The world’s best climb over 7,000 feet above sea level outside Mexico City to chase down $1.660 million from a prize fund of $9.75 million.
There are a few angles in play this week but some of you will read this just to fade me.
I can’t say that I blame you…
Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.
Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.
Last Season: Il Disastro
Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events
- Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
- Seconds: 0
- Thirds: 1
- Top 10s: 9
- Top 25s: 18
- MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)
2016-17 season: Brand New Day
Season total: $1,465,262; 15 events
- Seconds: 1
- Top 10s: 4
- Top 25s: 6
- MCs (6): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda).
HIDE YOUR EYES!
|Safeway Open||Grayson Murray||MC||$0|
|CIMB Classic||Hideki Matsuyama||T-2||$756,000|
|WGC-HSBC Champions||Martin Kaymer||T-40||$62,000|
|Sanderson Farms||Patton Kizzire||MC||$0|
|OHL Mayakoba||Emiliano Grillo||T-10||$175,000|
|RSM Classic||Russell Henley||T-10||$150,000|
|SBS TOC||Brandt Snedeker||T-14||$122,000|
|Sony Open||Charles Howell, III||T-8||$180,000|
|CB Challenge||Jamie Lovemark||MC||$0|
|Farmers Insurance||Jimmy Walker||MC||$0|
|AT&T Pebble Beach||Phil Mickelson||65th||$15,120|
|Genesis Open||Charl Schwartzel||MC||$0|
|Honda Classic||Russell Knox||MC||$0|
Nobody, besides my Indiana Hoosiers, is happier to see Facking February come to an end. The Groundhog Day nature of my OAD picks have driven me to drink even more than my basketball team and, if you’ve seen them play, you’ll have sympathy for my liver.
Anyhow, it was GREAT to read an interview with Russell Knox AFTER he MC to learn that he presses here because of going close to winning the first two times he played here.
I listed Scott, Fowler and Garcia Nos. 1, 2 and 3 last week and they finished T-14, WIN and T-14. I guess I should listen to myself as I also had Dustin Johnson No. 1 at Riviera.
Keys this Week:
Reader Brad S. (name redacted to protect the innocent)reached out to me on Monday and suggested that he was going to use a lesser-known player because there is no cut this week and wanted my thoughts on that.
Here you go:
It’s not the WORST idea but it’s also not the best for a myriad of reasons:
Big boy players usually win big boy events and this qualifies. The last four winners of WGC events are Adam Scott, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama.
The prize pool is ridiculous and the name of OAD is collecting the most cash/points throughout the year. Remember second place pays over a million this week and third will hit almost $600k.
The argument that this is a new course and anything can happen is another silly angle. Drew didn’t make this case but it made me look if this is truth or fiction.
The Olympic Course in Rio was brand new and nobody had played it. Justin Rose eeked out Henrik Stenson for gold and Matt Kuchar took home bronze. I could argue, quite easily in fact, that they were the three of best players in that field.
When Gil Hanse gave Doral the massive makeover Patrick Reed, Dustin Johnson and Adam Scott won on the “new” course.
Chambers Bay, site of the 2015 U.S. Open, was never in play before. Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Branden Grace and Louis Oosthuizen were in contention with two holes to play.
Aronomink was the fill-in host for Quicken Loans National when Congressional was preparing for the U.S. Open and Justin Rose won there as well.
Baltusrol hadn’t been used in over 10 years and the top finishers there were Jimmy Walker, Day, Daniel Summerhays, Branden Grace, Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama. I’d point out that T-7 were Martin Kaymer, Henrik Stenson and Robert Streb.
Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy are the winners at Crooked Stick in the only two times the Indiana course was used for the BMW.
Zach Johnson and Jason Day are the two winners at Conway Farms.
I could go on and on.
The moral of the story: When big boy fields get together on big boy courses with the big boy prize pools, big boys take home the big cardboard check.
Remember, the WORST players to recently win a WGC event are Russell Knox (2 wins on Tour, both last season) and Shane Lowry (1 Tour win, 1 European Tour win and 1 European Tour win as an amateur). Lowry also led by four shots after 54 holes at Oakmont last year if you forgot.
NOW, NOBODY said figuring out which stud is going to win this week but you’ll find more details in my preview
Remember, the largest prize pool happen in the WGC events, THE PLAYERS, four majors and four FEC Playoff events. If your belief is save the big guys for the “off-week” events because the fields are slighter, you’re entitled to do so. Don’t @ me when Steven Bowditch or Vaughn Taylor wins and your premium guy doesn’t. It’s golf. It happens!
My Weekly Finalists:
I explain in my preview what I’m looking for on the course.
Dustin Johnson: This should be self-explanatory but for those of you too lazy to read he’s already won three of these in the last four years. He’s destroyed courses where par is a good score and has no problem racking up par breakers either.
Henrik Stenson: Sizzling current form because he chops wood from tee-to-green makes him a safe and easy choice this week.
Justin Rose: As pointed out above, he has to see himself as a favorite after his work in Rio on a course that also required birdies.
Rickie Fowler: His complete bag is always the angle and he has no problem rolling in putts or racking up birdies.
Adam Scott: The defending champ is ticking along but hasn’t put it all together just yet.
My Choice: Justin Rose
Close Second: Henrik Stenson
Outlier: Gary Woodland
Gut Shot: Tyrell Hatton
Rank Outsider: Chris Wood or Jhonattan Vegas
QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:
Why didn’t you stick (enter name of really good, highly popular golfer in this space) this week?
I like guys who are HOT and HOTTER in these events so I’m not going to stretch to break a guy out of a funk or slump. You can also see the table above on the guys I have already burned through.
McIlroy: Returns after a rib problem, why CHANCE it now when I can fire him after some reps? Exactly…and he DESTROYED Quail Hollow, site of the PGA Championship, a few years ago.
Spieth: The Masters or Erin Hills.
Garica: THE PLAYERS or Royal Birkdale.
Should I just burn a player that I won’t use later in the year, like a Euro or Asian Tour player?
No. The prize pool and history of this event suggests the complete opposite as noted above. I understand that picking winners is difficult but saving them for later in the year also guarantees nothing. Last year into the Playoffs I had Rose, Thomas, Grillo and Spieth. My best finish of the four events was a whopping T-17 in a field of 30 with Spieth at The Tour Championship.
Thanks for reading!
Good luck and hit me up at firstname.lastname@example.org or on Twitter (@MikeGlasscott) if you have any questions!