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Texas Children’s Houston Open

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The first of four this spring in the Lone Star state takes us to the muni at Memorial Park.

Texas Children’s Houston Open

Memorial Park Golf Course

Houston, Texas

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Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks

Bet365: Top of the Board  

Scottie Scheffler (11/4): Trying to become the first player to defend the title at THE PLAYERS Championship, the Dallas resident is no stranger to making recent history. No player has won three straight entered events since Dustin Johnson in early 2017, but Scheffler has course history to rely upon here as well. Finishing T9 in 2022 came after holding the 54-hole lead in the 2021 tournament and finishing tied for second. Ball-Striking is a major factor this week, and nobody is doing it better on TOUR than the only multiple winner of 2024. Fade him at your own discretion.

Wyndham Clark (12/1) has been the bridesmaid to Scheffler in his previous two victories. Already a winner this season at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the 2023 U.S. Open champion lipped out a putt at THE PLAYERS Championship to force extra holes with the eventual champion. Cashing T16 on his last visit, he will not be flying blind this week.

Sahith Theegala (18/1) lives in the north suburb of Spring, Texas, and already has four top-10 paydays to his name in 2024, including his last two starts at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. Breaking through winning the Fortinet Championship last September, the former Pepperdine man has not slowed down. This time last year, he was gearing up for his first appearance at the Masters, where he finished ninth on debut. With the rough down and trouble off the tee minimal, I would expect a big week from him.

Will Zalatoris (20/1) grew up in Dallas, so a bit of breeze will hardly bother his tee-to-green prowess. Making his tournament debut, he won’t have to navigate a point of reference from the previous fall editions. I know, I know, I tipped him at THE PLAYERS, and he easily missed the weekend. Taking on a new event to tune up for Augusta suggests he’s happy with where his game is, regardless of the result at TPC Sawgrass. Big, breezy, deep tracks (Torrey Pines, Southern Hills, Augusta National) rarely bothered him.

With three trophies from the state of Texas already on his mantle, Jason Day (22/1) returns to Memorial Park for the fourth time in search of another piece of hardware. Another who handles big tracks well (two-time winner at Torrey Pines), the Australian’s power and short game should line up nicely again this year. Never missing the cut in his first four visits, he’s posted eight of 12 rounds in the red.

Reigning champion Tony Finau (25/1) has only hit the top 10 once this season, and it was at one of his favorite stops, Torrey Pines GC. Missing the cut last week at Valspar after T45 at THE PLAYERS suggests he’s looking for a spark before the first major of the season in two weeks. The big hitter made over 415 feet of putts to win by four shots in 2022. Repeating that number would be a feat. I’ll pass.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Keith Mitchell (35/1) provides a quandary this week. Are we getting the back nine 31 on Saturday at Valspar or the 77 from the final group on Sunday? A superb driver of the golf ball, his short game will need a quick fix to contend again this week.

Mackenzie Hughes (50/1) won’t mind another week on big greens where his putter can get hot and stay hot. Like many this week, having big targets off the tee boxes and into the greens should grab his attention. Hitting the podium last week, he will remember this time last year when he was in the final eight of the WGC-Match Play up the street in Austin.

Tom Hoge (50/1) has been cruising along, under the radar for most of 2024. Outstanding with his iron play, he will have plenty of opportunities to pay them off on these big greens. Posting T28 or better in five straight before T54 at THE PLAYERS, five of his last eight resulted in T17 or better.

Jake Knapp (55/1) won at Vidanta Vallarta on Paspalum for his first TOUR victory. The Greg Norman layout didn’t have penal rough and featured huge greens. Oh, and he was on the podium at Torrey Pines. Dots connected.

Andrew Novak (100/1) continues to stripe it on approach, and that will travel again this week. After three straight top-10 paydays halted at THE PLAYERS, he ranked in the top 10 in SG: Approach last week and added T17 at Valspar to his impressive start to the season.

Playing college golf in the area at Texas A&M, Cameron Champ (110/1) should be comfortable in this part of the world. Bundle him with another Aggie, Chandler Phillips (140/1), who picked up his career-best payday of T3 last week at Valspar playing with Champ, and off to the window you go.

Robert MacIntyre (110/1) grabbed T6 at Vidanta Vallarta. Let’s see if the theory plays again this week. Missing the cut just once (THE PLAYERS) in his last five, he’s heating up with the weather.

Dylan Wu (175/1) has picked off T26, T19, and T24 in three of his last four. The best finish of the bunch was at THE PLAYERS Championship.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseMemorial Park Golf Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,435.
Par:70 (35-35).
Greens:Poa Trivialis; 7,000 square feet.
Stimpmeter:12 feet.
Rough:Overseeded Rye barely over an inch.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play21/2/4.
Architect(s):John Bredemus (1934); Tom Doak (2019).
Defending Champion (event):Tony Finau (-16).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record (latest):62; Tony Finau (Round 2, 2022); Scottie Scheffler (Round 2, 2021).
72 Hole Tournament Record (March):First event at Memorial Park in March.
72 Hole Tournament Record264; Tony Finau (2022).
Fact of the Week:First event at Memorial Park since November of 2022.
Fact of the Week II:The second of three municipal courses used on TOUR (Torrey Pines South & North) this season.

Memorial Park Golf Course

The eyes of Texas and the PGA TOUR are on the municipal Memorial Park Golf Course. Making the first of four stops in the Lone Star state, the Texas Children’s Houston Open will host for the fourth time since 2020.

Joining Torrey Pines Golf Club as the only other municipal tracks used on TOUR, the 2019 Tom Doak redesign plays to Par-70 and has plenty of meat on the bone. Everything is bigger in Texas, and at 7,435 yards tipped out, Memorial Park qualifies.

The yardage from the tips will be different for the third time in four events. The common denominator is all four events played over 7,400 yards.

Sporting five Par-3 holes and three Par-5 holes, the Par-70 also provides three Par-4 holes 490 yards or more. The trio of Par-5 holes was the most difficult on TOUR for the 2020-21 season and ranked T2 for the 2021-2022 year.

Adding four bunkers and expanding and shifting the tee box 23 yards on Hole No. 17 are the cosmetic changes for 2024.

Water penalty areas are in play on only four holes, a welcome respite from wet and sandy Florida.

The most significant alteration for 2024 is moving the event from November to March. The firm and fast Bermuda gives way to Ryegrass overseed on the fairways and rough. Mowing the rough barely over an inch, down from 2.25 inches in 2022, provides more opportunities to attack hole locations from off the fairway.

The Poa Trivialis greens, checking in as some of the largest on TOUR at 7,000 square feet on average, will be on display for the first time. Missing the big targets will come with closely mown areas that repel mishit shots.

With the rough not as penal and the course playing softer than the fall editions big hitters and ball-strikers should thrive. Ranking in the top 11 in the most difficult tracks in the three previous editions, the average winning score is 13-under-par.

Tony Finau owns the tournament scoring record of 16-under, set in November of 2022. Posting 62 in Round, he joined Scottie Scheffler as the co-course record holder.

Texas Children’s Houston Open

Hosting for the fourth time, TCHO returns to its traditional late March/early April spot on the calendar.

Highlighted by World No. 1, the field of 144 players includes 10 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Finau, who led or shared the lead after 18, 36, and 54 holes is the only previous winner at Memorial Park in the field.

The defending champion ran his total to 19-under before coming home in 38 (+3).

The field will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

On the line is a purse of $8.4 million, with the winner taking home $1.512 million, collecting 500 FedExCup points, and an invitation to the Masters in three weeks.

This is the last week to qualify for the Masters through the OWGR Top 50.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen
Butterfield BermudaCamilo Villegas
The RSM ClassicLudvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati

Recent Winners – Texas Children’s Houston Open

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2023No eventNo event in since November 2022.
2022Tony Finau (-16)Went as low as 19-under before closing with 38. Won by four shots.
2021Jason Kokrak (-10)Scottie Scheffler shot 69 on Sunday with the 54-hole lead, but couldn’t close for his first TOUR victory.
2020Carlos Ortiz (-13)Played the week before the Masters in November, Oritz was just one of three players 10-under or better.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

EventSelectionEarnings
The SentryCollin Morikawa690,500
Sony Open in HawaiiCorey Conners18,592
The American ExpressAdam Hadwin310,800
Farmers Insurance OpenJason Day0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJordan Spieth70,125
WM Phoenix OpenMatt Fitzpatrick156,200
The Genesis InvitationalMax Homa329,000
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau145,125
Cognizant ClassicRussell Henley32,850
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler4,000,000
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipWill Zalatoris0
Valspar ChampionshipSam Burns0
   
Total Winnings: 5,753,192

Recapping Last Week – Valspar Championship

MY CHOICE: Sam Burns – MC

After missing the cut at the most lucrative event of the season, I decided to dumb it down to get back to business at Palm Harbor.

Entering the 2024 event on solo sixth, win, and win, I believed Sam Burns to be the safest of the safe.

I was the wrongest of the wrong.

The kick in the nuts? Bogey at the last to miss when the lead was only 7-under. Anyone who made the cut last week had a legit chance to catch fire on the weekend.

Nope.

We move on, salty AF.

Other to Consider:

Brian Harman: Odd track record here, but the way he’s played in the last two big boy events, I can’t see the angle to fade him. MC 70-74.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout: Each week appears to be more comfortable. Cashing T24 at Riviera and T13 at TPC Sawgrass is my proof. Three more rounds in the 60s on a tough layout for T9.

Justin Thomas: Coming off a missed cut, he should be raring to go. His talent suggests using him for a bigger purse. He can also get hot and stay hot. My Old Kentucky home is in two months. Birdied the first hole on Saturday to tie the lead and then played the final 17 holes in NINE OVER. Sorry to those of you who were on board. T64.

Longshots

Adam Schenk – T33

Adam Hadwin – T5

Adam PacMan Jones

Adam West

Adam Viniateri

Taylor Montgomery – MC

This Week – Texas Children’s Houston Open

MY CHOICE: Wyndham Clark

Third time the charm? He’s one lip-out away from potentially having two wins on the season. Instead, he’s barely mentioned because of the man who has beaten him. I don’t have to worry about form, and I’m excited to see how he reacts this week. Surely, he can make the cut!!!

Or am I the “new Chadders”?

Stay tuned!

Other to Consider:

Sahith Theegala: I had trouble getting off of him this week and I might change it up before the bell sounds. Top-10 paydays from his last two events, a full bag, and he’s impossible not to like.

Tony Finau: I’ll wait until later in the summer when he finds some more.

Jason Day: Proven record in Texas comes with a perfect 3-3 here. Burned me already this season on a course he loves at Torrey Pines.

Tom Hoge: TCU man has produced a steady stream of results in 2024. Nobody made more feet of putts at TPC Sawgrass. Not many made more doubles or worse. Less water = mo money!

Lone Star Longshots:

Alex Noren: Ran T4 here in 2022 but never lifted a trophy on TOUR.

Aaron Rai: There’s no need, in this format at least, to drift down here, but some of you gotta ketchup.

Mackenzie Hughes: Less trouble off the tee, the better. Big week last week as well.

Cameron Champ/Phillips: Gig ‘em.

Anybody with the last name Coody: Texas lads. Big jeans. Big genes.

The Genesis Invitational

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Tiger Woods hosts the third of eight Signature Events on the 2024 calendar.

Read more: The Genesis Invitational

The Genesis Invitational

The Riviera Country Club

Pacific Palisades, California

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Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks – Bet365.com Preview

Bet365: Top of the Board  

Sitting No. 1 in the OWGR, Scottie Scheffler (7/1) will look to add his name to the winners at The Genesis Invitational who have also won the Masters. Cashing T12 and T7 the last two seasons suggests he’s closing in on joining that club. I don’t need to remind you about his numbers in the Strokes-Gained department from last year or last week. The only question that follows the Texan is WHEN he will return to the winner’s circle.

Making his eighth start in Tinsel Town, Rory McIlroy (10/1) attempts to return to the form he used to start 2024 (WIN-T2). Pebble Beach wasn’t the soft landing he anticipated, and T66 wasn’t the payday he expected to take home. Rested after skipping WM Phoenix Open last week, the Ulsterman will look to add to his bounty of T29 or better in six of seven starts, including three top-10 paydays in Southern California.

A slow start from Norwegian superstar Viktor Hovland (14/1) has turned heads for the wrong reasons. Unable to breach the top 20 in Maui and not firing during the Pro-Am at Pebble Beach (T58), he was a late withdraw before the WM Phoenix Open last week. Cashing a pair of top-five paydays from three starts in Los Angeles, the Santa Monica Canyon might provide the tonic needed to swing his game into gear. The last two winners were in their 20s, but none were from a decade before. I’ll wait.

Xander Schauffele (16/1) leads the California contingent this week, even though he’s only painted the top 10 once from six starts. Running in the red to start the season, the San Diego native ran into the wind and weather of Pebble Beach (T54) and withdrew just before the WM Phoenix Open. Cashing four of his last six T15 or better, I’d lean into the top 20 (-170) as insurance.

Justin Thomas (18/1) embraced the tough conditions at Pebble Beach (T6) and was not deterred by the weather delays at TPC Scottsdale (T12). Since missing the cut at the 3M Open last summer, the two-time major champion has produced T12 or better paydays in seven consecutive starts on TOUR. The “new” swing changes have been replaced with the old, familiar action, and the results have followed.

Long Beach native Patrick Cantlay (18/1) pushed onto the podium last year with solo third. In the early days of 2024, he struggled to put all four rounds together, especially on Sunday. Sitting T11 after three rounds at Pebble Beach, he did not have a chance to wash away the difficult fourth-round mojo that had been following him to start the year. Cashing T17 or better in five of his last six here, hitching to a top 20 or top 10 might be the prudent play.

If there’s a track that will play Max Homa (18/1) into winning shape, I would point to this week. The 2021 winner, runner-up last year, has peeled off four straight paydays inside the top 10 and has not missed a weekend in five years. Cashing T13 in his defense at Torrey Pines, the Burbank native, born 20 miles up the street, didn’t fire at Pebble Beach (T66) and missed the cut last week in Scottsdale. A home game is just what the doctor ordered! Remember, four of his six wins on TOUR have come in his home state.

Ludvig Aberg (20/1) continues to produce results on premium courses against premium fields. The elements of Pebble Beach, the wind, weather, and Pro-Am, could not slow him down as he cashed solo second. Playing almost 7,800 yards, Torrey Pines kept him at T9. Experience is a must-have for most, but the Swedish star has been writing his own rules since last June.

Collin Morikawa (20/1) is another local who will be making noise this week. Finishing T2 in 2022 and cashing T6 in 2023, the La Canada-Flintridge native enjoys most ball-striking challenges. Sitting second behind Scheffler in SG: Approach the Green and fourth in SG: Tee to Green, he embraces tough layouts. A disappointing missed cut at Torrey Pines might distract investors. Not me.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Adam Scott (30/1): The 2020 champ is the all-time leading money winner at the event and has produced top 20 or better results worldwide over the last three months. Lovely convergence.

Cameron Young (40/1): Backed up a solo third from the Middle East with his second top-10 in three starts with T8 last week in Phoenix. Tying for second on debut in 2022, he posted 62 in Round 2. Last year, he returned for T20.

Will Zalatoris (50/1): Riding into Hollywood on a sponsor’s exemption, just like Scott, he will look forward to repaying the faith shown in him by his host. Running fourth here last year, he closed with 64, his best round in four appearances.

Emiliano Grillo (110/1): Playing for the sixth time in seven weeks, the Argentine has produced T22 or better in his last four starts. The winner at Colonial, the other Hogan’s Alley, last spring can work it tee to green.

Tom Hoge (125/1): Making his seventh consecutive start to begin 2024, I’ll back the free roll. Hitting 28 of 36 GIR on the weekend in Phoenix, he cashed T17 for the second time in three starts on TOUR. The other payday was T6 at Pebble Beach.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseThe Riviera Country Club
Yards (per official scorecard):7,322
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:Poa annua; 7,500 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:12 feet and up.
Rough:Kikuyu grass at two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play58/0/0
Architect(s):George C. Thomas (1926).
Defending Champion (event):Jon Rahm -17
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Adam Scott (2020, 2005).
Course Record:61; Ted Tryba (1999).
72 Hole Tournament Record264; Lanny Wadkins (1985).
Fact of the Week:Before the last two editions, all of the winners from 2008 through 2021 were 30 or older.
Fact of the Week II:Adam Scott was the last player to win on debut. His 36-hole victory in 2005 was unofficial.

One of the classic American golf courses, The Riviera Country Club, designed by George C. Thomas, opened for business in 1927.

Hosting the former Los Angeles Open for the 62nd time, the Par-71 layout has stretched 7,322 yards since the 2016 edition.

The West Coast swing ends with another week on Poa annua greens. Running at 12.5 feet on the Stimpmeter, the large putting surfaces, averaging 7,500 square feet, rank in the top five largest on TOUR.

There’s no water on the course that runs through the Santa Monica Canyon. Kikuyu grass cut at two inches will provide nest-y, uneven lies off the fairways and around the greens. The bunkers, 58 of them, are penal. The Riviera Country Club ranks as one of the toughest tracks on the calendar when it comes to getting up and down out of the sand or, getting it close.

Taming Riviera requires a full array of shots, including a cooperative flat stick. Grinding out pars on the Par-4 holes, attacking the scorable Par-5 chances, and surviving the all-encompassing Par-3 holes will produce a worthy champion.

“Hogan’s Alley” has hosted the U.S. Open, won by Ben Hogan in 1948, plus two PGA Championships. The historical record includes a U.S. Senior Open and the U.S. Amateur, plus the 2026 U.S. Women’s Open and 2028 Summer Olympics yet to come.

Notes:

  • Field of 70.
  • The cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead plays the weekend.
  • The OWGR is represented by 41 of the top 50.
  • $20 million – $4 million – 700 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen
Butterfield BermudaCamilo Villegas
The RSM ClassicLudvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis Invitational 

Recent Winners – The Genesis Invitational

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2023Jon Rahm (-17)Held off 2021 winner Max Homa by two shots.
2022Joaquin Niemann     (-19)Became just the fourth wire-to-wire winner in event history.
2021Max Homa (-12)Defeated Tony Finau in a playoff.
2020Adam Scott (-11)Held off Matt Kuchar and two others by two shots.
2019J.B. Holmes (-14)Justin Thomas was 18-under with 17 holes to go. He finished 13-under and in second place.
2018Bubba Watson (-12)Won for the third time holding off Finau by two shots.

Angles

Since 2007, every winner was 30 years or older until the 2022 and 2023 editions, when the winners were 23 and 28.

Masters champions have won this event 11 times since the turn of the century.

The last eight winners needed four or more starts before raising the trophy.

The last player to win on debut was Adam Scott in 2005. The victory was unofficial as the event, canceled due to weather, was only 36 holes.

The trio of Par-5 holes are some of the friendliest on TOUR.

The Par-4 holes are not.

Gaining strokes off the tee and into the greens will go a long way to determining the winner.

Bunkers this week are penal. Getting it close is rare. Getting it up and down is a struggle.

The fifth consecutive week on Poa annua greens will require concentration from outside the leather again. Look for the speed on the green to be the quickest yet on TOUR this season.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee on Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

EventSelectionEarnings
The SentryCollin Morikawa690,500
Sony Open in HawaiiCorey Conners18,592
The American ExpressAdam Hadwin310,800
Farmers Insurance OpenJason Day0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJordan Spieth70,125
WM Phoenix OpenMatt Fitzpatrick156,200
   
Total Winnings: 1,246,217

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – WM Phoenix Open

Nick Taylor or Charley Hoffman was going to be a triple-digit long-shot winner.

Again.

Whatever.

MY CHOICE: Matt Fitzpatrick – T15 but 10 shots off the lead.

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: If I am going to use him once and only once, thems the rules, I’m going down in an event with BIG BUCKS on the table. Wonderful attempt for a three-peat. T3 is great, except when you put it next to what T3 this week pays.

Justin Thomas: Current heat mixes nicely with course form. At this point, I can’t talk myself out of him at Valhalla. You do you. T12 after a quiet Saturday round of 70.

Hideki Matsuyama: Legit course horse. T22 adds another top-25 payday to his career total here.

Max Homa: No, thanks. Next week. MC

Wyndham Clark: Following up a round of 60 in victory seems a bit of a stretch.  Tough ask. T41.

Byeong Hun An: The putter isn’t the answer, but he won’t miss many Fairways and GIR. Crowd got under his skin. T66.

Longshots

Keith Mitchell – T17

Corey Conners – T28

Vincent Norrman – MC

Victor Perez – MC

This Week – The Genesis Invitational

West Coast players have feasted here over the years. Only Joaquin Niemann, who is ineligible this week, sticks out like a sore thumb from the list of recent winners. All he did was set the 36-hole and 54-hole scoring record in perfect conditions.

The third of eight Signature Events requires a show of nerves. Either you’re picking an ultra-premium player or you’re hoping to continue to stretch of winners outside 60-1.

With only 40-odd events to choose from, there is absolutely no need to go fishing this week. Save that for next week in Mexico when the field will lighten significantly.

MY CHOICE: Max Homa

It’s his major championship. It’s in his backyard. He’s won it and finished second in the last three editions. The streak of top-10 paydays is four.

No more overthinking.

Some would suggest I don’t think at all!

Who’s arguing?!?!?

With four of his six wins in his home state of California, I expect a bounce back after missing the cut last week. He’s fresh and ready to go.

Happy Valentine’s Day, you filthy animals.

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: I will not talk you out of him this week. This is not a putting contest and that will help him between the ears from the word go.

Collin Morikawa: I’d probably run him out before Scheffler. I like the grass match.

Adam Scott: I don’t think I need to dip to 50-1 this week. Might pop in a field with less lumber down the road.

Rory McIlroy: I’m good. See him in Florida or when the weather gets warmer.

Justin Thomas: T12 or better in every event over the last four months. I’m still holding out for Valhalla.

Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele: If you’re not sold on Cantlay’s form, save him for Memorial. Schauffele is an auto-play at any major, especially a U.S. Open. If your game uses The TOUR Championship, that works as well.

Tiger Woods: Come on. Just no. He’s +320 to hit the top 20. Go there. Win there. Maybe.

Longshots

Sahith Theegala

Cameron Young

Will Zalatoris

Adam Schenk

Emiliano Grillo

Welcome Back! The Sentry 2024

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Read more: Welcome Back! The Sentry 2024

The Sentry

The Plantation Course at Kapalua

Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii

Weekly Readers:

Odds Outlook – click here

Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – click here

Expert Picks – click here

Golfbet articles from the entire crew – click here

Opening Grid – click here

Welcome to 2024 and the new season.

For those of you who are just arriving for the first time, here’s what’s going on:

I write all of the stuff above. I’m not going to necessarily repeat everything in this column. Life is a do-it-yourself job so click and read.

Information changes from Sunday to Wednesday morning. If there is anything new/exciting/pertinent, I’ll try to add it here.

This column is me. My thoughts, my humor, my fun, my opinions. I’m not here for grammar lessons, suggestions, or to charge you any hard-earned money for reading.

So shut up, keep up, and enjoy it.

I know there are only a few of you so thanks for reading.

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Scottie Scheffler (+500): The last three winners here have led the field in SG: Putting. Nobody hits it better but can he it THAT WELL against a field of this class and get away with a cold-putting week? No, says I. Enjoy the free money on the top 10 bets, though.

Viktor Hovland (+800): Maybe the fourth time will be the charm? Form has never been a concern. The last two years he’s arrived after winning the Hero World Challenge in December against an elite field. His best finish is T18. What’s the hang-up? Chipping and putting on Bermuda. Well, he’s appeared to have fixed those issues. I’ll let you wade in at 8-1 to see him put it all together this week.

Collin Morikawa (+1100): Odds have already dropped from 12s to 11s since Monday morning. Not hard to figure out why. He was 35-under in his previous four rounds from 2022 thru Round 3 of 2023. His final round 72 last year saw his six-shot lead evaporate. Fading to T2 he picked up his fourth consecutive T7 or better from four starts.  Family on the island. A winner at ZOZO in October. Two-time major champion. Only concern, as usual, could be the flat stick. I’ll start writing win tickets and his name is first on the list.

Ludvig Aberg (+1400): Looking to go back-to-back on TOUR in his 15th start anywhere as a pro. Wow. Fantastic player will be attacking history from that angle plus the Chopra Angle (keep reading). Too much for me to swallow at that price. Terribly curious to see how he follows up closing 64-61-61 from his win at The RSM though.

Xander Schauffele (+1400): One of the three former champs in the field, his last two years here have been disappointing. After his win, followed by P2 and T5, he cashed 12th and was a WD (back/neck) last year after opening with 70. Recent winners at Kapalua have produced results in the fall and ridden that momentum to Maui. He’s played once since the Ryde Cup, T38 at ZOZO, and did not hit the Hero. Hasn’t won since July 2022.

Patrick Cantlay (+1400): In the even years, he plays great, solo fourth in 2020 and 2022. In the odd years, he hasn’t cracked the top 12. Is it the Ryder Cup? He hasn’t played since Rome, nor did he play in the weeks leading up after The TOUR Championship. He did get married! Hooking on to a guy who hasn’t played his own ball since early September isn’t for the faint of heart.

Max Homa (+1400): This Californian checks the boxes for me as my No. 2 this week. After winning in South Africa in November, he knocked the rust off in The Bahamas at the Hero World Challenge. I can’t point to a recent full-field event where he wasn’t in the top 25. He finished T3 here last year and will be making his fourth start. Super on the greens as well, I’d expect a big week from him again.

Jordan Spieth (+1800): Nobody loves Horses for Courses more than I do and the Texan qualifies. The 2016 champ hit the podium in his first three, and the top 10 in his first four, but has been quiet since. Tied with Schauffele and Matsuyama more the most starts in the field (7 this week), he knows his way around. With the expanded family, a new baby arrived in September, and a jumpy putter, this number feels like a stretch. He’ll hope for tougher, breezy conditions to allow his creativity and short game to flourish.

Tom Kim (+2200): Debuting last year, he racked up T5 and wondered what all the fuss was about. The birdie machine would be higher on my list if the conditions were benign. I haven’t seen enough of him in the breeze to run him to the front, especially in a field of this strength. Form won’t be a concern as a busy fall worldwide included defending his title in the weather-less Las Vegas desert.  

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseThe Plantation Course at Kapalua
Yards (per official scorecard):7,596
Par:73 (36-37)
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; 8,722 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:11 feet.
Rough:Celebration Bermuda at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play93/0/0.
Architect(s):Coore and Crenshaw (1999).
Defending Champion (event):Jon Rahm (-27; not entered; no longer holds TOUR status).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record (last):61; set three times in 2022 (Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Matt Jones, none entered this week).
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):258 (-34); Cam Smith 2022 (no longer a member on TOUR).
Fact of the Week:72 holes, no cut.
Fact of the Week II:There are 18 players making their debut this week. The only player to win on the first attempt at Kapalua was Daniel Chopra in 2008.

Notes:

  • Field of 59.
  • Winners in the calendar year 2023 or qualifiers for the BMW Championship are eligible.
  • The OWGR is represented by 21 of the top 25.
  • First of eight SIGNATURE EVENTS of 2024.
  • $20 million – $3.6 million – 700 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Italics – not entered

EventWinner
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen
Butterfield BermudaCamilo Villegas
The RSM ClassicLudvig Aberg

Recent Winners – The Sentry

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2023Jon Rahm (-25)Won by two, no longer a member on TOUR.
2022Cam Smith (-34)Set the tournament scoring record, no longer a member on TOUR.
2021Harris English (-25)Won in a playoff on his second visit.
2020Justin Thomas (-14)Won a three-man playoff over Schauffele and Reed in breezy conditions.
2019Xander Schauffele     (-23)Closed with 62, tying the course record, to win on his second try.
2018Dustin Johnson (-24)Tied the Plantation course margin of victory, winning by eight shots.

Angles

The Plantation Course tips at 7,596 yards, the third longest course used in 2023, and plays to Par-73.

The Plantation Course has ranked as the easiest course on TOUR the last three seasons, playing more than three shots under par per round annually. Weather is the only deterrent to scoring.

The resort course features generous fairways and the largest greens complexes on TOUR.

Elevation changes and uneven lies will challenge players on second shots.

TifEagle Bermuda greens running at 11 feet will allow players to be aggressive on the short grass.

The last eight winners have produced seven champions who finished first or second in SG: Putting.

The last eight winners have ranked in the top eight in SG: Off the tee.

The last 10 winners of this event have been household names. The best players have no problem going low.

Stretching

Players for the top 10 and top 20 action

Australian Cam Davis (66/1) will try to continue the proud Australian tradition at this event. The last wire-to-wire winner and champion to defend was Geoff Ogilvy (2009-2010). Stuart Appleby rattled off three straight wins from 2004-2006. Cameron Smith set the tournament scoring record in 2022. Making his second start, he quietly picked off a T10 on debut in 2022 with four rounds in the 60s for 23-under.

The top 10 finishers of 2023 included debutants Tom Hoge (150/1) at T3, Tom Kim (22/1) at T5, and Matt Fitzpatrick (28/1) at T7. This year, 18 players are making their maiden voyages at the Plantation Course. While Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, and U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark will get most of the looks, Floridian Eric Cole (66/1) makes for a lovely outsider. The 34-year-old rookie ran T3 to Aberg at The RSM Classic to wrap up a fruitful debut season on TOUR. He’s the best putter in the field, loves Bermudagrass, and won’t be bothered by the big names or big ballpark.

Akshay Bhatia (110/1) thrives in coastal settings and when conditions get breezy.

Mackenzie Hughes (150/1) quietly closed 2023 with a runner-up finish to Aberg at The RSM Classic two weeks after cashing T7 at El Cardonal in Mexico. The Canadian opened with 66 and closed with 65 here last year for T21, his best result from three visits.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee on Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

With EIGHT Signature Events spread out throughout the season, player management becomes a major issue. These events do NOT include the four majors or THE PLAYERS Championship. These events do NOT include the FedExCup Playoffs.

My theory for this game is quite simple: Use the biggest and best for the events with the biggest and best prize pools. Also, if your second guy wins this week, what’s to say he won’t win again in 2024??? Relax, it’s week 1.

This is a bonus week as there is NO CUT. You will cash. Or crash and burn.

MY CHOICE: Collin Morikawa

Others to consider/fade

Max Homa – Too many events in SoCal for me to use this week. He will defend at Torrey Pines and Riviera is his personal open. I won’t talk YOU out of him, though.

Xander Schauffele – This should interest the course historians at Kapalua but the rust bothers ME. You gotta do you. I’ll save him for the U.S. Open or East Lake (if your game uses that event).

Patrick Cantlay – Another quirk of mine is playing guys where they have won before. Memorial is his jam.

Jordan Spieth – New folks, it’s either Augusta or Colonial for me. Maybe Pebble.

Remember, not playing a guy you will still have 14 more chances to use them in BIG EVENTS this season. Of the top 25 OWGR, 21 are in this week. It should be difficult. It will be difficult all season.

Longshots

Sungjae Im – The best of three starts was his debut and he has gone in the wrong direction since. That direction included another top 10 plus solo 12th. Coming off his first season in five without a podium finish doesn’t inspire but he knows his way around tee to green.

Sahith Theegala – Free roll. Winner at Fortinet in September. ELITE putter who finished 33rd of 38 last year on these greens. He won’t do that again, promise!

Valspar Championship Preview 2023

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After fun with Pete Dye at TPC Sawgrass the fun will continue at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida.

Best of luck to Ryan Stewart and his crew for a great week!

Read more: Valspar Championship Preview 2023

Valspar Championship

The Copperhead Course

Innisbrook Resort

Palm Harbor, Florida

Weekly Readers:

Horses for Courses – click here

Betting Stat Pack – click here

Expert Picks – click here

Odds Outlook – click here

Bolton’s Bonanza

I’d tell you to follow him on Twitter but if you’re here you probably ain’t on Twitter! @RobBoltonGolf just in case!

2023 Qualifiers for PLAYERS, majors

NOW PLAYING:

The week after the deepest event in golf and the biggest prize pool suggests a hit and giggle to “come down” after the stress of TPC Sawgrass and Pete Dye.

Nope.

Welcome to the Copperhead Course and “The Snake Pit”! Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor will complete the Florida Swing and present another tough challenge.

Larry Packard’s design cut through the oaks and hills north of Tampa is annually one of the toughest on TOUR. If that phrase sounds familiar in this column, well it’s accurate. PGA National, Bay Hill and Innisbrook WHEN MOTHER NATURE IS AROUND, are three of the toughest tracts on TOUR.

There are always exceptions to rules and the last two years at Copperhead paints that picture. The 2021 edition, played in April after being cancelled for 2020, saw PERFECT conditions and a lack of wind. The 2022 edition was even better and spit out the lowest scoring total in history, almost a full stroke under par.

These are exceptions, not rules.

Read on.

Good luck!

Host CourseThe Copperhead Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,340.
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; over seeded with Poa Trivialis; 5,822 square feet.
Stimpmeter:12 feet.
Rough:Rye grass (over seeded) at 3.75 inches. Collars around the greens have been reduced to less than two feet as well.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In Play74/8/9
Architect(s):Larry Packard (1971). Renovation 2016 as well to add TifEagle greens, new drainage and bunkers.
Purse:$8.1 million; $1.458 winner plus 500 FedExCup points.
Defending Champion:Sam Burns (-17).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Sam Burns (2022, 2021).
72 Hole Tournament Record:263; Sam Burns (2022, 2021). 263; Davis Riley (2022).
Course Record (last):61; Matthew NeSmith (Round 2, 2022).
Oldest Winner:Mark Calcavecchia, 45.
Youngest Winner:Jordan Spieth, 21.
Fact of the Week:The last two winners have won the last four events.
Fact of the Week II:Last winner on debut was Gary Woodland in 2011.

Notes:

  • Field of 144
  • Cut to Top 65 and ties after two rounds.
  • “The Snake Pit” is comprised of Nos. 16, 17 and 18.
  • Playoff will be 18-18-16-17-18, if necessary.

Season Winners

2022-2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Fortinet ChampionshipMax Homa
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipMackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPKeegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREERory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda ChampionshipSeamus Power
Mayakoba ChampionshipRussell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston OpenTony Finau
The RSM ClassicAdam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)

Recent Event Winners

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2022Sam Burns (-17) *Defeated Davis Riley in a playoff to defend his title.
2021Sam Burns (-17)Outlasted Keegan Bradley by three shots for his first TOUR victory.
2020No EventCovid-19
2019Paul Casey (-9)Defended his 2018 title as he won by two.
2018Paul Casey (-10)Held off Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed by a shot.
2017Adam Hadwin (-14)Site of his first and only TOUR victory.
2016Charl Schwartzel (-7)Knocked out Bill Haas in a playoff.

This Week – Valspar Championship

Wind from four different directions.

Rough at almost four inches in places.

Tighter driving conditions than TPC Sawgrass.

Greenside rough.

Nothing firm and fast as the fairways are over seeded again.

No tricks this week.

Sounds like Valspar wants to return to its roots as a tough and fair event after the last two seasons.

OAD

Last Week at THE PLAYERS Championship

MY CHOICE: Jason Day T19

Nice payday for a top 20 but I picked the wrong time to jump on the Aussie as his streak of four top 10s in a row died.

Oh, and saving Scottie Scheffler for the PGA is looking dafter and dafter by the day.

Dafter Duck.

But he’s good enough to win again and again and again so I’m not panicking.

Yet.

2023 so far:

Already Burned
Sungjae Im – Maui
Tom Kim – Sony
Tom Hoge – AMEX
Viktor Hovland – Pebble
Xander Schauffele – WMPO
Max Homa – Riviera
Shane Lowry – Honda
Tyrrell Hatton – API
Akshay Bhatia – PRO
Jason Day – PLAYERS

This Week – Valspar Championship

MY CHOICE: Justin Rose

Hit it way too well last week and has plenty of reps here. I’m not crazy using OLD GUYS but I have plans for Spieth, Thomas and Fitzy down the road. It was tough to lay down my dude Suh but so be it. I’ll lean on the Englishman in less-than-ideal conditions like Pebble Beach.

Others to consider:

Justin Suh, Sam Burns, Adam Hadwin, Brandon Wu

This Week – Valspar Championship

Chalk (via BetMGM)

Justin Thomas (+1000): The top is gonna pop off at some point. Hard to fathom he’s only posted one top 10 in 2023 and it hasn’t happened in his last three events.

Jordan Spieth (+1200): Ok, he’s back for the first time since MC in 2018. The 2015 champ was in the conversation at Bay Hill and posted 66 in Round 3 last week.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600): Here’s an angle: the Englishman’s MC last week gave him 36 less holes of frustration so he should be ready for this week in Tampa. T6 Fairways, T1 GIR and only three bogeys last year here. Ding.

Sam Burns (+1600): Zero evidence the last three weeks that three in a row is on the cards. Didn’t register in the top 25 of Fairways or Top 40 GIR last week. Hard to argue that he likes it here. I’ll remind you the last two years have been the two easiest events in history. Too much jetwash for me. Congrats on your turkey, Sam!

Adam Hadwin (+2200): Cut making Canadian, like most above him in this field, had his best result of 2023 at WMPO (T10). Backed up his MC at Bay Hill with T13 last week as he hit it great. How do you say “horse for course” in Canadian, Paul?

Justin Rose (+2200): Aging like fine wine, the Pebble champ pocketed another top 10 last week. SMOKED it tee to green last week. Lean.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2500): Best finish is T20 in 2023 at Riviera. Tough, US Open style set up should get his attention.

Top 10/Top 20/Top 40

Denny McCarthy (+3300): Never MC in three here including T9 in 2019 when the conditions weren’t perfect.

Justin Suh (+3300): Duh.

Wyndham Clark (+3500): Plenty of ammo and is hot, 10 straight on TOUR.

Ben Griffin (+5000): Can’t hit it any worse than he did last week. Won’t forget how to putt Bermuda tho.

Brandon Wu (+5000): Can’t ignore T19 last week or T14 at Honda.

Victor Perez (+5500): Always interested to see how Euros pop over and adjust immediately. He’s in the field next week for Match Play.

Ben An (+6600): New dad is playing great. Six straight.

Ludvig Aberg (+8000): Seems to enjoy a bit of tough course.

Ryan Gerard (+8000): Trying to join Akshay on the STM train. Pressure? We’ll see.

Long Shots

Use ’em wherever you see fit! All players listed are +10000 or worse and are for a reason or two!

Akshay Bhatia (+10000): There he is! Super tee to green and doesn’t mind a bit of weather in the forecast.

Eric Cole (+10000): Ride the wave.

Trey Mullinax (+10000): Has the tools tee to green.

Michael Kim (+12500): 5TH-MC-T11 last three on TOUR

Zach Johnson (+12500): Should thrive and has before here.

Harry Hall (+15000): 5 of 6 and three straight.

Luke Donald (+20000): Wouldn’t be surprised to see another top 20.

Tano Goya (+20000): 5 straight and the best of the bunch was T11 PRO last time out.

Cameron Percy (+30000): T12 at Honda on a tough layout.

Last Week – THE PLAYERS Championship

Chalk (via BetMGM)

Rory McIlroy (+900): Did everything but win last week at event/venue he loves. Perfect prep for this week where he should be and is the favorite. MC. Can’t make it up. Too much off the course heavy lifting? Pete Dye? All the above? Probably.

Jon Rahm (+1000): Fantastic year had a hiccup last week as he stuck four balls in the water. His focus sharpened with 72 on Sunday. I’m expecting nothing but a bounce back this week on a course where Ball-Striking is king. A stomach bug forced a WD. What a killer in any format. Imagine saving him for this and that happens. You can’t predict baseball, Suzyn!

Scottie Scheffler (+1000): Third trip to TPC Sawgrass will come without the fanfare this year as he hasn’t won his last two starts. The course is the star this week and that won’t bother Scheffler and will let him go about his business. And go about his business he did. WINNER WINNER. Ran away to win by five and collect the biggest cash prize yet, $4.5 million. That will buy grandma a nice mixer for her to make his favorite desserts!

Patrick Cantlay (+1600): Big paydays at Riviera and Bay Hill push him up here. Best finishes here are T22 and T23 on his first two visits. MC in his last three. CHALLENGE ACCEPTED. T19 as he stalled out with 72 on Sunday. 61st in Putting didn’t help. Just when I think I have him figured out…

Justin Thomas (+1800): One of the best iron players and Bermuda players around. No problem winning here or anywhere else. Comfortable pairing with Spieth and Homa won’t hurt. T60 as the mysterious malaise of 2023 continues.

Max Homa (+1800): Any place. Any time. Any grass. Free as a bird. Elite. Double on 17 on Sunday knocked him out of the big money but T6 is nothing to sneeze at on this track. Love him.

Top 10/Top 20/Top 40

Jason Day – I’ll wait to be bucked off before I get back on at Augusta. 2016 champ. T19 as he only made FIVE BOGEYS for the week. Problem was he also squared three doubles.

Jordan Spieth – I like the number (+3300) and the way he hit for the most of last week. His quote was succinct: I got “Sawgrassed”. Only got up and down from the beach 4 of 11 times. Odd. T19.

Keegan Bradley – Putting matters but so does flushing it. So does making the cut. Sigh. He’s WD for this week as well and I’ll keep an eye on that moving forward. MC.

Shane Lowry – Last two are his best two so I’m on board. Plays well in Florida where he plays well in Florida. Played the final 54 holes in 9-under. Problem is they count all 72 and 77 to open was too much to overcome. New caddy as well. T35.

Keith Mitchell – If I’m on him, run. Run away that is. Tried to warn you. T35 as he missed 31 GIR. His hot putter (T3) was the upside if there is one.

Corey Conners – Yep yep yep. MC. Nope. Nope. Nope.

Si Woo Kim – Pete Dye? Bermuda? Ding. T27 continues a very solid run on each coast on Dye designs.

Sahith Theegala – Can’t stop watching. First timer learned the lesson first hand. 12 bogeys and SIX doubles as he missed THIRTY-FIVE GIR. Almost half! The experience will come in handy as he’ll be in this event annually in the future.

Long Shots

Use ’em wherever you see fit! All players listed are +10000 or worse and are for a reason or two!

Brian Harman +10000 – T44.

Davis Riley +15000 – 71-77 MC.

Denny McCarthy +15000 – T13 with all four rounds par or better.

Justin Suh +15000 – Brilliant debut for T6 thanks to a hot putter.

Ryan Fox +15000 – T27 as his hot worldwide play continues.

Adam Svensson +20000 – Birdies on three of his last six vaulted him into the top 15 at T13.

Taylor Moore +20000 – Anybody else notice his 65 on Saturday? T35.

Ben Griffin +22500 – Made 49 pars on debut. Lost 5 shots to par on No. 18 with a double and triple to knock him out of the top 20. T35.

Byeong Hun An +30000 – Oh, hey, #NappyFactor. T35.

Doug Ghim +30000 – The magic of his first two visits disappeared as he opened with 80.

Kevin Kisner +35000 – Dead last paid $48,750.

Dylan Frittelli +40000 – 79 in round 2.