05-31-17

The run of famous names continues this week as the Memorial Tournament opens its doors for the 42nd consecutive year at Muirfield Village Golf Club.

One-and-done

 

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.

Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.

 

Last Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

 

2016-17 season: Brand New Day

 

Season total: $2,385,930; 29 events

• Wins:
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds:
• Top 10s: 5
• Top 25s: 7
• MCs (9): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Event	Golfer	Place	Money
Safeway Open	Grayson Murray	MC	$0
CIMB Classic	Hideki Matsuyama	T-2	$756,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Martin Kaymer	T-40	$62,000
Sanderson Farms	Patton Kizzire	MC	$0
Shriners	Chris Kirk	T-61	$14,190
OHL Mayakoba	Emiliano Grillo	T-10	$175,000
RSM Classic	Russell Henley	T-10	$150,000
SBS TOC	Brandt Snedeker	T-14	$122,000
Sony Open	Charles Howell, III	T-8	$180,000
CB Challenge	Jamie Lovemark	MC	$0
Farmers Insurance	Jimmy Walker	MC	$0
WMPO	Brendan Steele	T-16	$90,952
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	65th	$15,120
Genesis Open	Charl Schwartzel	MC	$0
Honda Classic	Russell Knox	MC	$0
WGC-MC	Justin Rose	T-38	$64,000
Valspar	Bill Haas	T-41	$21,451
Arnold Palmer	Henrik Stenson	MC	$0
Puerto Rico Open	Luke List	T-37	$12,900
WGC-Match Play	Rory McIlroy	T-30	$74,000
Shell Houston Open	Jon Rahm	T-10	$182,000
Masters	Jordan Spieth	T-11	$223,200
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	T-11	$114,045
Valero Texas Open	Charley Hoffman	T-40	$21,727
Zurich Classic	Thomas Pieters	MC	$0
Wells Fargo	Kevin Kisner	MC	$0
THE PLAYERS	Sergio Garcia	T-30	$65,205
AT&T Byron Nelson	Brooks Koepka	T-50	$18,090
DEAN & DELUCA	Bud Cauley	T-41	$24,050

 

Thermometer:

Good to see I had Kisner a month ago when he MC at Eagle Point!

With nothing inside the top 30 over a six week stretch, I have seriously considered abandoning the format/game altogether.

I figured if I did that I would make some people angry as their AUTOMATIC FADE play would disappear.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

No.

Time to panic?

Keep reading…

 

Last week:

My Choice: Bud Cauley — T-41

Close Second: Jason Dufner — MC

Outlier: Chris Kirk — T-67

Gut Shot: Zach Johnson — T-63

Rank Outsiders: Nick Taylor — T-61, Kevin Tway — T-18, Ben Martin — T-57 and Kyle Reifers — MC

 

Keys this Week:

With the last three winners all breaking their maidens on Tour and all three doing so in a playoff, I would suggest this might be a week to reach outside the box.

Looking at the previous winners, most of the them tend to fair pretty well at Augusta so that means par five scoring, GIR and premium short gamers.

If you’re going to stretch this week, do so with the fact that this purse is a monster compared to “normal” weeks on Tour. I’m not sure if throwing all caution to the wind is the proper play this week but what the hell do I know?

 

My Weekly Finalists:

I explain in more details in my preview what I’m looking for on the course.

 

My Favorites:

Dustin Johnson: Is it easier to beat a 120-man invitational field or a major championship field? Some will answer 29 guys at East Lake. You have options but I can’t ignore a guy who’s worst finish is T-13 THIS YEAR.

Jordan Spieth: Is it easier to beat a 120-man invitational field or a major championship field? Some will answer 29 guys at East Lake. Folks that are trailing who need to get back into business can’t afford to be patient.

Hideki Matsuyama: He rakes here and Augusta National because his ball-striking puts him into multiple par-breaking opportunities.

Matt Kuchar: He’s a billion under par here since 2009. He is the recent course horse.

Tony Finau: He’s played here twice and has collected on T-8 and T-11.

 

My Choice: Dustin Johnson

Close Second: Tony Finau

Outlier: Emiliano Grillo

Gut Shot: Sean O’Hair

Rank Outsiders: Patrick Cantlay, Morgan Hoffmann, Jamie Lovemark, Scott Piercy

 

 

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

 

You swung and missed on Jason Day at Byron Nelson as he finished second. No love on his home course?

Good point.

He gave it a run for 54 holes last year before bottoming out to T-27. Remember, TPC Four Seasons was the site of his first win and a couple other top 10’s so something there fits his eye. Not even three wins at this stage last year could pop him so I’m abstaining. The law of averages says he can’t play this poorly forever but almost 10 years is a big enough sample to say otherwise.

Why have you left Rahm off the list?

Because I figure everyone has burned him by now. I’m going to be out of starts on him in everything shortly and frankly I don’t care. He’s killing it everywhere and this week shouldn’t be any different. 100 % on board.

Should I burn…

Throw a dart.

Drop a pen.

Have your dog pick.

48 weeks. 48 guys. Plenty to choose from!

Marc Leishman has an excellent record here while Brian Harman has three top 10’s in his last four starts.

Charl Schwartzel is another who plays well here but his wrist injury has given me pause.

Webb Simpson and Emiliano Grillo hit it awfully well tee-to-green and could factor.

 

Good Luck!