Fantasy Golf: Sony Open OAD

01-11-17

Only 39 more events to go!

After his T-21 last year, Justin Thomas didn’t hit my radar and I paid for it.

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.

 

Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THEY PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.

 

 

2015-16 Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

 

2016-17 season: Brand New Day

Season total: $1,179,190, 7 events

  • Wins:
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds:
  • Top 10s: 3
  • Top 25s: 4
  • MCs (2): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC).

 

Thermometer:

Brandt Snedeker didn’t make anything on the greens at Kapalua and finished T-14 for $122k. Although the cash for T-14 at this limited field event feels like a top 10, I’ll chalk this down as a missed opportunity. Of the five players listed last week as potential selections, Snedeker was the worst of the bunch. Click on the link above for the proof.

 

2016-17 Uses

Event Golfer Place Money
Safeway Open Grayson Murray MC $0
CIMB Classic Hideki Matsuyama T-2 $756,000
WGC-HSBC Champions Martin Kaymer T-40 $62,000
Sanderson Farms Patton Kizzire MC $0
Shriners Chris Kirk T-61 $14,190
OHL Mayakoba  Emiliano Grillo T-10 $175,000
RSM Classic Russell Henley T-10 $150,000
SBS TOC Brandt Snedeker T-14 $122,000

 

Keys this Week — Sony Open

For in-depth details, check out my preview by clicking here, but there’s hardly any mystery. Of the last five winners, four have gone 20-under or better on a course that’s par 70. With only two par fives, make sure you have somebody who makes plenty of birdies on par fours and can handle a few on par threes. Waialae has above average size greens so I’d find a few guys who don’t mind rolling the rock on Bermuda because they should be hitting ’em in regulation.

With a birdie-fest on a short course, the list of contenders always expands in this event. In the last few years the winner has checked plenty of boxes. World journeyman? Check (Gomez). Rookie with no experience? Check (Henley). Up-and-coming big winner? Check times two (Walker, back-to-back). Short hitter? Check (Wilson). Big hitter? Check (Palmer).

 All the bases have been covered so it should make for an easy or difficult week! It’s up to you!

 

My Weekly Finalists:

OWGR listed in (  )

 Jimmy Walker (20): Two time champion kills in this part of the world. His recent ball-striking might give me pause but I can’t ignore WIN, WIN and T-13 with a million rounds in a row here under par (17). The PGA Champion from last season also kills at Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines plus he claims Riviera is his favorite track. He’s also a past champion at TPC San Antonio so write that down for later if you’re not using him this week.

Charles Howell, III (104): The safest bet on the board as he’s NEVER MC here in 15 tries. The knock on CH3 is he doesn’t win and that’s fair but 11 T-27’s or better is plenty of warm and fuzzy.

Pat Perez (84): Here’s another veteran player who is on song right now with T-7, WIN and T-3 in his last three starts on Tour. Oh, and he’s only MC twice from 15 tries, one year with a bad shoulder, at Waialae.

Gary Woodland (50): T-3 and T-13 the last two years reinforces that above average ball-striking also plays at Waialae. As always, his putter will be the determining factor but he loves resort courses. He was T-2 at Mayakoba to wrap up his 2016.

Paul Casey (15): I love that he shot 62 here in 2015, his last visit. I also love his recent form and ball-striking. The Scottsdale resident only has one Tour victory but his consistent, top finishes from last season are not forgotten.

 

My Choice: Charles Howell, III

Close Second: Jimmy Walker

Outlier: Jerry Kelly. Sure I know he’s 50 but he’s hit the top 10 the last three years and absolutely rakes here including a title in 2002.

 

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

 1.) How can you not list Spieth or Matsuyama among the top five choices?!??!?

2.) Where’s the course record holder Justin Thomas!?!?!

 

ANSWER(S) OF THE WEEK:

1.) That’s a pretty easy answer especially if you’re a fan of course history as neither one of them have any. It’s also an easy answer if you’re planning for the long run. I’m not wasting either one of them in a $6 million purse in a shootout on a short track. I’ll buy the argument using them against a weaker field than say a major or OWGR but I’m taking my chances in the biggest of the big events with these two studs.

2.) This makes more sense than question No. 1. He’s hot and flowing with confidence but naming the guys who have won back-to-back on Tour over the last few years is quite impressive. The players that won more than twice in a year is just as impressive. I get that he holds the course record. I’m using him probably in every other format.

 

Thanks for reading!

Good luck and hit me up at mikeglasscott@gmail.com or on Twitter (@MikeGlasscott) if you have any questions!

 

 

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