07-12-17

Young studs and classic course horses will cross the radar screen this week at TPC Deere Run.

The ONLY thing I’m sure about this week is you better have a horse that has no problem making plenty of birdies and doing it over multiple days. Par is NOT  a decent score this week.

Just ask this guy as he knows a thing or three about getting it around here:

One-and-done

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.

Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.

Last Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 season: Brand New Day

Season total: $3,405,864; 35 events

• Wins:
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds:
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 15
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Event	Golfer	Place	Money
Safeway Open	Grayson Murray	MC	$0
CIMB Classic	Hideki Matsuyama	T-2	$756,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Martin Kaymer	T-40	$62,000
Sanderson Farms	Patton Kizzire	MC	$0
Shriners	Chris Kirk	T-61	$14,190
OHL Mayakoba	Emiliano Grillo	T-10	$175,000
RSM Classic	Russell Henley	T-10	$150,000
SBS TOC	Brandt Snedeker	T-14	$122,000
Sony Open	Charles Howell, III	T-8	$180,000
CB Challenge	Jamie Lovemark	MC	$0
Farmers Insurance	Jimmy Walker	MC	$0
WMPO	Brendan Steele	T-16	$90,952
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	65th	$15,120
Genesis Open	Charl Schwartzel	MC	$0
Honda Classic	Russell Knox	MC	$0
WGC-MC	Justin Rose	T-38	$64,000
Valspar	Bill Haas	T-41	$21,451
Arnold Palmer	Henrik Stenson	MC	$0
Puerto Rico Open	Luke List	T-37	$12,900
WGC-Match Play	Rory McIlroy	T-30	$74,000
Shell Houston Open	Jon Rahm	T-10	$182,000
Masters	Jordan Spieth	T-11	$223,200
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	T-11	$114,045
Valero Texas Open	Charley Hoffman	T-40	$21,727
Zurich Classic	Thomas Pieters	MC	$0
Wells Fargo	Kevin Kisner	MC	$0
THE PLAYERS	Sergio Garcia	T-30	$65,205
AT&T Byron Nelson	Brooks Koepka	T-50	$18,090
DEAN & DELUCA	Bud Cauley	T-41	$24,050
Memorial	Dustin Johnson	MC	$0
FedEx St. Jude Classic	Billy Horschel	T-4	$252,000
U.S. Open	Rickie Fowler	T-4	$420,334
Travelers	Paul Casey	T-5	$248,200
Quicken Loans	Patrick Reed	T-17	$99,400
Greenbrier	Tony Finau	T-7	$228,975

Thermometer:

With four of my last five picks landing T-7 or better, you’d think I’d be elated in my performance.

I am.

I’ve never been a fan of using defending champions and that’s what won (Daniel Berger) at FESJC.

Rickie Fowler couldn’t catch record-setting Brooks Koepka at the U.S. Open.

Jordan Spieth, who I spent at the Masters, won in his first try at the Travelers beating Berger in a playoff.

Kyle Stanley won for the first time in five years at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm.

Xander Schauffele, a rookie, won last week at Greenbrier.

Picking winners isn’t easy and top 10’s shouldn’t be shunned.

But as #Chadders reminds me, and most gamers probably agree, HE WANTS WINNERS.

I’m trying!

Last week:

Congrats to all who had Schauffele or Streb as either one of those selections should have helped you jump up the standings! I had Streb in my weekly home game so while I was disappointed he didn’t win, I also gained valuable points on the season.

My Choice: Tony Finau — T-7

Close Second: Keegan Bradley — T-50

Outliers: Jimmy Walker — T-18, Curtis Luck — T-20, Kevin Streelman — T-29

Gut Shot(s): Danny Lee — T-9

Keys this Week:

Not a bad haul last week without barely opening a resource. Let’s hope paralysis by analysis hasn’t returned!

The TPC Deere Run, by absolutely no secret, is one of the easiest courses on Tour annually so that will make the field broader to choose from.

As we’ve seen over the years, course-horses Stricker and Johnson, even past their prime, have dominated here.

Most gamers also “met” Jordan Spieth here in 2013. Those same gamers weren’t surprised one bit when he lifted the trophy again in 2015.

Brian Harman is really the only “other” to win here since Stricker’s three-peat and coincidentally he’s having the best season of his life.

Young, up-and-comers? Sure!

Veteran studs? Absolutely!

Make sure the guy you’re leaning on this week has no problem going low as 19-under-par is the WORST winning score here in six years.

My Weekly Finalists:

My Favorites:

Daniel Berger: His last three finishes suggest he’s in fine form (Win, MC, P-2) and I’ll suggest he’s the best player in the field regardless if he’s never played here before.

Brian Harman: I used to have the running, factual joke on Harman that if he had a top 10 at an event, cross him off the list because all of his top 10’s came and different events. He’s trashed that theory and that helps as he was the champ here in 2014.

Charley Hoffman: I’d be surprised if he was left in the stable as he’s already cycled through some courses where he’s racked up mad cash. He was eighth at Erin Hills and T-3 at Travelers in his last two so ride that hot hand. Or save him for TPC Boston.

Zach Johnson: The numbers don’t lie here. If I’m leading, this is a no-brainer selection.

Steve Stricker: Whether it has been on the Champions or regular Tour, he’s been cashing. This includes T-16 at Augusta and T-16 at Erin Hills against big fields on big tracks. Tough choice between him and ZJ this week but his form pushes him above for me.

Ryan Moore: The ONLY thing that bothers me this week about him is one rusty round here and you’re dead. Check my preview for last year’s “bad” rounds and how many there were. The thing that I LIKE this week is there’s not a better place to get dialed back in than an easy course where you’re the defending champ. He’s a big player at Wyndham as well if you’re torn.

My Choice: Daniel Berger

Close Second: Brian Harman

Outliers: Jamie Lovemark, Danny Lee

Gut Shot(s): Kevin Streelman

Rank Outsiders: Daniel Summerhays, Luke List, Nick Taylor, Brandon Hagy

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

Remember, if you don’t see a guy in my choices, it’s more than likely that I have already selected them. Check the table above!

I’m leading, it’s Stricker or ZJ, right?

They are both a zillion under here. They both play annually if not injured. Johnson’s recent form might deter but Stricker’s does not.

The winner this week will be…

20-under-par or lower so find somebody who’s hot and has no problem putting multiple low rounds together. I’d lean accurate/putter over GIR/dodgy putter. Look at the last six winners…

Should I burn…

Throw a dart.

Drop a pen.

Have your dog pick.

Next week The Open Championship will require a premium selection as will WGC-BI, PGA Championship and all four FEC events. Luckily there aren’t many, if any, in the field this week that would cover those bases so fire at will.

NEXT WEEK will bring more questions into play but I’m leaning international next week (cough, Scott, cough).

Good Luck!