OAD — AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The refrain last week was the WMPO was a tournament you needed to see before you get too old.

I’ll argue that one can make the same argument this week on the Monterrey Peninsula.

Beauty in the eye of the beholder and all that.

Each week brings a different “cool” in my opinion!

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
       
Total Events: 13 Top 10s: 5 Top 25: 7 $3,158,500

Last week:

I had no dog in the Matsuyama fight as I burned him in Shanghai earlier this season. I was disappointed with his T50 in that title defense but not nearly as disappointed as the rest of you who were backing him last week in Scottsdale.

Woof.

It’s unlucky but it was the right play as his career record suggested. I don’t think anyone foresaw any injury issue especially after his dynamite finish on Sunday at Torrey Pines.

Chalk it up to bad luck and move on.

For those of you who don’t believe luck is part of what we do, well, I simply don’t agree!

As for my pick, there’s absolutely nothing worse in OAD than having your guy never threaten during an event. I’d rather have the buzz of being upset that “I got screwed” than having a guy who just hangs around the top 25 all week. Alex Noren had a very nice week and finished T21 but never had a chance to get into the fight. I played the angle of the hot golfer and it didn’t fire. I also thought we were all playing for second behind Matsuyama this week!

Taking a look below, I should be thankful I didn’t pull the string on Fowler or I would have had something to complain about!

I hope you’re learning from my mistakes and minimizing your own.

My Choice: Alex Noren

Close Second: J.B. Holmes, Ryan Palmer, Webb Simpson = ALL MC

Outliers: Martin Laird T9, Zach Johnson T57, Austin Cook T31

Gut Shot(s): Rickie Fowler T11, Harris English MC

Rank Outsider(s): Michael Kim MC, Hunter Mahan MC, Beau Hossler T17

I’m on a two-week bender going in the wrong direction! Save me Bing Crosby!!

 

This week:

The Confidence Factor should give you plenty of clues and angles for the last multi-course tournament of the year. The pro-am format is tedious but the views are spectacular so I’ll take the good with the bad!

The former Clam Bake is a bit of an odd duck. We’ve seen Brandt Snedeker set the tournament record twice. We’ve seen D.A. Points and Bill Murray win the individual and team. We’ve seen Jordan Spieth blows the doors off the field. We’ve seen Phil Mickelson not able to hold the lead on the back nine on Sunday.

Without any Open Championship draws to worry about, I would expect this big-boy field to dominate the benign conditions. There are plenty of household names lining up this week and all of them have knocked the rust off in 2018.

  • World No. 1 Dustin Johnson always plays with The Great One, his father-in-law-to-be Wayne Gretzky and cashes here for fun.
  • Jon Rahm finished T5 in his first try last year.
  • Jordan Spieth had a six-shot lead entering Sunday last year.
  • Rory McIlroy doesn’t mind a bit of links golf and has started his year with a pair of podium finishes in the Middle East.
  • Jason Day picked up his first win since 2016 his last time out at Torrey Pines.

And those are just the guys from the OWGR top 10 playing this week!

Check out The Confidence Factor for more details.

Three courses all measure less than 7,000 yards and pro-am conditions will also mean slight rough and tame greens. I don’t think par is a very good score this week so find guys who can score on Poa annua and avoid any squares on the card. Remember, Snedeker made ONE bogey here when he set the record in 2015.

Uno.

My Choice: Phil Mickelson

Close Second: Brandt Snedeker, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day

Outliers: Chesson Hadley, J.B. Holmes, Nick Watney

Gut Shot(s): Patrick Cantlay

Rank Outsider(s): Matt Jones, James Hahn, Brandon Harkins, Aaron Wise

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Which superstar player do I burn this week?

Good question. You will have plenty of options! I’m leaving Spieth for the Masters forever so you can forget about asking about him the other 40-odd weeks of the year!

If Dustin Johnson is the answer to your question, I’m going to have a hard time arguing. He always plays this course unbelievably well and defends next week at Riviera.

Maybe the easier question is which premium player is best left alone! I’m going with McIlroy on that angle as picking up three new courses this week doesn’t scream “winner”. His talent just might but there are a few who have navigated these tracks and format before.

Jason Day has done everything here but win. He’s also not shy in rattling off back-to-back wins which he’s done twice in his career already!

Why Phil?

Sure, I could save him for Memphis or Shinnecock but I’m going to lean on him where he’s done the most damage. He doesn’t jump off the page anywhere else and is the events all-time leading earner. Good enough for me in a tough week!

Don’t forget to check Rob Bolton’s Twitter feed for all the PGATOUR.COM/Fantasy info!

Argue? Disagree? Whatever is clever!

You do you.

I’ll do me.

We can learn from each other.

 

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

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