10-19-16

For those of you who would like to dig a little deeper.

Same sh!t, different day as the new season started about as well as the previous one ended for me in OAD.

I trotted out Grayson Murray hoping to have a Emiliano Grillo-esque moment and pop a decent finish on his Tour membership debut.

Wrongo.

MC.

Looking back on last season, I’m getting out of the HOPE business in 2016-17.

No more hoping.

Here’s my point of reference:

2015-16 Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

Not enough wins.

Nil seconds.

One third. ONE?

Three podiums?!?!

Not good enough.

 

Event	Golfer	Place	Money
Frys.com	Brooks Koepka	T-41	$21,000
Shriners	Scott Piercy	T-25	$44,832
CIMB	Anirban Lahiri	T-21	$78,400
WGC-HSBC Champions	Adam Scott	T-70	$42,000
Sanderson Farms	Patrick Rodgers	T-20	$41,356
OHL Mayakoba	Patton Kizzire	T-58	$13,764
RSM	Brendon de Jonge	T-33	$27,049
HTOC	Brandt Snedeker	T-3	$381,000
Sony	Kevin Kisner	T-5	$220,400
CB Challenge	Ryan Palmer	T-17	$75,897
Farmers	Phil Mickelson	MC	$0
Waste Management	Hideki Matsuyama	WIN	$1,170,000
AT&T Pebble Beach	Jimmy Walker	T-11	$143,500
NTO	Dustin Johnson	4th	$326,400
Honda	Luke Donald	T-61	$13,115
WGC-Cadillac Champ	Henrik Stenson	T-28	$79,428
Valspar	Danny Willett	T-22	$52,959
Arnold Palmer	Scott Brown	T-27	$41,934
WGC-Dell Match Play	Rickie Fowler	T-53	$63,000
Puerto Rico Open	Graham DeLaet	T-11	$66,000
Shell Houston Open	Louis Oosthuizen	MC	$0
Masters	Bubba Watson	T-37	$50,250
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	T-9	$147,500
Valero Texas Open	Charley Hoffman	WIN	$1,116,000
Zurich Classic	Daniel Berger	T-20	$64,909
Wells Fargo	J.B. Holmes	T-53	$16,589
THE PLAYERS	Rory McIlroy	T-12	212,625
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Dufner	T-24	54,020
Colonial	Kevin Chappell	MC	$0
Memorial	Paul Casey	MC	$0
FESJC	Gary Woodland	MC	$0
U.S. Open	Jason Day	T-8	$247,806
Quicken Loans	Patrick Reed	T-39	$28,290
Barracuda	Jon Rahm	MDF	$6,420
WGC-BI	Shane Lowry	T-36	$73,500
Barbasol	Kyle Reifers	T-35	$15,808
The Open	Sergio Garcia	T-5	$310,797
RBC Canadian Open	David Hearn	MC	$0
PGA Championship	Branden Grace	T-4	$405,000
Travelers	Ryan Moore	T-17	$83,490
John Deere Classic	Zach Johnson	T-34	$24,240
Wyndham	William McGirt	MC	$0
The Barclays	Justin Rose	T-31	$45,220
DBC	Justin Thomas	MC	$0
BMW	Emiliano Grillo	T-32	$46,021
TOUR Championship	Jordan Spieth	T-17	$166,600

 

Fachts:

This is only the fourth CIMB Classic so course form is minimal but does exist.

Only major changes this year were the name of the course from KLG&CC to TPC Kuala Lumpur and 20 yards or so on the scorecard.

The event was previously played as an unofficial event and it was played on different courses so don’t cross the streams when you look back.

The winning score has improved each year  from -13 to -17 to a whopping -26 last year.

 

Brendan Steele sat on 20-under after 54 holes, shot 68 and lost by two shots.

Ryan Moore won the first two events.

Gary Woodland finished second or T-2 in the first two events.

Paspalum grass is on the fairways, rough and greens similar to Mayakoba, Kiawah Isalnd and Trump International in Puerto Rico.

Only 77 players to beat this week for a win prize of $1.2 million.

 

2016-17 season

Season total: $0; 1 event

• Wins:
• Seconds:
• Thirds:
• Top 10s:
• Top 25s:
• MC: Murray, Safeway Open

 

Thermometer:

Kelvin says absolute zero is within sight…

 

Keys this Week:

At just 7,000 yards there will be plenty that will overpower this place so I believe scoring will again be a major factor. A look at last year’s top 10 didn’t reveal many pretenders so I’m leaning on big-boy players to do the work again this year. On a resort course, keeping it out of the jungle and water is required and so is hitting it tight on the above-average sized greens.

 

My Weekly Finalists:

OWGR listed in (  )

 

Justin Thomas (34): Birdie machine kills par fives.

Paul Casey (12): Hotter than a most takes on sports talk radio but hasn’t won since 2009.

Hideki Matsuyama (18): Won last week in Japan.

Patrick Reed (7): Anytime, anywhere.

Ryan Moore (32): Twice champion on this layout.

 

My Choice: Matsuyama

Close Second: Reed

Outlier: Gary Woodland works for those of you looking to “save” some premium players for down the road. Woodland’s only victory on Tour is at Valspar.

Stratagem: With 15 of the top OWGR top 50 on the property this week, I don’t see a reason to stray too far from the chalk in a field this short. An easier scoring course will help the less fortunate but instead of their ONE good round springing them the leaderboard, they’ll need probably three or even four to crack the big bucks.

Premium players eat small fields for lunch and destroy, short, easy courses. Premium ball-strikers will create the most chances to make birdie. Premium putters will hole the most putts to circle them. This track played nearly 2.5 shots under-par last year and while it might not be completely bent over again this year, I don’t see 2 inches of rough and 11′ on the Stimpmeter causing many problems.

 

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

• Why the change in strategy?
• Where’s Adam Scott?

 

ANSWER(S) OF THE WEEK:

• I’m changing my strategy one week in as FULL-ON PANIC, not Widespread, has infected me. I tried being sensible last week but no more. There are 46 more events. I’m using premium players from now on and taking my chances. It’s not like it can get any worse!
• No more “smart” picks
• No more “angle” picks
• #Heavyweights
• Scott gets left off this week as he’ll be one of my picks at the four majors or four FEC Playoff events.

Check out my preview for Golfweek.com below for even more player and course details.

Good luck!