OAD– Valspar Championship

This week?

Why?

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
       
Total Events: 17 Top 10s: 6 MC: 3 $3,885,000

Last week:

The flock went to chase Englishman Tommy Fleetwood and what a ride it was. He was T40 after two rounds but thanks to the beauty of a no-cut event, his T14 felt like a win.

There’s not a worse feeling in this game than submitting your pick and seeing EVERYONE on the same guy. I purposely ignore any OAD information on the internet before I post this, including my man Chadders. Very rarely does “the group” win. I remember one year when EVERYONE was on Zach Johnson. I changed my pick and went Jason Dufner. Dufner was second that week at Colonial but “the group” won that week. #ScarredForLife. I’m never looking again!

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

I couldn’t have picked the winner so I cannot be angry.

I had a couple in there for you all and the outliers weren’t terrible.

Last Week:

My Choice: Tommy Fleetwood T14

Close Second: Dustin Johnson T7, Justin Thomas P2, Phil Mickelson WIN

Outliers: Patrick Cantlay T30, Tony Finau T27, Thomas Pieters T37

Gut Shot(s): Paul Casey T12, Xander Schauffele T18

Rank Outsider(s): Dylan Frittelli T55, Webb Simpson T37, Chez Reavie T52

This week:

Windy weather will push me again to guys who can navigate a course that plays longer than the scorecard reads. The greens aren’t on the “enormous” side and neither are the landing areas when trying to cut off the doglegs. The scramblers and putters will get a look this week as well as navigating the greens and chipping isn’t cut-and-dry. It’s back to Bermuda (TifEagle) so that will be a confidence boost for those who aren’t fans of Poa annua.

With a full field on hand and a relatively new overhaul, this will be a tougher selection than last week. Check The Confidence Factor for in-depth details on the course and players.

 

My Choice: Ryan Moore

Close Second: Adam Hadwin, Tony Finau, Sergio Garcia

Outliers: Luke List, Ben An, Jason Dufner

Gut Shot(s): Henrik Stenson, Charl Schwartzel

Rank Outsider(s): John Huh, Steve Stricker, Sam Saunders

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Weather, Man…

Shifting winds take the rookies and inexperience out of it for me.

The most interesting stat from last year was the weather was good and the wind blew from the same direction all four days. There were PLENTY of new faces in the top 20 as the course played the easiest since 2012.

That’s not going to be the case this year.

I’m going experience with a sprinkle of grinder.

Sergio!?!?!

“Saving” guys for later is great but there are no guarantees in fantasy golf. There’s nothing wrong with playing a hunch! I agree that Garcia’s record at THE PLAYERS and The Open are probably more interesting. That’s not the point. I’m suggesting that I could see Garcia making noise this week before his first child is born. Hell, I’m not even using him!

Don’t forget to check Rob Bolton’s Twitter feed for all the PGATOUR.COM/Fantasy info!

Argue? Disagree? Whatever is clever!

You do you.

I’ll do me.

We can learn from each other.

 

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

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