Young studs and classic course horses will cross the radar screen this week at TPC Deere Run.
The ONLY thing I’m sure about this week is you better have a horse that has no problem making plenty of birdies and doing it over multiple days. Par is NOT a decent score this week.
Just ask this guy as he knows a thing or three about getting it around here:
Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.
Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.
Last Season: Il Disastro
Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events
- Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
- Seconds: 0
- Thirds: 1
- Top 10s: 9
- Top 25s: 18
- MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)
2016-17 season: Brand New Day
Season total: $3,405,864; 35 events
- Seconds: 1
- Top 10s: 9
- Top 25s: 15
- MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).
|Safeway Open||Grayson Murray||MC||$0|
|CIMB Classic||Hideki Matsuyama||T-2||$756,000|
|WGC-HSBC Champions||Martin Kaymer||T-40||$62,000|
|Sanderson Farms||Patton Kizzire||MC||$0|
|OHL Mayakoba||Emiliano Grillo||T-10||$175,000|
|RSM Classic||Russell Henley||T-10||$150,000|
|SBS TOC||Brandt Snedeker||T-14||$122,000|
|Sony Open||Charles Howell, III||T-8||$180,000|
|CB Challenge||Jamie Lovemark||MC||$0|
|Farmers Insurance||Jimmy Walker||MC||$0|
|AT&T Pebble Beach||Phil Mickelson||65th||$15,120|
|Genesis Open||Charl Schwartzel||MC||$0|
|Honda Classic||Russell Knox||MC||$0|
|Arnold Palmer||Henrik Stenson||MC||$0|
|Puerto Rico Open||Luke List||T-37||$12,900|
|WGC-Match Play||Rory McIlroy||T-30||$74,000|
|Shell Houston Open||Jon Rahm||T-10||$182,000|
|RBC Heritage||Matt Kuchar||T-11||$114,045|
|Valero Texas Open||Charley Hoffman||T-40||$21,727|
|Zurich Classic||Thomas Pieters||MC||$0|
|Wells Fargo||Kevin Kisner||MC||$0|
|THE PLAYERS||Sergio Garcia||T-30||$65,205|
|AT&T Byron Nelson||Brooks Koepka||T-50||$18,090|
|DEAN & DELUCA||Bud Cauley||T-41||$24,050|
|FedEx St. Jude Classic||Billy Horschel||T-4||$252,000|
|U.S. Open||Rickie Fowler||T-4||$420,334|
|Quicken Loans||Patrick Reed||T-17||$99,400|
With four of my last five picks landing T-7 or better, you’d think I’d be elated in my performance.
I’ve never been a fan of using defending champions and that’s what won (Daniel Berger) at FESJC.
Rickie Fowler couldn’t catch record-setting Brooks Koepka at the U.S. Open.
Jordan Spieth, who I spent at the Masters, won in his first try at the Travelers beating Berger in a playoff.
Kyle Stanley won for the first time in five years at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm.
Xander Schauffele, a rookie, won last week at Greenbrier.
Picking winners isn’t easy and top 10’s shouldn’t be shunned.
But as #Chadders reminds me, and most gamers probably agree, HE WANTS WINNERS.
Congrats to all who had Schauffele or Streb as either one of those selections should have helped you jump up the standings! I had Streb in my weekly home game so while I was disappointed he didn’t win, I also gained valuable points on the season.
My Choice: Tony Finau — T-7
Close Second: Keegan Bradley — T-50
Outliers: Jimmy Walker — T-18, Curtis Luck — T-20, Kevin Streelman — T-29
Gut Shot(s): Danny Lee — T-9
Keys this Week:
Not a bad haul last week without barely opening a resource. Let’s hope paralysis by analysis hasn’t returned!
The TPC Deere Run, by absolutely no secret, is one of the easiest courses on Tour annually so that will make the field broader to choose from.
As we’ve seen over the years, course-horses Stricker and Johnson, even past their prime, have dominated here.
Most gamers also “met” Jordan Spieth here in 2013. Those same gamers weren’t surprised one bit when he lifted the trophy again in 2015.
Brian Harman is really the only “other” to win here since Stricker’s three-peat and coincidentally he’s having the best season of his life.
Young, up-and-comers? Sure!
Veteran studs? Absolutely!
Make sure the guy you’re leaning on this week has no problem going low as 19-under-par is the WORST winning score here in six years.
My Weekly Finalists:
Daniel Berger: His last three finishes suggest he’s in fine form (Win, MC, P-2) and I’ll suggest he’s the best player in the field regardless if he’s never played here before.
Brian Harman: I used to have the running, factual joke on Harman that if he had a top 10 at an event, cross him off the list because all of his top 10’s came and different events. He’s trashed that theory and that helps as he was the champ here in 2014.
Charley Hoffman: I’d be surprised if he was left in the stable as he’s already cycled through some courses where he’s racked up mad cash. He was eighth at Erin Hills and T-3 at Travelers in his last two so ride that hot hand. Or save him for TPC Boston.
Zach Johnson: The numbers don’t lie here. If I’m leading, this is a no-brainer selection.
Steve Stricker: Whether it has been on the Champions or regular Tour, he’s been cashing. This includes T-16 at Augusta and T-16 at Erin Hills against big fields on big tracks. Tough choice between him and ZJ this week but his form pushes him above for me.
Ryan Moore: The ONLY thing that bothers me this week about him is one rusty round here and you’re dead. Check my preview for last year’s “bad” rounds and how many there were. The thing that I LIKE this week is there’s not a better place to get dialed back in than an easy course where you’re the defending champ. He’s a big player at Wyndham as well if you’re torn.
My Choice: Daniel Berger
Close Second: Brian Harman
Outliers: Jamie Lovemark, Danny Lee
Gut Shot(s): Kevin Streelman
Rank Outsiders: Daniel Summerhays, Luke List, Nick Taylor, Brandon Hagy
QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:
Remember, if you don’t see a guy in my choices, it’s more than likely that I have already selected them. Check the table above!
I’m leading, it’s Stricker or ZJ, right?
They are both a zillion under here. They both play annually if not injured. Johnson’s recent form might deter but Stricker’s does not.
The winner this week will be…
20-under-par or lower so find somebody who’s hot and has no problem putting multiple low rounds together. I’d lean accurate/putter over GIR/dodgy putter. Look at the last six winners…
Should I burn…
Throw a dart.
Drop a pen.
Have your dog pick.
Next week The Open Championship will require a premium selection as will WGC-BI, PGA Championship and all four FEC events. Luckily there aren’t many, if any, in the field this week that would cover those bases so fire at will.
NEXT WEEK will bring more questions into play but I’m leaning international next week (cough, Scott, cough).