Valero Texas Open Preview

April 3, 2024April 6, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

The stars at night

Are big and bright

Deep in the heart of Texas

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio

Oaks Course

San Antonio, Texas

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Quick Links:

Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks

Bet365: Top of the Board

Rory McIlroy (10/1): The only victory that matters is the first one at Augusta National next week. The OWGR No. 2 has found the winner’s circle multiple times before major championships, so he’s not an automatic fade this week. Cashing T19 at THE PLAYERS for his best finish in the States in five events suggests investing elsewhere.

Ludvig Aberg (12/1): Too young to have a “plan” knocking over another field before his first major championship would not surprise anyone reading this column. With four years of college experience in the wind of Lubbock, Texas, he will not be bothered by any of Mother Nature’s challenges. Heading to the Masters next week, his only concern this week is winning. Sign me up.

Hideki Matsuyama (20/1): The 2021 Masters champion has produced the goods in his last three starts (T16-T12-WIN). The goal this week is getting dialed in tee-to-green, and everything else is gravy. If he is in contention on Sunday, he’s not going to back down. If he’s not in contention on Sunday, do not be surprised if he saves on fuel for next week.

Jordan Spieth (22/1): Picking up his trophy boots after the 2021 edition before heading to his favorite event, the Dallas native needs a pick-me-up before returning to Augusta in 2024. A pair of early weekend exits and a DQ for an incorrect scorecard muted his strong start after Kapalua (3rd) and TPC Scottsdale (T6). A big weekend at the Oaks Course wouldn’t surprise me. Neither would a quiet one. Sigh.

Max Homa (25/1): The more demanding the track, the more focus the Californian brings. Wins at Qual Hollow, Torrey Pines, and Riviera accentuate that theory. Strangely, his success at Augusta National is almost non-existent. Picking up this event tells me he needs to find some confidence before next week. Making his first visit to the Oaks Course since 2019 suggests he has left it late.

Corey Conners (25/1): Not many enjoy a horse for a course more than I do. Two wins, 16 rounds in the red, and nothing worse than T35 over five starts will not push me away.

Matt Fitzpatrick (28/1): Teeing it up for the first time in Hill Country, the Englishman is riding high off solo fifth in the last outing at TPC Sawgrass. Gaining strokes tee-to-green isn’t an issue; neither is chipping and putting. Tough laydown this week.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Billy Horschel (33/1): I will pair his current form with his experience at the Oaks Course. A winner up the road in Austin at the WGC-Match Play in 2021, he should be excited to return to a happy hunting ground. The Florida native has cashed T11 or better in five of his last eight visits.

Harris English (35/1): Pure heat. Not missing a cut in 2024, he has cashed out T21 or better in his last four starts.

Byeong Hun An (40/1): With three top-10 paydays in his first seven starts in 2024, I’m hoping a missed cut at THE PLAYERS kicks a few off the scent. He’s comfortable where he’s comfortable. Producing two top-seven paydays in his last three visits suggest he’s comfortable outside San Antonio.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (50/1): Running as my second choice at Valspar, he produced T9 and his best result of the season. I can’t leave him out at an event that has crowned plenty of first-time winners. All aboard!

Akshay Bhatia (60/1): Collecting T17 at Valspar is his worst paycheck from five weekends (nine starts) in the new season. Sitting one shot off the lead at the halfway point at Memorial Park last Sunday, he knows the only way to Augusta is winning THIS week.

Lee Hodges (90/1): Posted 12-under over his last 54 holes here last year. Not overthinking this the week before a major!

Charley Hoffman (125/1): The horse for the course. The 2016 winner has 10 paydays of T22 or better, including three seconds/T2.

Matti Schmid (125/1): Always looking to add a hot runner to the stable, the German, no doubt inspired by Jaeger’s win last week, has run his streak to T26 or better in the last four weeks. I should add him above for a Top 20 just in case!

Matt Kuchar (140/1): Never missing the weekend in 11 starts, he returns after a four-year run of T3-T2-T12-T7. While his current form hasn’t produced a top-30 payday in 2024, maybe the Fountain of Youth is by way of the Alamo.

Aaron Baddeley (175/1): The Australian has cashed T30 or better in eight of nine. Never missing the cut, he makes his first visit since T18 2022.

Sam Stevens (250/1): Missed a playoff by a shot last year. Wind doesn’t bother him. Top 40 to start.

Peter Kuest (400/1): Monday qualifier with absolutely nothing to lose, he registered last year in Par-5 scoring and Putting: Birdie or Better Percentage over 15 events. Everyone needs a long shot to find the weekend.

Mike Glasscott: Valero Texas Open tips

OUTRIGHT – Christiaan Bezuidenhout (50/1)

TOP 10 – Ludvig Aberg (8/5), Billy Horschel (15/4)

TOP 20 – Corey Conners (29/20), Charley Hoffman (17/4)

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	TPC San Antonio – Oaks Course
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,438.
Par:	72 (36-36).
Greens:	Poa Trivialis; 6,400 square feet.
Stimpmeter:	11 feet.
Rough:	Overseeded Rye and Fescue at 2.25 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	64/3/3
Architect(s):	Greg Norman (2010).
Defending Champion (event):	Corey Conners (-15).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Corey Conners (2023, 2019).
Course Record (latest):	62; Trey Mullinax (2018, Round 3).
72 Hole Tournament Record	268; Corey Conners (2019).
Fact of the Week:	There has never been a playoff since the Oaks Course became the host (2010).
Fact of the Week II:	The winner this week, if not already qualified, will take the final place in the field at the Masters.

TPC San Antonio – Oaks Course

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, designed in 2010 by Greg Norman, plays as a stock Par-72 and can reach 7,438 yards.

The ball-striking examination includes surviving missed fairways and greens. The recipe for success includes avoiding the big misses that come with big penalties. The rough this week will be only 2 ¼ inches, but the bunker count is 64, and there are water penalty areas on three holes. The breezes that blow in this part of the world will require a commitment to tee shots and irons.

Perched greens, 6,400 square feet on average, require quality shots for scoring opportunities. Poorly struck shots will drift into heavy bunkering or down closely mown areas. Running at 11 feet on the Stimpmeter, the pros will not have to worry about getting putts to the hole or the wind blowing their approaches off the putting surfaces.

Each nine has a pair of Par-5 holes. Together, the quartet annually ranks inside the top 12 most difficult on TOUR. If the wind cooperates, the first two, measuring over 600 yards, should play downwind. The remaining two on the inward nine, including the 591-yard finish hole with water, should provide drama coming home.

Paying off greens in regulation with birdie putts, scoring on the Par-5 holes, and getting up and down are the challenges presented in the Texas Hill Country.

In 13 previous editions, the Oaks Course ranked in the bottom half one time (2019). The 2022 edition was the only other event to play four rounds UNDER par.

The course record (62) was set in 2018 by Trey Mullinax (Round 3).

Reigning and two-time champion Corey Conners produced the tournament scoring record in a benign 2019 edition on 20-under par 268.

Valero Texas Open

The Texas two-step of late March/early April is the first of two trips to the Lone Star state and the final tune-up for 30 players heading to the first major of the season next week.

Every year since 1923, San Antonio has hosted a professional event, and it is the longest-serving city hosting an event on the PGA TOUR.

Highlighted by World No. 2 Rory McIlroy, the field of 156 players includes 21 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Sitting at No. 47 in the OWGR is Canadian Corey Conners, the only multiple winner from 13 previous events at the Oaks Course. The tournament record holder from 2019 returned last season and posted 15-under to win by a shot.

Joining the Canadian as past champions in the field this week are J.J. Spaun (2022), Jordan Spieth (2021), Andrew Landry (2018), Kevin Chappell (2017), Charley Hoffman (2016), local Jimmy Walker (2015), Martin Laird (2013), and inaugural winner Adam Scott (2010).

Spieth, Landry, and Walker are the only native Texans to win at the Oaks Course.

The last rookie to win this event was in 2006 at another course.

The last player to win on debut was the 2012 champion, Ben Crane.

In 13 events, six first-time PGA TOUR winners have been crowned, including four of the last six (bold above), including Conners in 2019.

The field will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

On the line is a purse of $9.1 million, with the winner taking home $1.658 million and collecting 500 FedExCup points.

Most importantly, if the winner is not qualified, he will take the final spot in the field at the 88th Masters next week in the first major championship of 2024.

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix Open	Nick Taylor
The Genesis Invitational	Hideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Jake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant Classic	Austin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Scottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Peter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston Open	Stephan Jaeger (first time)

Recent Winners – Valero Texas Open

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Corey Conners (-15)	Held off Sam Stevens by a shot to become the first multiple winner at the Oaks Course.
2022	J.J. Spaun (-13)	Winning by two shots over Matt Kuchar, he picked up his first win on TOUR.
2021	Jordan Spieth (-18)	Defeated “The Mayor” Charley Hoffman by two shots.
2020	No event
2019	Corey Conners (-20)	Defeated “The Mayor” Charley Hoffman by two shots.
2018	Andrew Landry (-17)	Winning by two shots, picked up his first victory on TOUR.
2017	Kevin Chappell (-12)	Held off Brooks Koepka by a shot.
2016	Charley Hoffman (-12)	Finally paid off his hot run in San Antonio.
2015	Jimmy Walker (-11)	Boerne, Texas, local resident became the first of three Texans to win (Landry and Spieth) at the Oaks Course.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125
WM Phoenix Open	Matt Fitzpatrick	156,200
The Genesis Invitational	Max Homa	329,000
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau	145,125
Cognizant Classic	Russell Henley	32,850
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Scottie Scheffler	4,000,000
THE PLAYERS Championship	Will Zalatoris	0
Valspar Championship	Sam Burns	0
Texas Children’s Houston Open	Wyndham Clark	54,418

Total Winnings:		5,807,610

His game has more fun stuff to it. Reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – Texas Children’s Houston Open

MY CHOICE: Wyndham Clark – T31

Beware the injured golfer is only a phrase people use when they don’t take the injured golfer and he plays well.

After cashing behind Scheffler in the last two events, the U.S. Open champion stayed true to form as he cashed behind Scheffler again, but this time 29 extra places.

It would have been so easy just to take reigning champion Tony Finau, but there’s nothing easy about this game to me.

Whatever.

Other to Consider:

Sahith Theegala: I had trouble getting off of him this week and I might change it up before the bell sounds. Top-10 paydays from his last two events, a full bag, and he’s impossible not to like. T28 with four rounds of 70 or better. I don’t think throwing out the first pitch for opening day helped with the golf. At all. Especially for a guy who has never thrown a baseball, his words, not mine.

Tony Finau: I’ll wait until later in the summer when he finds some more. T2 sounds MUCH MUCH MUCH worse than what it “really” was. He shared second with, checks notes, FIVE OTHER DUDES. Instead of a nice payday, essentially he took home really good fourth-placed money. Win some, lose some, and meh some.

Jason Day: Proven record in Texas comes with a perfect 3-3 here. Burned me already this season on a course he loves at Torrey Pines. How can we dance when our beds are burning? Midnight Oil might have a better angle on trying to solve Day than I do. Is there another baby on the way? Is he hurt again? His last three events on tracks he’s played well over his career he hasn’t found the top 30. Glad I had him MC at Torrey Pines, just like you guys who had him this week.

Tom Hoge: TCU man has been produced a steady stream of results in 2024. Nobody made more feet of putts at TPC Sawgrass. Not many made more doubles or worse. Less water = mo money! T14 and closed with three rounds in the 60s to continue his excellent start to 2024.

Lone Star Longshots:

Alex Noren: Ran T4 here in 2022 but has never lifted a trophy on TOUR. T11 after closing 66-65.

Aaron Rai: There’s no need, in this format at least, to drift down here, but some of you gotta ketchup. And catch up you did, T7.

Mackenzie Hughes: Less trouble off the tee, the better. Big week last week as well. T14 as he stormed home with 65 on Sunday. Hey, lock the back door then!

Cameron Champ/Chandler Phillips: Gig ‘em. I guess “gig ‘em” is Texan for T45.

Anybody with the last name Coody: Texas lads. Big jeans. Big genes. Pierceson T57, Parker MC.

This Week – Valero Texas Open

MY CHOICE: Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Too many good ones to ignore recently (T9, T13)! Hitting it great and full of confidence, there’s nothing to reset or reload after a week off. Already has a “victory” this year after Nick Dunlap won in Palm Springs, but he’d like one of his own!

Other to Consider:

Corey Conners: The “Finau” effect will rush over most of you this week. I don’t blame you. Sometimes, I have to fade myself.

Ludvig Aberg: Not a care in the world as he keeps producing big finishes and is prepping for his first major. Playing four years in Lubbock in the wind will prepare him for another big finish. Why am I not playing HIM this week?

Billy Horschel: Winner in Dallas and Austin, the proof is on in the trophy cabinet. With his excellent form and past excellent course form, he will be tempting for some.

Charley Hoffman: The all-time leading money winner at the Oaks Course already has a podium finish this season in Phoenix but has MC in his last three. San Antonio is chicken soup for his game.

Harris English: Another consistent performer, you might want to save him for Bermuda greens in the summer.

Lone Star Longshots:

Akshay Bhatia: The windier, the better. His only finishes this season are in the top 20.

Aaron Rai: Off T7 last week, did you think I would leave him out?

Matt Kuchar: Never missed and is T3-T2-T12-T7 in the last four years. You will have to check his current form…

Lanto Griffin: Veteran knows how to get it round if the breeze picks up.

Mexico Open at Vidanta Preview

February 21, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Vidanta Vallarta (@PGATOUR on x)

Mexico Open at Vidanta

Greg Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta

Vallarta, Mexico

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Quick Links:

Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks

Top of the Board (odds via Bet365)

Tony Finau (8/1) crushed a better field than this one last year. Posting 24-under to set the tournament scoring record, the highest-ranked player in the field is now 40-under aggregate in two visits. Only Jon Rahm (not entered) has beaten him here.

Nicolai Hojgaard (16/1) is one of many at the top of the board this week who ran well at Torrey Pines last month. Finishing second to Mathieu Pavon (not entered), the young Dane showed he wasn’t bothered by a big track hugging the Pacific Ocean. Cashed T33 here last year but was second to Matt Wallace (80/1) on Paspalum at Punta Cana last spring.

Speaking of Torrey Pines, Stephan Jaeger (22/1) led after 36 and 54 holes before cashing T3. Signing for 73-72 on the weekend, the German is still looking for his first win or second-place finish on TOUR. Making his third start at Vidanta Vallarta, he will look to add to his T18-T15 paydays.

Emiliano Grillo (25/1) has cashed in his first six events of 2024. Highlighted by T7 at Waialae, the Argentine has picked up five top-10 paydays worldwide since winning at Colonial last May. Oh, and he was T20 at Torrey Pines.

Flashing with T9 at The American Express and T17 at TPC Scottsdale, not many drive it better than Keith Mitchell (25/1) regardless of the field. Playing Mayakoba five times, he never finished better than T56. Careful.

Taylor Pendrith (25/1) played five events in the FedExCup Fall and registered three T15 or better paydays, including T3 and T8. In two starts in 2024, he’s cashed T9 (Torrey Pines!!) and T10 with MC sandwiched between. Big power off the tee is the foundation.

After missing the cut in his first try of 2024, Thomas Detry (25/1) rattled off T20 (Torrey Pines!!), T4, and T28 before not qualifying for last week. The Belgian cashed T8 and T15 in back-to-back years at Punta Cana and hit the top 25 in his final two visits to Mayakoba.

Winning four weeks ago in the UAE in his last outing, Thorbjorn Olesen (30/1) continues his run of fantastic play. Cashing 26^th or better in his last eight starts, his annual hot starts to the beginning of the calendar year continue.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

The last time the TOUR stopped in Mexico and played on Paspalum, Erik van Rooyen (33/1) posted three rounds of 64-66-63 to close at El Cardonal and win by two shots. Missing the cut in Phoenix was his first weekend off in 12 starts.

Doug Ghim (45/1) rolls in after cashing T13 (Torrey Pines!!) and T12 in Phoenix. Keep an eye on this ball-striker.

Maverick McNealy (50/1) popped with a season-best T6 at WM Phoenix open after a disappointing T39 in his boyhood backyard at Pebble Beach.

Cameron Champ (55/1) joins Finau, Brandon Wu (40/1), and Patrick Rodgers (33/1) as the only players to hit the top 10 in the first two editions.

Andrew Novak (110/1) grinds his way through big, windy, courses and isn’t bothered by Paspalum.

A winner at Mayakoba, Patton Kizzire (125/1) joins Finau and Charley Hoffman (70/1) as the only players this week to win on a Norman design in Mexico.

With wins at the Puerto Rico Open, Mazatlán Open, and El Bosque Mexico Championship, Martin Trainer (200/1) deserves a punt. Cashing T11 on debut here in 2022, he returns after T15 in Los Cabos last fall. Paspalum specialist and long shot.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Greg Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,456.
Par:	71 (35-36).
Greens:	Platinum Paspalum; 7,000 square feet.
Stimpmeter:	11 feet.
Rough:	Platinum Paspalum at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	106/14/12
Architect(s):	Greg Norman (2015).
Defending Champion (event):	Tony Finau (-24).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	N/A
Course Record:	61; Jon Rahm (Round 3, 2023).
72 Hole Tournament Record	260; Tony Finau (2023).
Fact of the Week:	First-year for the event to be held in February.
Fact of the Week II:	Paspalum for the first time since El Cardonal last fall.

The 64^th edition of the Mexico Open tees off at Greg Norman’s Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta.

The Australian’s coastal design, located just off the Pacific Ocean, opened in 2015. Playing 7,456 yards to Par 71, the track features tee-to-green Platinum Paspalum.

Previously contested in the last week of April and the first week of May, the 2024 edition takes up a new position on the calendar in late February.

To mitigate scoring, the rough has increased to 2.5 inches, up from 1.5 inches from the first two editions.

The resort course provides massive landing areas off the fairway to account for everyday players and the ocean breezes off the Pacific Ocean.

The Paspalum putting surfaces, 7,000 square feet on average, will be prepped to run at just 11 feet, down from 12 feet last year.

Errant tee balls and approaches will have to steer clear of over 100 bunkers and water hazards found on 12 of the 18 holes.

One of the biggest ballparks on TOUR, Vidanta Vallarta will have five Par-3 holes and four Par-5 holes.

Notes:

Field of 132.
The cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
The OWGR is represented by four of the top 50.
$8.1 million – $1.458 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix Open	Nick Taylor
The Genesis Invitational	Hideki Matsuyama

Recent Winners – Mexico Open at Vidanta

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Tony Finau (-24)	Rolled to a three-shot victory over Rahm; Wu was third two back.
2022	Jon Rahm (-17)	Held off Tony Finau and Brandon Wu by one shot.

Angles

The eighth event of the 2024 PGA TOUR season will be the first of two in Mexico this year. El Cardonal in Los Cabos will return in the fall to host for the second time.

The combination of a Greg Norman track and Mexico was in play at Mayakoba on the Yucatan Peninsula from 2007 through 2022.

Paspalum is a common playing surface in the resorts of the Caribbean and Mexico. PGA TOUR events played recently on Paspalum include El Cardonal, Puerto Rico Open, Corales Punta Cana, and Mayakoba. Korn Ferry Tour players have experienced this surface in two events in the Bahamas.

A field of 132, down from previous years due to the early season start and reduced February daylight, will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

Defending champion Tony Finau highlights a field of just four players in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking. At No. 24, he is the highest-ranked player teeing it up this week.

Set during his victory last year, Tony Finau owns the course record on 24-under. The course record of 61, set by Jon Rahm (not entered), was posted in Round 3 of 2023. The cut in the first two editions was 2-under par.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125
WM Phoenix Open	Matt Fitzpatrick	156,200
The Genesis Invitational	Max Homa	329,000

Total Winnings:		1,575,217

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – The Genesis Invitational

West Coast players have feasted here over the years. Only Joaquin Niemann, who is ineligible this week, sticks out like a sore thumb from the list of recent winners. All he did was set the 36-hole and 54-hole scoring record in perfect conditions.

The third of eight Signature Events requires a show of nerves. Either you’re picking an ultra-premium player or you’re hoping to continue to stretch of winners outside 60-1.

With only 40-odd events to choose from, there is absolutely no need to go fishing this week. Save that for next week in Mexico when the field will lighten significantly.

MY CHOICE: Max Homa – T16

It’s his major championship. It’s in his backyard. He’s won it and finished second in the last three editions. The streak of top-10 paydays is four.

The Cooler strikes again! Battling from the word go, the Californian put it together in Round 2 with 65 but couldn’t catch up. A bogey at the last cost 116k but who’s counting?

At least I put Matsuyama in the DFS column!

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: I will not talk you out of him this week. This is not a putting contest and that will help him between the ears from the word go. Damn, 51 guys made the cut. Scheffler was 51^st SG: Putting. Cashed T10.

Collin Morikawa: I’d probably run him out before Scheffler. I like the grass match. Barely hit 50% of GIR. Weird. T19.

Adam Scott: I don’t think I need to dip to 50-1 this week. Might pop in a field with less lumber down the road. T19 on a sponsor’s exemption.

Rory McIlroy: I’m good. See him in Florida or when the weather gets warmer. T24 after opening with 74. Good swerve.

Justin Thomas: T12 or better in every event over the last four months. I’m still holding out for Valhalla. Condolences to those who didn’t. MC.

Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele: If you’re not sold on Cantlay’s form, save him for Memorial. Schauffele is an auto play at any major, especially a U.S. Open. If your game uses The TOUR Championship, that works as well. T4 BOTH! Cantlay was the more disappointing of the two. Sunday scaries continued but it was reported he was sick most of the weekend. Ok.

Tiger Woods: Come on. Just no. He’s +320 to hit the top 20. Go there. Win there. Maybe. Played 24 holes and WD due to illness.

Longshots

Sahith Theegala – T37

Cameron Young – T16

Will Zalatoris – T2

Adam Schenk – MC

Emiliano Grillo – T44

This Week – Mexico Open at Vidanta

The fields in this event during the first two editions have been less than comprehensive.

The argument that the two best players finished first-T2 or T2-first the last two years is difficult to argue.

The winners on TOUR this year suggest that favorite Tony Finau will struggle to defend his title and some 50/1 or worse longshot will steal the trophy on Sunday.

Whatever.

MY CHOICE: Tony Finau

With light wind in the forecast, it’s all systems go. Relax, smoke drivers, wedge it close, and continue to avoid bogeys just off the Pacific Ocean.

Those of you who do not believe a shootout is the best place to run him out, save the champion at Memorial Park in Houston for later in March. Defending his second title of the year, the tee to green requirements in Texas will play more to his set-up, but I would suggest a deeper field.

MUCH deeper.

Nobody said this was easy.

Other to Consider:

Thorbjorn Olesen: Won in the Middle East in his last outing. Former Ryder Cupper plays all four corners of the world, and his game follows.

Cameron Champ: Yep, that’s where we’re at this week. Hitting the top 10 twice in the first two years matches nicely.

Emiliano Grillo: Broke his drought at Colonial last spring. Safest pick on the board.

Thomas Detry: Too many top 25 paydays in thin fields and on Paspalum to ignore.

Longshots

Brandon Wu: Testing the limits of Horses for Courses!

Patrick Rodgers: Same!

Mackenzie Hughes: Flashed for two rounds last week before fading on the weekend.

Charley Hoffman: Previous winner at Mayakoba, should feel right at home.

WM Phoenix Open Preview

February 7, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

WM Phoenix Open

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale

Scottsdale, Arizona

Head to Golfbet for all our content each week:

Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stas Suggest – Expert Picks – Bet365.com Preview

For my picks this week, click on the Bet365.com Preview above.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,261.
Par:	71 (35-36).
Greens:	Poa annua; 7,100 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	12 feet.
Rough:	Overseeded Rye and Poa annua around two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	67/3/6
Architect(s):	Tom Weiskopf & Jay Morrish (1986); Tom Weiskopf (2014 renovation).
Defending Champion (event):	Scottie Scheffler (-19)
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Scheffler (2023, 2022), Hideki Matsuyama (2017, 2016) and JB Holmes (2006, 2004).
Course Record:	61; Jordan Spieth (Round 3, 2021); Wyndham Clark (Round 1, 2020).
72 Hole Tournament Record (post-2014 renovation)	19-under; Scottie Scheffler (2023).
Fact of the Week:	Steve Stricker was the last player to win an event three consecutive years (John Deere Classic 2009-2011).
Fact of the Week II:	Only three internationals have won since 2000.

Notes:

Field of 132.
THE CUT returns this week. The top 65 and ties advance to the final two rounds.
The OWGR is represented by 27 of the top 50.
$8.8 million – $1.584 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix Open

Recent Winners – WM Phoenix Open

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Scottie Scheffler (-19)	Tied the tournament scoring record defending his title. Won by two shots over Nick Taylor. Third place was five back.
2022	Scottie Scheffler (-16)	Defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff to win for the first time on TOUR.
2021	Brooks Koepka (-19)	Set the tournament scoring mark holding off KH Lee and Xander Schauffele by a shot.
2020	Webb Simpson (-17)	Defeated Tony Finau in a playoff.
2019	Rickie Fowler (-19)	Sat 20-under after 54 holes before eventually winning by two shots in cool, rainy, conditions.
2018	Gary Woodland (-18)	Defeated Chez Reavie in a playoff; Circled 26 birdies.
2017	Hideki Matsuyama (-17)	Successfully defended his title knocking out Simpson in a playoff.
2016	Hideki Matsuyama (-14)	Won in his third attempt defeating Fowler in a playoff.
2105	Brooks Koepka (-15)	Won on his debut and won for the first time on TOUR.

Angles

The People’s Open is the largest attended sporting event outside The Olympics.

Over 700,000 people will pack into TPC Scottsdale during the practice rounds and tournament play.

Players distracted by noise, crowds, or nightlife probably didn’t enter this week.

It’s the fourth consecutive week on Poa annua greens but the first in four weeks where only one course will be in play.

Desert golf usually means sunshine, light winds, and warm temperatures. Not this week. Take a look. Cold mornings and the lack of sunshine will make this a miserable slog. Thankfully, TPC Scottsdale drains nicely.

A wet golf course on Thursday will expand the fairways. Less roll equals more width and tighter angles can possibly be attacked. Will it matter if you can’t feel your hands???

The Par-71 has played 7,261 yards since the 2019 edition. Taking advantage of scoring conditions (read: not firm and fast greens) should resemble a dart board. The average winning score here in perfect conditions is around 17-under. Time to score again this week.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125

Total Winnings:		1,090,017

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The second of eight Signature Events, there is NO CUT this week. Toss in wind, rain, and amateurs, and it might be a week to stray from the biggest of names.

Or not.

My theory in this game is simple: You’re not missing out. If you don’t take Scheffler this week and he wins, it’s not one and done. He will play all of the majors, THE PLAYERS, most of the other six Signature Events and the first two rounds of the FedExCup Playoffs. He’s good enough to win again and possibly after that.

MY CHOICE: Jordan Spieth – T39

He embraces the format, can handle the weather, and has the results to back it up. If you’re saving him for the Masters, please re-read the above. I’m trying to catch him on the up on ANOTHER course he has figured out. I didn’t think he would fire at Kapalua, and I was wrong by miles (solo third). After back-to-back top six paydays, I’m going in.

Never in it from the jump, the Texan sat a mile off the lead when the tournament was, rightly, called after 54 holes. I took a chance. I didn’t hit.

Other to Consider:

Viktor Hovland: The 2018 U.S. Amateur winner here has plenty of reps at Pebble. He lives in Oklahoma where wind is just part of life. The only upside of choosing Spieth instead is saving Hovland for later. Cashing T58 and withdrawing from WM Phoenix Open this week wasn’t what I had in mind.

Rory McIlroy: To me, he makes absolutely no sense this week. Not with the events left on the schedule. Not with the tracks he’s crushed still to come. I’ll point out he’s on fire. Got it. Desert golf, with no wind and warm temperatures, is exactly the opposite of what he will face this week. Posted one round in the 60s for T66 out of 80 players.

Ludvig Aberg: There’s nothing left to be written about the Swedish star in the making. The next step for gamers is figuring out his sweet spot. If you’re on the fence this week about the weather/event/choice there are a ton of worse places to default to than this guy. Solo second.

Tommy Fleetwood: Can we get somebody to whisper in his ear that is U.S. Open week? Good job if you resisted! T31.

Jason Day: Because I had him last week. Closed with 63 for T6. Yep, THIS WEEK.

Longshots

Ben An – T31

Denny McCarthy – T26

Nick Taylor – T71

Seamus Power – T31

This Week – WM Phoenix Open

History suggests the BIG PARTY in the desert brings us a big champion (see the table above). Only Webb Simpson (not entered) has won this event BEFORE winning a major championship, but the point stands. TPC Scottsdale identifies big-time talent. The only champion on the list above who has not won a major, to the surprise of many, is Rickie Fowler.

The way 2024 has begun it is OBVIOUS the winner this week will be a Monday Qualifier or the last man into the field after a WD. All five winners have been just short of or above 100-1 to win this season. Wyndham Clark’s victory last week just added to that total as he was as long as 125-1 in places and 66-1 in others.

Whatever

MY CHOICE: Matt Fitzpatrick

It will be cold, and damp, and players will be either into this weather or mentally checked out. The Englishman should feel right at home.

Strong off the tee, this major winner isn’t going to lose any shots on or around the greens either. Making his third consecutive start (T29-T10), it’s obvious he’s not bothered by the raucous environment.

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: If I am going to use him once and only once, thems the rules, I’m going down in an event with BIG BUCKS on the table.

Justin Thomas: Current heat mixes nicely with course form. At this point, I can’t talk myself out of him at Valhalla. You do you.

Hideki Matsuyama: Legit course horse.

Max Homa: No, thanks. Next week.

Wyndham Clark: Following up a round of 60 in victory seems a bit of a stretch.

Byeong Hun An: The putter isn’t the answer, but he won’t miss many Fairways and GIR.

Longshots

Keith Mitchell

Corey Conners

Vincent Norrman

Victor Perez

The American Express 2024 Preview

January 17, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Never leave home without it!

The American Express

The Stadium Course at PGA West (Host)

Nicklaus Tournament Course

La Quinta Country Club

La Quinta, CA

Weekly Readers:

Odds Outlook – click here

Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – click here

Expert Picks – click here

DFS Angles – click here

Bet365.com – click here

Golfbet articles from the entire crew – click here

Welcome to 2024 and the new season.

For those of you who are just arriving for the first time, here’s what’s going on:

Please read the stuff above for the total experience.

Information changes from Sunday to Wednesday morning. If there is anything new/exciting/pertinent, I’ll add it here.

This column is me. My thoughts, my humor, my fun, my opinions. I’m not here for grammar lessons, suggestions, or to charge you.

So shut up, keep up, and enjoy it.

If you have any questions, reach out.

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Scottie Scheffler (11/2): Go on, take the money, and run, goes the song. As Scheffler’s putter goes, his weekly paycheck increases. Nobody hits it better, but when 25-under or better is required, I’m not sure he has enough makes in the flat stick. Take the top 10 and carry on.

Patrick Cantlay (9/1): Don’t forget he used to dominate in the desert outside Las Vegas! The California desert hasn’t been as profitable, but the Californian has racked up three top-10 paydays, including solo second in 2021, in his last four starts. Owning the course record, 61, at the Stadium Course, he’s also produced 62 at La Quinta. He’s my first name on the team sheet this week.

Xander Schauffele (11/1): Returning for the first time since 2017, the Las Vegas resident closed with 62 at the Stadium Course last year to steal a spot on the podium at T3. The last time we saw him in the winner’s circle was in the summer of 2022 in Scotland before The Open Championship. Sitting in the top five in SG: Approach AND Putting, that’s an incredible streak without a win.

Sungjae Im (20/1): Setting the PGA TOUR record for most birdies in a tournament (34) and cashing T5 at Kapalua, the spotlight shines brightly on him this week. Never finishing better than T10 and never worse than T18, it’s not surprising he’s in the field for the sixth consecutive season. This week will be the first time in six seasons he’s not coming directly from Waialae. The Korean posted 20-under last year, his best total, yet it was only good enough for T18.

Tom Kim (20/1): Once Cantlay left the Las Vegas desert, Kim picked up the ball and ran with it. Winning the event the last two seasons, his first two times in the field, he’s proven he can fill it up in perfect scoring conditions. Cashing T6 here last January, the 21-year-old circled 26 birdies and an eagle, plus signed for 62 at the NT. With plenty of options from Korea in the field, he stands out.

Justin Thomas (22/1): Qualifying for Signature Events in 2024 is the carrot for the two-time major winner. Missing out on the playoffs last season, 2024 will require additional concentration, especially with the PGA Championship in his backyard of Louisville coming up in May. The last time he played The American Express was 2015 (T7). A fresh start to a fresh year. All aboard!

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Stadium Course at PGA West
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,187
Par:	72 (36-36).
Greens:	Overseeded Poa annua; 5,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	11 feet.
Rough:	Overseed at 1 inch. Dormant Tifgreen Bermuda at 2 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	Over 90 bunkers, seven holes with water in play.
Architect(s):	Pete Dye (1986).
Defending Champion (event):	Jon Rahm (-27; not entered).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Bill Haas (not on this rotation).
Course Record (last):	61; Patrick Cantlay (Round 4, 2021).
72 Hole Tournament Record (2016-current rotation):	261 (-27); Jon Rahm (2023).
Fact of the Week:	Only six international winners from the previous 64 events.
Fact of the Week II:	Johnny Miller is the only player to defend the title (1975-76).

Notes:

Field of 156.
First multi-course event of 2024 and first pro-am.
The OWGR is represented by 21 of the top 50.
Top 65 and ties will make the cut and play the weekend after 54 holes (play each course once).
$8.4 million – $1.512 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express
Farmers Insurance Open

Recent Winners – The American Express

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Jon Rahm (-27)	Played the final group with Davis Thompson and beat him by a shot to win for the second time.
2022	Hudson Swafford (-23)	Defeated Tom Hoge by two shots to win for the second time.
2021	Si Woo Kim (-23)	Only made two bogeys for the week on the SC/NT rotation to win by one.
2020	Andrew Landry (-26)	Tied the tournament scoring record winning by two.
2019	Adam Long (-26)	Became the first rookie to win since Jhonattan Vegas (2011).
2018	Jon Rahm (-22)	Needed a playoff to knock off Andrew Landry.
2017	Hudson Swafford (-20)	Wet, windy weekend produced the highest winning total to date in the new rota.
2016	Jason Dufner (-25)	Saw off David Lingmerth in a playoff in the first iteration of Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and LQCC

Angles

The Nicklaus Tournament Course plays to Par-72 and 7,147 yards. Playing 7,000 square feet on average, the Overseeded Poa annua greens are the largest of the three courses. Dylan Wu (2023) and Will Zalatoris (2022) have posted 61 here.

La Quinta Country Club is known for premium putting surfaces and usually plays the easiest of the trio. All three courses have minimal rough and green speeds that won’t broach 11 feet. Playing to Par-72 and 7,060 yards, it plays as one of the easiest on TOUR annually. Adam Hadwin posted 59 in Round 3 in 2017.

All eight winners have posted 20-under or better to win and have ranked in the top 10 in Par-4 and Par-5 scoring.

The HIGHEST cut in this rotation in the last three editions was 7-under. The 2021 edition used only the Stadium Course and NT and was a 36-hole chop.

First tournament with Poa annua Greens.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action from Bet365.com:

JT Poston (30/1): Making his third start in three events to start the season, he posted T3 in Las Vegas in the fall, T5 at Sentry, and solo sixth last week. Circling 29 birdies in 2023, he cashed T6 here last season. When trends converge, I jump.

Taylor Montgomery (50/1): Solo fifth on debut last year included three rounds of 66 or better. This desert doesn’t have the distraction of his home tournament in Las Vegas.

Adam Hadwin (60/1): One of the course horses this week, he’s never missed in seven visits and owns four top-10 paydays. Running second to Kim at Shriners in the fall, a missed cut last week at Sony will not deter me.

Taylor Pendrith (80/1): I might add every Canadian to my ticket. In his last five events, he’s posted T15 in four of his last five, including three in the top 10. Buy all you can get.

Grayson Murray (125/1): In six visits he’s posted T14 or better three times. I’ll ride the bounce from last week.

Patton Kizzire (125/1): Second consecutive week as a sponsor’s exemption. Cashing T13 last week, he’ll look to add to T11 and T22 in his previous two visits to La Quinta.

Sam Ryder (150/1): T13 and T10 in his last two appearances during his streak of nine consecutive made cuts.

Chesson Hadley (200/1): Cashing his last eight on TOUR includes T7 twice in two of his last four, including one in Las Vegas. He’s missed the weekend here on his last three trips so something has to give!

Jacob Bridgeman/Adrian Dumont de Chassart (300/1): The kids are all right. After both missed the cut last week, it’s time to put their heads down and make a bunch of birdies, just like they did all last season on the KFT.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express
Farmers Insurance Open

Total Winnings:		709,092

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Back to the mainland and the West Coast swing. Poa annua (except for the North Course at Torrey) for this week, Farmers, and Pebble Beach.

Two major differences this week:

Poa
Three courses

The American Express has produced six different winners over eight editions. Sadly, for gamers and gamblers, the bingo card of conquerors in the desert is quite full.

As I wrote last week, winning $1.5 million this week is great, but that’s almost third place for a major, FedExCup Playoff event, THE PLAYERS or seven more Signature Events.

This is a week where I’m going to take a chance with an angle, consequences be damned!

Recapping Last Week – Sony Open in Hawaii

MY CHOICE: Corey Conners – T57

The Canadian finished the week T80 of 81 players in Putting, needing 126 of them. Right, there were just 72 holes, got it.

Considerations

Eric Cole: Tough laydown this week as his form and function have been firing for months. Just a matter of preference. T13.

Russell Henley: I won’t talk you out of him this week, but I prefer him on a tougher ball-striking layout. Hairs split. Closed with 63 for T4. Sigh.

J.T. Poston: It shouldn’t be a surprise that this is most of my lineup in Expert Picks. Closed with 61 for 6^th. Sigh.

Matt Kuchar: Nobody in the field this week has done it better at Waialae. It’s here or Harbour Town if you’re gonna ride. #ShorterTheBetter. MC. Careful with 40-somethings…

Hideki Matsuyama: Dead last in putting last week. Needed the best putting numbers of his life to win this (his only top 10) two years ago. Careful. T30. If you didn’t use him this week he’s live for TPC Scottsdale or Memorial.

Will Zalatoris: Hard to saddle a guy after 81 and 79 in his last official outing. Be patient. 76-69. See you down the road.

Longshots

J.J. Spaun: I prefer him on Poa, but he’s been super consistent recently. MC

Chan Kim: Hawaiian native lit up the KFT late and has plenty of experience in the Pacific Rim. Ahhhhhhhhhhh, the ol’ 75-64…

This Week: The American Express

MY CHOICE: Adam Hadwin

Nobody is more comfortable on these three courses, and he has the scar tissues to prove it. The Canadian will look to make it eight from eight and add to his three finishes on the podium.

Others to Consider

Tom Kim: Tough laydown, especially after 66 to close at Kapalua to kick-start his 2024. His desert record is making me reconsider this pick until the first tee time on Thursday. Stay tuned.

Chris Kirk: T18-WIN in the last two weeks, plus he closed 63-64 here last year for T3.

J.T. Poston: Copied, pasted.

Justin Thomas: He’s not in any Signature Events until he qualifies. One leads to another. Saving him for the PGA Championship in his native state of Kentucky outside his birth city of Louisville is understood.

Patrick Cantlay: If you believe a big 2024 is brewing, I would not be surprised to see it start this week on these three tracks.

Longshots

Taylor Montgomery: When form meets course history…

Patton Kizzire: Probably not in THIS format. Probably everywhere else.

Glass Houses

Fantasy Golf Only

pgatour.com DFS Angles

Valero Texas Open Preview

Valero Texas Open

Mexico Open at Vidanta Preview

Mexico Open at Vidanta

One and Done

This Week – Mexico Open at Vidanta

WM Phoenix Open Preview

WM Phoenix Open

One and Done

The American Express 2024 Preview

One and Done

This Week: The American Express