Fantasy Golf: AT&T Pebble Beach OAD

02-08-17

It’s going to be bear lighting the fire to get the clam bake going this week!

Check the video that J.B. Holmes shot earlier in the week:

You know what else blows?

My recent picks in this format!

Ba-dum-tish! Try the veal! I’ll be here all week!

One-and-Done

Each week I painfully writhe and retch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.

Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.

 

Last Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

 

2016-17 season: Brand New Day

 

Season total: $1,450,142; 12 events

  • Wins:
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds:
  • Top 10s: 4
  • Top 25s: 6
  • MCs (4): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO).

 

Event Golfer Place Money
       
Safeway Open Grayson Murray MC $0
CIMB Classic Hideki Matsuyama T-2 $756,000
WGC-HSBC Champions Martin Kaymer T-40 $62,000
Sanderson Farms Patton Kizzire MC $0
Shriners Chris Kirk T-61 $14,190
OHL Mayakoba  Emiliano Grillo T-10 $175,000
RSM Classic Russell Henley T-10 $150,000
SBS TOC Brandt Snedeker T-14 $122,000
Sony Open Charles Howell, III T-8 $180,000
CB Challenge Jamie Lovemark MC $0
Farmers Insurance Jimmy Walker MC $0
WMPO Brendan Steele T-16 $90,952

 

Thermometer:

Brendan Steele was adequate but playing the weekend in even par didn’t help when 17-under was the score to make the playoff. Sadly, my GUT SHOT pick finished second in the playoff to Matsuyama and could have won if he had gotten ANY of his putts to the hole in overtime.

 The calculated gamble was to play Matsuyama when he was BOILING hot in the fall. You can count the guys on two fingers who have defended their titles in recent years so expecting a defending champ to do the business is not always sound strategy.

The worst possible scenario unfolded for me last week as the entire world was on Hideki Matsuyama. I played him earlier in the year and since the name of the game is One and DONE, well, you get the picture. The optimist in me says I only lost $500k because I racked up a solo second with him in the fall. The pessimist in me says based on his course history I should have saved him for this week. I wonder what I’ll say if he wins THE PLAYERS and takes home almost $2 million…

 

Keys this Week:

Ah, the final multi-course pro-am of the year! Sadly, the weather will have a serious effect on the proceedings Thursday and Friday and it will be a mad dash on Saturday to make the cut.

So be it.

Everyone has to play all three courses to get one last shot at Pebble Beach on Sunday. One can argue that the rain will make hitting fairways EASIER at the usually impossible Spyglass Hill. One can also argue that premium iron players who throw darts will have the most chances at birdies. With the rain softening the course and slowing down the greens, it might not be the end of the world.

But if the wind is howling? Now we got problems…

Throw in a pro-am format and this has the makings for an absolute train wreck.

When in doubt, I’ll suggest two routes this week:

The premium player who has played enough rounds here to understand what it takes to survive and advance. Or throw caution to the wind and hope Vaughn Taylor 2.0 wins and you haven’t burned a big player.

Both strategies can be argued for and against.

Nobody said this would be easy!

The last year the weather was naughty was 2014 so course historians might want to look there for clues.

Check my preview for more details!

 

My Weekly Finalists:

 

Phil Mickelson: He’ll wear two gloves and have no problem pretending he’s in Scotland. His best chance at victory on Tour was here last year in very good weather where he let a six-shot lead evaporate on Sunday. He’s in good nick and will embrace the challenge.

Jordan Spieth: Here’s another stud who believes he holds the mental advantage when conditions go south. He shot three rounds of 67 (and one of 78) in 2014 to finish T-4. With nothing outside the top 10 in his last five worldwide, this makes sense. With the way he plays Augusta, it doesn’t.

 

Brandt Snedeker: Supreme risk-reward play but he should be eager to get back on the horse after not being able to close out at Torrey Pines. He’s won this twice in the last four years and has played the event forever.

 

Dustin Johnson: He won the shortened, 54-hole event here last decade and has a deep CV for weather-related performances. I never like loading up after a MC though. That’s why you won’t see Jason Day on here even though he hits balls in the snow in Ohio all winter.

 

Jimmy Walker: He fought his swing and the weather in 2014 to win by a shot. His course history in this event is incredible. He recent form is the opposite.

 

My Choice: Phil Mickelson

Close Second: J.B. Holmes

Outlier: Pat Perez

Gut Shot: Roberto Castro

 

 

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

 

Patrick Reed usually plays great here! You leaving him out??

Yeah, I am. It’s called ONE and DONE so if I’m not comfy, I’m out. I didn’t like the finish last week. I don’t like the elements this week. I can use him in about 20 other events where the conditions are better and he’s firing on all cylinders.

 

No young fellas like J.J. Spaun?

The last rookie to win here still hasn’t happened. Since one or two hit the top 20 annually, I’m not going this route. I’m not going to talk you out of Spaun because his recent form suggests he’s playing well but the history doesn’t support the play. And those who have played Torrey well (Sneds, Day, Walker, Phil) also have figured it out here so you’ll have that going for you, which is nice.

 

Thanks for reading!

Good luck and hit me up at mikeglasscott@gmail.com or on Twitter (@MikeGlasscott) if you have any questions!

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