THE NORTHERN TRUST OAD

08-23-17

With four events left, I’m going to have to run the table to be respectable.

Gave it a sniff last week so let’s see if I can find a winner!

Glen Oaks might remind you of a course or three you’ve seen already on Tour.

One-and-done

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.

Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.

Last Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

 

2016-17 season: Brand New Day

Season total: $4,444,141; 41 events

  • Wins:
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 10
  • Top 25s: 17
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

Event Golfer Place Money
       
Safeway Open Grayson Murray MC $0
CIMB Classic Hideki Matsuyama T-2 $756,000
WGC-HSBC Champions Martin Kaymer T-40 $62,000
Sanderson Farms Patton Kizzire MC $0
Shriners Chris Kirk T-61 $14,190
OHL Mayakoba  Emiliano Grillo T-10 $175,000
RSM Classic Russell Henley T-10 $150,000
SBS TOC Brandt Snedeker T-14 $122,000
Sony Open Charles Howell, III T-8 $180,000
CB Challenge Jamie Lovemark MC $0
Farmers Insurance Jimmy Walker MC $0
WMPO Brendan Steele T-16 $90,952
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson 65th $15,120
Genesis Open Charl Schwartzel MC $0
Honda Classic Russell Knox MC $0
WGC-MC Justin Rose T-38 $64,000
Valspar Bill Haas T-41 $21,451
Arnold Palmer Henrik Stenson MC $0
Puerto Rico Open Luke List T-37 $12,900
WGC-Match Play Rory McIlroy T-30 $74,000
Shell Houston Open Jon Rahm T-10 $182,000
Masters Jordan Spieth T-11 $223,200
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar T-11 $114,045
Valero Texas Open Charley Hoffman T-40 $21,727
Zurich Classic Thomas Pieters MC $0
Wells Fargo Kevin Kisner MC $0
THE PLAYERS Sergio Garcia T-30 $65,205
AT&T Byron Nelson Brooks Koepka T-50 $18,090
DEAN & DELUCA Bud Cauley T-41 $24,050
Memorial Dustin Johnson MC $0
FedEx St. Jude Classic Billy Horschel T-4 $252,000
U.S. Open Rickie Fowler T-4 $420,334
Travelers Paul Casey T-5 $248,200
Quicken Loans Patrick Reed T-17 $99,400
Greenbrier Tony Finau T-7 $228,975
John Deere Classic Daniel Berger T-5 $189,840
The Open Adam Scott T-22 $88,000
RBC Canadian Bubba Watson T-42 $42,200
WGC-BI Branden Grace T-28 $73,562
PGA Championship Tommy Fleetwood T-61 $21,300
Wyndham Webb Simpson 3rd $394,400

Thermometer:

Sometimes going with the “well he named his daughter after the tournament ” angle works!

I wish more would name their kids after their favorite tournaments!

VALSPAR, I SAID PICK UP YOUR ROOM NOW!!!

Might as well run the table from here!

Cue: laughter

Last week:

Only one I could have chosen that finished higher was The Man Without a Hat. Not bad but too little too late.

My Choice: Webb Simpson — 3rd

Close Second: Ryan Moore — T-24, Bill Haas — T-75

Outliers:, Lucas Glover — T-28, Kyle Stanley — MC, Haotong Li — MC

Gut Shot(s): Kevin Na — T-7, Brandon Hagy — MC

Rank Outsiders: Peter Malnati — T-50, William McGirt — MC

A couple of all’s and plenty of nothings, sadly

What else is new?

Keys this Week:

With $10 million potentially on the line or rather a chance to have a chance to catch it, I would expect the big-name players to surface again this week.

Looking at the winners in the FEC Playoff events over time, it’s my angle to lean on those who aren’t afraid of the field, course or the moment.

There are not many outliers on that list so I’m not going to try and reinvent the wheel here.

Last of the Mohicans

With only five events (including this week) left, it’s time to release the hounds. With four of those events with monster prize pools, it makes it even easier. Here’s who I have left (Top 30 FEC ranking) and thoughts on each:

#2 Justin Thomas: Ready, fire, aim as he’s just added a major as his fourth victory on the season.

#10 Brian Harman: Both of his career wins are on Bent (JDC, Eagle Point) and East Lake is only non-Bent course of the four being used in the Playoffs.

#12 Pat Perez: West Coast player that should embrace the Poa this week but nothing better than T-19 since finishing T-2 at Eagle Point.

#13 Adam Hadwin: Finished T-5 at Firestone but came back with two less-than-ideal rounds to MC at Quail Hollow. Gulp.

#14 Marc Leishman: Woof. Classic fail here. Why is he still alive on this list? #Mismanagement.

#17 Kyle Stanley: His ball-striking is an asset wherever he goes but putting for dough seems to be the hangup. Since his win at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm he has nothing better than T-41 in five tries with three MCs.

#20 Jason Dufner: Probably the least risky player on this list outside of Thomas, Dufner won at Memorial in June and rattled off four rounds of 68 or better last week at Sedgefield.

#26 Gary Woodland: He’ll get a big look this week because of his power and penchant for GIR. He was 19-under in a close call at RBC Canadian a month ago.

#27 Wesley Bryan: The rookie has done enough already in a fantastic first season for me to wring one more start out of him.

#29 Jhonattan Vegas: One big late season result can move you into the top 30.

My Weekly Finalists:

My Favorites: You can see the entire list at mikeglasscott.com 

My Choice: Justin Thomas

Close Second: Marc Leishman, Jason Dufner, Francesco Molinari

Outliers:, Ollie Schniederjans, Ian Poulter, Graham DeLaet

Gut Shot(s): Jason Day

Rank Outsiders: Robert Garrigus, Martin Flores

 

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

Remember, if you don’t see a guy in my choices, it’s more than likely that I have already selected them.

Who do I save???

If you’re leading, you have a plan and surely won’t need my help!

If you’re trailing, there’s no point in taking great players with you to the final weeks if you can’t win.

Having the winner at East Lake doesn’t mean much if you finish outside the money.

For you baseball fans, it’s Game 6 and you’re trailing 3-2 in the series. Pitch everyone tonight because you’re trying to force Game 7. Worry about that later…

The winner this week will be…

20-under par or lower so find a guy who’s not afraid to make a bushel of birdies and is patient enough to handle less-than-perfect conditions if the joint gets soaked.

Based on that, I’m leaning to a veteran so that means a rookie like J.T. Poston will win this week.

Because I suck at this game.

Whatever.

That’s what I wrote last week. The winner was a veteran (Stenson) and a rookie (Schniederjans) almost pipped him at the wire!

Close!

Good Luck!

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