Valspar Championship OAD

03-08-17

I’m terrified of snakes even though have no arms and no legs.

“The Snake Pit” stretch of holes at Innisbrook’s Copperhead (snake again) course should get the attention of the field this week.

Be afraid of my picks more than the fake snake…

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.

Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.

 

Last Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

 

2016-17 season: Brand New Day

 

Season total: $1,529,262; 16 events

  • Wins:
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds:
  • Top 10s: 4
  • Top 25s: 6
  • MCs (4): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda).

 

Event Golfer Place Money
       
Safeway Open Grayson Murray MC $0
CIMB Classic Hideki Matsuyama T-2 $756,000
WGC-HSBC Champions Martin Kaymer T-40 $62,000
Sanderson Farms Patton Kizzire MC $0
Shriners Chris Kirk T-61 $14,190
OHL Mayakoba  Emiliano Grillo T-10 $175,000
RSM Classic Russell Henley T-10 $150,000
SBS TOC Brandt Snedeker T-14 $122,000
Sony Open Charles Howell, III T-8 $180,000
CB Challenge Jamie Lovemark MC $0
Farmers Insurance Jimmy Walker MC $0
WMPO Brendan Steele T-16 $90,952
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson 65th $15,120
Genesis Open Charl Schwartzel MC $0
Honda Classic Russell Knox MC $0
WGC-MC Justin Rose T-38 $64,000

 

Thermometer:

Since I haven’t had a top 10 since the first event of 2017, I’d say it’s not too fucking good.

Dustin Johnson was No. 1 on my list last week but the other four guys STANK up the joint.

The only consolation last week was having Tyrell Hatton as my gut shot and he finished 10th.

I’m glad I’ve saved Johnson for down the road so he can pick up a T-27 somewhere to add to my impressive collection.

 

Keys this Week:

Valspar is hard, just like OAD picks for most of us, so I’m sticking with fundamentals to get me out of this streak of hellacious picking.

The Copperhead course requires premium ball-striking or ultra-premium short game to compete.

When par is a decent score, it should eliminate more than half of the field to start. Most guys are used to ripping it and not caring where it lands and making 20 or more birdies a week. That’s not the case here as frustration, strategy, execution and taking a few bogeys will be winning formula.

I’m looking for those who have been here before and can handle a bit of strife. The guys who understand that they will not birdie themselves out of trouble this week will shine. Grinding pars will be important, especially with that stretch of holes (The Snake Pit) to wrap things up.

 

My Weekly Finalists:

I explain in more details in my preview what I’m looking for on the course.

 

Henrik Stenson: If anything, going home from Mexico early, sick or not, should have him rested and ready for a course he’s found to his liking the last two years. He’s done everything but win at Bay Hill (next week, home game) so keep that in mind before you IMPUSLSE BUY.

Bill Haas: I love him on courses where par is important and this qualifies easily. He was T-4 GIR last week and another performance like that might see him lead after 54 holes again this year.

Justin Thomas: As long as his WD at the Wednesday Pro-Am doesn’t scare you off, surely his T-18 and T-10 the last two year on this track won’t. His current form is beyond blazing.

Gary Woodland: With top five finishes in two of his last three Tour events and a former champ here it makes almost too much sense.

Charles Howell, III: This is another track where he hasn’t had any problems hitting the top 10. He’s played the weekend in his last nine events and seven have gone for T-15 or better.

 

My Choice: Bill Haas

Close Second: Graham DeLaet

Outlier: Luke Donald

Gut Shot: Adam Hadwin

Rank Outsider: Ollie Schniederjans

 

 

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

Ryan Moore has hit the top five the last two seasons here so why is he out?

The last two seasons Moore came into the event with lightning coming out of his golf bag. This season he enters on the back of T-61, MC and T-28 so I’ll gladly pass. Historically he plays well at Memorial and Wyndham and will defend at the JDC.

 

Good Luck!

Thanks for reading!

Hit me up at mikeglasscott@gmail.com or on Twitter (@MikeGlasscott) if you have any questions!

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