s): Tiger Woods, Brian Harman

Rank Outsider(s): Patton Kizzire, Ben Martin, Emiliano Grillo

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Tiger Woods

MC

12th

T2

One of the greatest fascinations with fantasy golf is when current form meets course form.

This week it will be put to the ultimate test.

Here’s how I’m viewing the situation: I’m going to hurry up and wait.

It’s possible that he could win this week and injure himself later in the season playing soccer with his kids or lifting a jet ski. He could also fall down a flight of stairs or wrap his club around a tree on a recovery shot. I get the reason to play him now.

If Woods wins this week, who is to say he can’t and won’t win again this season? If he wins this week he’ll be in the WGC at Firestone where he’s also won eight times so it’s not the end of the world if you’re not following the herd. He also has a pretty decent record at the Masters and Memorial if you’re scoring at home or new to all of this.

If you’re leading, safety first is sensible.

If you’re hovering, sure, I could make the case.

If you’re trailing and want to just keep up, ok.

If you’re at the bottom, please take him to help all the people like me who aren’t on him this week!

Why Hatton instead of Rose, Day, etc?

It was tough for me to get off Rose but he’s just about worth it anywhere. His final round last week should have him dialed in and I’m not going to talk you off of him.

Day was easier to drop as he’s playing with Woods Thursday and Friday and that putts me off. Check Spieth and Stenson from last week if you need more proof. He’s going to be my choice in Austin for WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play or THE PLAYERS and those prize pools/FEC points are bigger.

I gave McIlroy a deep look but he’s one I just don’t want to be wrong about (again) this year. I have a thing about not breaking guys about of slumps but McIlroy’s class violates plenty of my “rules”. Just not this week.

Don’t forget to check Rob Bolton’s Twitter feed for all the PGATOUR.COM/Fantasy info!

Argue? Disagree? Whatever is clever!

You do you.

I’ll do me.

We can learn from each other.

 

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

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