Ludvig Aberg (+900): Nothing has slowed him down over the last two months and I don’t believe a resort course setting is going to do the trick. The problem with a shootout and appears to be what we will have on the cards this week, is making enough putts over four days to win. Remember in Las Vegas he needed 62 on Sunday just to hit T13. He won’t be in my win tickets.
Cameron Young (+1200): Rest or rust? Returning to tournament competition for the first time in ten weeks, the big bomber should be licking his chops and cleaning the grooves on his wedges. Time to exact his revenge for the Ryder Cup snub?
Sahith Theegala (+1400): The interesting angle this week involves, for me, putters versus ball-strikers. With massive targets off the tee and into the greens, I would think the less accurate will have more chances to wield the putter. The absence of rough (there literally isn’t any) combined with only one water hazard should make for a less stressful week. Not many are better on and around the greens than Theegala. With a trophy on the shelf from Fortinet, he should be playing freely for the rest of the FedExCup Fall.
Beau Hossler (+2500): Looking to breakthrough for the first time on TOUR, he continues to sniff around over the last three months. Back-to-back top-10 paydays plus a run of T30 or better highlights his consistency. Add a few more bucks and take the top 20 price.
Stephan Jaeger (+2800): Making his 125th start on the PGA TOUR, he is still looking for his first podium finish. Cashing in 28 of his last 31 events including too many in a row to count, the German is on great form but hasn’t been pushing into contention on the weekends.
Lucas Glover (+3000): Nobody was interested in thinking he would end the regular season with a win and follow it up with another in the first FedExCup Playoff event. Never posting a two-win season in his career, he’s now checked that box. Time for three? I don’t think so. The putter, which was white hot for a month, has had ten weeks off from competition.
Akshay Bhatia (+3000): If this week wasn’t on Paspalum, I’m not sure he’s up here. The winner at Barracuda in July, the lefty hasn’t popped a top 20 in his last six on TOUR. BUT MAN HE LOVES PASPALUM. Opening the 2022 KFT season he won on this surface in the Bahamas, In 2023 he’s cashed solo second in Puerto Rico, T24 Corales Puntacana and solo fourth at Vidanta Mexico Open.
J.J. Spaun (+3000): After cashing in eight straight on TOUR, Spaun rolls in after his best result (T6) last week since The Sentry last January. Finding his form in the FedExCup Fall, he sits at No. 56 entering the week. One more decent finish will push him into The Ten for 2024. Everyone is playing for something!
Emiliano Grillo (+3000): Fade or follow. The man is in form, and he absolutely shreds on Paspalum. With a victory at Colonial in May, another course he annually produces on when playing, stacking his first, two-win season is on the cards. The Argentine is my first name on the team sheet this week.
Thomas Detry (+3300): The only man listed at 33/1, the Belgian has cashed eight straight worldwide. On closer inspection his best of the bunch was T13 at The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool. His only win in professional golf was in 2016, but he has cashed second multiple times. Digging deeper, he’s posted T15 or better the last three times at Mayakoba and never missed in five visits.
NOW PLAYING:
Host Course
El Cardonal at Diamante.
Yards (per official scorecard):
7,452.
Par:
72 (36-36).
Greens:
Platinum Paspalum.
Stimpmeter:
11.5 feet.
Rough:
There isn’t any!
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play
48/1/1.
Architect(s):
Tiger Woods (2014).
Defending Champion (event):
Russell Henley (not entered).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:
N/A.
Course Record (last):
Inaugural event.
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):
Inaugural event.
Fact of the Week:
First Tiger Woods designed course to be used on the PGATOUR.
Fact of the Week II:
Resort course Par-72.
Notes:
Field of 132
The OWGR is represented by 5 of the top 50.
Nine of the top 10 FedExCup Fall are entered.
Fifth event of the FedExCup Fall season (seven events).
$8.2 million – $1.475 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.
Season Winners
2022-2023 Season Winners
Event
Winner
Fortinet Championship
Max Homa
Sanderson Farms Championship
Mackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s Open
Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Keegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREE
Rory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Seamus Power
Mayakoba Championship
Russell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston Open
Tony Finau
The RSM Classic
Adam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii
Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS
Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open
Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach
Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open
Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational
Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic
Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship
Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship
Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana
Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP
Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners
Masters
Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta
Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship
Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson
Jason Day
PGA Championship
Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge
Emiliano Grillo
Memorial
Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open
Nick Taylor
U.S. Open
Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship
Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic
Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship
Brian Harman
3M Open
Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship
Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship
Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship
Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship
Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship
Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship
Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open
Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Collin Morikawa
Recent Winners – World Wide Technology Championship
Italics – not entered this week.
Year
Winner
Notes
2022
Russell Henley
Posted 23-under, won by four. Paspalum layout at Mayakoba.
2021
Viktor Hovland
Posted 23-under, won by four. Paspalum layout at Mayakoba.
2020
Viktor Hovland
Posted 20-under, won by a shot. Paspalum layout at Mayakoba.
2019
Brendon Todd
Posted 20-under, won by a shot. Paspalum layout at Mayakoba.
2018
Matt Kuchar
Posted 22-under, won by one. Paspalum layout at Mayakoba.
Longer Shots, Longest Shots, Others
Now, let’s have some fun! New course, no weather, big fairways, big greens, and plenty of rounds in the 60s should be flying around.
There is plenty of like-for-like between 35 and 50 but I’ll point out Adam Svensson (+3500) has cashed nine straight T41 or better. … I keep falling back to Las Vegas guys again this week in the arid, desert-like setting so don’t be surprised if 54-hole leader in Japan, Justin Suh (+5000), starts rolling in putts from everywhere. … Taylor Montgomery (+6000) is starting to come around again and enjoys Par Breakers for breakfast. … Brandon Wu (+7000) loves Mexico and Paspalum. … Maverick McNealy (+8000) returns this week after a long layoff rehabbing a shoulder. I don’t like the number but when healthy, he can get it going with the putter. … Mackenzie Hughes (+10000) always pops up this time of year and has two previous podiums on this surface. … There’s my Paspalum buddy Cam Percy (+30000) sitting in the weeds. … My three best BOOM OR BUST picks are Harry Hall (+10000), Ryan Moore (+20000), and Brice Garnett (+30000).
Xander Schauffele (7/1): Class is permanent. Form is temporary. Looking to pick up his third top 10 from four starts at Narashino, it’s hardly a surprise he’s the favorite. Limited field, no-cut events have been his calling card over the last five seasons. With ties to the area (his mother is Japanese), I would expect another spirited 72 holes.
Collin Morikawa (11/1): Making his fourth start, the two-time major champ will look to pick up his second top-10 paycheck. Flashing glimpses with 64 twice, the Californian has produced just one top 20 (T7) in three previous attempts. Punishing fairways and greens, I prefer his putter on Bentgrass, in play this week, over Bermuda.
Sungjae Im (12/1): The quiet summer finally bloomed when the biggest (non-major) money was on the table in the FedExCup Playoffs. Cashing T14 at Wyndham to end the regular season was followed by T6 in Memphis and solo seventh at the BMW Championship. Winning the Asian Games and finishing P2 last week in Korea suggests the momentum should be very real this week. I’m on board!
Hideki Matsuyama (16/1): Second on debut. Winner by five in his second attempt. Native son. Crowd favorite. The last time he played on TOUR he withdrew at the BMW Championship. Lovely risk/reward proposition based on his course history.
Rickie Fowler (16/1): Many, including myself, thought this would be his launching point for the 2022-23 season last October. Instead, he was beaten to the finish line in the final group by Keegan Bradley. The leader after 36 holes and 54 holes posted 70 in Round 4 and lost by a shot. If he’s healthy this week, he will factor again.
Min Woo Lee (16/1): There’s no chance I’ll ignore 30-under and a victory last week. The field in Macau wasn’t the strongest, but there’s no better tonic after three weeks off than a win, regardless of field or course. The rust is gone, the confidence is high, and the Australian will look to keep it going as summer approaches in his native land.
Sahith Theegala (18/1): The confluence of results here is strong. Winning for the first time on TOUR in his last time out combined with T5 in his first event here last October equals a “no-brainer”. Guys who win for the first time on TOUR should be allowed to celebrate, relax, and enjoy the fruits of the labor. I’m not fading Theegala this week. I’m also pushing him to the front.
Cameron Davis (20/1): Primed to kick down the door, the Australian has cashed in the top 10 in five of his last six events. Copy and paste until he does.
NOW PLAYING:
Host Course
Narashino Country Club
Yards (per official scorecard):
7,079.
Par:
70 (34-36).
Greens:
Bentgrass.
Stimpmeter:
N/A.
Rough:
N/A.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play
N/A.
Architect(s):
Kinya Fujita (1965).
Defending Champion (event):
Keegan Bradley.
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:
N/A.
Course Record (last):
61; John Huh (not entered), 2022.
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):
261; Tiger Woods (2019).
Fact of the Week:
The 2020 edition was held in Los Angeles at Sherwood Country Club.
Fact of the Week II:
Five Par-3 holes and three Par-5 holes. Oh, and every hole has two greens.
Notes:
Field of 78.
The OWGR is represented by 15 of the top 50.
46 players competed last week in Las Vegas.
Six of the top 10 in Las Vegas are in the field this week.
The fourth event of the FedExCup Fall season (seven events).
$8.5 million – $1.53 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.
Season Winners
2022-2023 Season Winners
Event
Winner
Fortinet Championship
Max Homa
Sanderson Farms Championship
Mackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s Open
Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Keegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREE
Rory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Seamus Power
Mayakoba Championship
Russell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston Open
Tony Finau
The RSM Classic
Adam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii
Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS
Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open
Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach
Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open
Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational
Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic
Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship
Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship
Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana
Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP
Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners
Masters
Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta
Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship
Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson
Jason Day
PGA Championship
Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge
Emiliano Grillo
Memorial
Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open
Nick Taylor
U.S. Open
Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship
Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic
Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship
Brian Harman
3M Open
Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship
Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship
Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship
Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship
Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship
Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship
Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open
Tom Kim
Recent Winners – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Italics – not entered this week.
Year
Winner
Notes
2022
Keegan Bradley (-15)
Caught and passed second and third round leader Rickie Fowler in the final group on Sunday.
2021
Hideki Matsuyama (-15)
Opened with 64, closed with 65 and won by five after being runner-up to Tiger Woods in the inaugural event in 2019.
2020
Patrick Cantlay
Won in Los Angeles.
2019
Tiger Woods (-19)
Circled 27 birdies, most in the field by seven. Won by three over Matsuyama. Six clear of third.
Longer Shots, Longest Shots, Others
Cameron Champ (45/1): There’s no value here, but the heat is real. After missing the cut at Fortinet, he rebounded with T9 at SFC and T18 last week in Las Vegas. Posting four rounds in the 60s on debut last year, he went home with solo eighth prize money. … Alex Noren (45/1) cashed T3 last week after hitting T2 GIR. Game travels. … Joel Dahmen (66/1) has produced in his last three on Bentgrass greens (T7, T13, and T10). Sold. … With all the eyeballs on Matsuyama, Takumi Kanaya (80/1), another former great Japanese amateur, will look to sneak in the back door again. Posting four top sevens in his last seven events, I’ll play one JTGO member this week. Cashing T7 here in 2021 doesn’t push me away. … Michael Kim (90/1) closed 65-65 last week in Las Vegas for T18 after T5 in his previous TOUR start. … Mackenzie Hughes (110/1) has made two visits and they have resulted in T4 and T23.
My thoughts on the top 10 players on the betting market.
Ludvig Aberg (12/1): He was my selection in the Expert Picks and I haven’t found anything to scare me off. Two things are in play: Another top finish and he’s locked up the big events early next year. Another victory worldwide pushes him into the top 50 OWGR and that will solve plenty of issues moving forward.
Tom Kim (12/1): The Korean will have to spring to life quickly after a long layoff. Returning to the event to defend should kick him into LET’S GOOO mode, plus he’s too young to be complacent.
Cam Davis (22/1): Australian summer is here! His outstanding form continued in Wine Country and should be on display again this week in Las Vegas. With his ball-striking, he should be a factor weekly.
Si Woo Kim (22/1): With the mandatory military service situation solved, the Korean should be playing free as a bird this week. Cashing four top 25 paydays from six starts includes T8-MC-T8 in his last three.
Adam Schenk (30/1): Not wanting 2023 to end, the career season continues on a track he’s found success recently. Fantastic TOUR Championship result was his fourth top 10 in seven starts.
JT Poston (30/1): Cashed for T25 or better in six of his last seven. Like Tom Kim, he’s also posted 20-under plus at Wyndham to win. Oh, and he was bogey-free as well!
JJ Spaun (33/1): West coast player. West Coast recent results. Plenty of evidence, including three T15 or better here, recently.
Tom Hoge (33/1): Trending here (T4-T14-T24).
Beau Hossler (35/1): Super form, super putter.
Eric Cole (35/1): Plays every week, produces every week. Fearless rookie in a putting contest isn’t the worst angle I’ve heard this week.
Vincent Norrman (35/1): With a win at Barbasol, I won’t have to worry about him being in contention come the weekend.
Andrew Putnam (35/1): Super short game blends with wonderful iron play. Another West Coast player.
NOW PLAYING:
Host Course
TPC Summerlin.
Yards (per official scorecard):
7,255.
Par:
71 (35-36).
Greens:
Dominator Bentgrass; 7,400 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:
12.5 feet and up.
Rough:
419 Bermudagrass at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play
92/4/4.
Architect(s):
Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller (1992).
Defending Champion (event):
Tom Kim.
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:
Martin Laird.
Course Record (last):
60; Patrick Cantlay (not entered), 2021.
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):
260; Tom Kim (2022).
Fact of the Week:
Exclusive host since 2008.
Fact of the Week II:
Only two events in the last calendar year have produced more birdies than the 2022 edition.
Notes:
Field of 132.
The OWGR is represented by eight of the top 50.
Third event of the FedExCup Fall season (seven events).
$8.4 million – $1.512 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.
Season Winners
2022-2023 Season Winners
Event
Winner
Fortinet Championship
Max Homa
Sanderson Farms Championship
Mackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s Open
Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Keegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREE
Rory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Seamus Power
Mayakoba Championship
Russell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston Open
Tony Finau
The RSM Classic
Adam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii
Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS
Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open
Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach
Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open
Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational
Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic
Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship
Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship
Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana
Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP
Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners
Masters
Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta
Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship
Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson
Jason Day
PGA Championship
Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge
Emiliano Grillo
Memorial
Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open
Nick Taylor
U.S. Open
Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship
Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic
Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship
Brian Harman
3M Open
Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship
Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship
Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship
Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship
Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship
Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship
Luke List
Recent Winners – Shriners Children’s Open
Italics – not entered this week.
Year
Winner
Notes
2022
Tom Kim (-24)
Bogey-free champion. Ties tournament scoring record. Wins by three.
2021
Sungjae Im (-24)
Opened with 63, closed with 62 to win by four and tie the tournament scoring record.
2020
Martin Laird (-23)
Won a three man playoff for his second victory at TPC Summerlin.
2019
Kevin Na (-23)
Defeated Patrick Cantlay to win for the second time at TPC Summerlin.
2018
Bryson DeChambeau (-21)
Four rounds of 66 or better and won by a shot.
Longer Shots, Longest Shots, Others
Adam Hadwin (40/1) is a must-play this week. … Matthew NeSmith (66/1) has never finished worse than T18 in four tries and ran joint second last year. … Troy Merritt (100/1) has made two starts in the FedExCup Fall and has cashed two top-10 paychecks. … Harry Hall (125/1) played college golf in town at UNLV and has hit the top 15 both times he’s played. … Kelly Kraft (225/1) is trending so nick in for a Top 40.
My thoughts on the top 10 players on the betting market. Check the linked columns above for extra information, course angles, and other stats.
Ludvig Aberg (12/1): The stress of his first Ryder Cup, the celebration of the first victory, and the party/jet lag that came with it isn’t the recipe for me. His talent suggests that he could win every time he tees it up. I don’t think a shootout this week fits for me. You do you!
Stephan Jaeger (18/1): Making cuts for fun, the German has rarely threatened on the weekend. In 123 starts on TOUR, he’s never hit the podium.
Eric Cole (20/1): The birdie machine kicked off the FedExCup Fall with solo fourth in Wine Country. Nobody on TOUR has made more birdies this season and not many putt better. His best result was a playoff loss on Bermuda in March. Gotta chuck him in this week!
Lee Hodges (25/1): The 3M Open winner from July will look to add his second title in four months close to his native Alabama. The switch back to Bermudagrass this week won’t bother him a bit.
Emiliano Grillo (25/1): Each day this week he’s grown on me more. Playing for the fifth consecutive season in an event he DOES NOT NEED TO PLAY (he has status for next season) tells me what I need to know. Tying for fifth in 2022 was his best in four consecutive seasons. I’m on board.
Beau Hossler (28/1): Finished the previous “season” in fantastic form hitting the top 30 in five of his last six. Looking for his first TOUR victory, he returns for the first time since 2020.
Lucas Herbert (30/1): Followed him for a couple of holes when he was posting 63 at Silverado to open the FedExCup Fall. He fell to T30 at the end of the week but that’s still a clue. Putting matters at SFC and he excels on the accessible greens.
Keith Mitchell (30/1): The Tennessee native should thrive on Bermuda and a track where a big driving week could help. Only one top 10 since February doesn’t inspire.
S.H. Kim (30/1): I would put him 1-2 with Eric Cole this week. The Korean only posted three bogeys finishing second at Fortinet and he finished second to Cole in SG: Tee to Green. Another super putter, I’ll ride his recent tee to green heat to the winner’s circle.
Garrick Higgo (35/1): The lefty was third here on debut and led the field in birdies in 2022. The winner at Congaree on a big, Bermudagrass ballpark has been a bit all-or-nothing recently (MC-MC-T13-T19).
NOW PLAYING:
Host Course
Country Club of Jackson
Yards (per official scorecard):
7,461.
Par:
72 (36-36).
Greens:
Champion Bermuda; 6,200 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:
12.5 feet and up.
Rough:
419 Bermudagrass and Zoysia blend at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play
56/7/5.
Architect(s):
John Faught (2007 redesign).
Defending Champion (event):
Mackenzie Hughes (-17).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:
None.
Course Record (last):
61; Will Zalatoris (not entered), 2021.
72 Hole Tournament Record:
266; Sam Burns (2021).
Fact of the Week:
10th consecutive year as host.
Fact of the Week II:
The first six champions were first-time winners. Of the last four champions, three were internationals.
Notes:
Field of 144.
The OWGR is represented by two of the top 50.
The second event of the FedExCup Fall season (seven events).
Season Winners
2022-2023 Season Winners
Event
Winner
Fortinet Championship
Max Homa
Sanderson Farms Championship
Mackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s Open
Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Keegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREE
Rory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Seamus Power
Mayakoba Championship
Russell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston Open
Tony Finau
The RSM Classic
Adam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii
Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS
Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open
Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach
Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open
Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational
Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic
Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship
Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship
Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana
Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP
Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners
Masters
Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta
Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship
Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson
Jason Day
PGA Championship
Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge
Emiliano Grillo
Memorial
Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open
Nick Taylor
U.S. Open
Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship
Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic
Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship
Brian Harman
3M Open
Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship
Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship
Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship
Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship
Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship
Sahith Theegala
Recent Winners – Sanderson Farms Championship
Italics – not entered this week.
Year
Winner
Notes
2022
Mackenzie Hughes (-17)
Canadian wins on his third visit in playoff over Sepp Straka (not entered).
2021
Sam Burns (-22)
Set the tournament scoring record winning by a shot.
2020
Sergio Garcia (-19)
Held off 2017 champion Peter Malnati by a shot.
2019
Sebastian Munoz (-19)
Knocked off Sungjae Im in a playoff for his first career victory.
2018
Cameron Champ (-21)
Canadian wins on his third visit in a playoff over Sepp Straka (not entered).
2017
Ryan Armour (-19)
Picked up his first TOUR victory at 41, the oldest to do so at CCofJ.
2016
Cody Gribble (-20)
Rookie wins by four and picks up his first TOUR trophy.
2015
Peter Malnati (-18)
Held off veterans William McGirt and David Toms for his first win.
2014
Nick Taylor (-16)
The first winner at CCofJ.
Longer Shots, Longest Shots, Others
Hayden Buckley and Davis Riley are locals who have both sniffed around the leaderboard in their home state. … Callum Tarren rolls in off T7-MC-T13 in his last three. … Dylan Wu is also simmering with T14-T51-T5 in his last three. … CT Pan hasn’t hit the top 10 here but has posted T11 and T12 in two of his last three. … Jason Dufner is quietly going about his business with four of his last five on TOUR ranging between T19 and T31.
Max Homa (7/1): Not only will he be battling a field of 155 others, but history will not be on his side either. Since 2011, many have tried, but all have failed, to win an event three consecutive times. Steve Stricker, at the John Deere Classic in July of 2011, is the last man to climb that mountain. The Californian is 35-under in his last two visits and enters the week on RED-HOT form. Racking up four consecutive top-10 paydays, his worst finish from his last six events is T21. I’m a sucker for historic performances, so I’ll sprinkle a win ticket here, just in case.
Justin Thomas (14/1): Cashing in the top 10 in his last three visits at Silverado has not helped his number for those looking for value this week. After being named a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup by Zach Johnson, I don’t think he’s longing in the confidence department. The pressure of making the FedExCup Playoffs didn’t flip the switch. Perhaps the freedom of being a member of the USA team headed to Italy next week will be the tonic. I’ll let you show me.
Sahith Theegala (14/1): Picking up T15 and T13 in two FedExCup Playoff events should bang him back into rhythm. Missing three cuts before the Playoffs, his last top 20 was T5 at Harbour Town the week after the Masters. The Pepperdine alum cashed T14 in 2020 on his debut and hit the top 10 last year with T6. Never missing the cut in three starts, he will look to pick up his first win on TOUR.
Cameron Davis (20/1): The Australian’s blazing sprint to make the FedExCup Playoffs and then qualify for the second event, the BMW Championship, isn’t lost on me. Picking up five top-10 paychecks in his final 13 starts, he’s already qualified for 2024 so his arrival this week tells me everything I need to know. The big-boy ball-striker will look to improve on T17 on his debut at Silverado in 2018. I’m going to saddle up here.
Stephan Jaeger (22/1): Racking up 13 consecutive weekends, the German has been on fire. Conversely, he’s produced just two top-10 finishes from 26 cuts made in 29 events. Securing just four top-10 paydays from 122 TOUR starts, his best payday in Wine Country is T30 in 2017.
NOW PLAYING:
Host Course
Silverado North Course
Yards (per official scorecard):
7,123.
Par:
72 (35-37).
Greens:
Poa annua/Bentgrass; 5,400 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:
12 feet.
Rough:
Ryegrass/Bentgrass blend at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play
52/2/2.
Architect(s):
Ben Harmon (1955); Robert Trent Jones (1966); Johnny Miller (2011).
Defending Champion (event):
Max Homa (-16).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:
Max Homa (2022, 2021).
Course Record (last):
61; Ricky Barnes (2019), Chesson Hadley (2018).
72 Hole Tournament Record:
267; Stewart Cink (-21), 2020.
Fact of the Week:
10th consecutive year as host.
Fact of the Week II:
Five of the last nine winners are Californians
Notes:
Field of 156.
The OWGR is represented by 4 of the top 50 players.
First event of the FedExCup Fall season (seven events).
Season Winners
2022-2023 Season Winners
Event
Winner
Fortinet Championship
Max Homa
Sanderson Farms Championship
Mackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s Open
Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Keegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREE
Rory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Seamus Power
Mayakoba Championship
Russell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston Open
Tony Finau
The RSM Classic
Adam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii
Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS
Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open
Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach
Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open
Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational
Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic
Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship
Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship
Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana
Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP
Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners
Masters
Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta
Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship
Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson
Jason Day
PGA Championship
Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge
Emiliano Grillo
Memorial
Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open
Nick Taylor
U.S. Open
Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship
Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic
Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship
Brian Harman
3M Open
Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship
Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship
Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship
Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship
Viktor Hovland (3)
Recent Winners – Fortinet Championship
Italics – not entered this week.
Year
Winner
Notes
2022
Max Homa (-16)
Wins for the third time in his native state as he defended the title.
2021
Max Homa (-19)
Closed 65-65 to win by a shot in his sixth attempt at Silverado.
2020
Stewart Cink
Closed 65-65 to win for the first time since 2013 on TOUR.
2019
Cameron Champ (-17)
Sacramento native bombed his way to his second win on TOUR.
Since 2006 East Lake Golf Club has hosted the TOUR Championship exclusively. The FedExCup Playoffs, which began in 2007, will crown another champion on the Donald Ross layout in Atlanta. Rory McIlroy returns as the defending champion.
Scottie Scheffler (-10) will try to win from the front again this year. He’s been caught once. All it took last week to beat him was 65-61 on the weekend!
Viktor Hovland (-8) was the man who did it! Making his fourth start at East Lake, the Norwegian loves a ball-striking test and this qualifies. Momentum is very real in this game.
Rory McIlroy (-7) has been here, done this now three times. Streaking into East Lake with nine consecutive top-10 paydays, he’ll find a layout where he’s cashed in the top 10 on seven of nine visits.
Jon Rahm (-6) surprisingly didn’t catch fire at Olympia Fields last week. The 2020 winner in Chicago didn’t factor but is only four shots back beginning the week.
Lucas Glover (-5), to the surprise of most, will be making his fifth appearance at the season-end money grab at East Lake. Gaining shots off the tee is a major factor this week and that’s his angle. The last time we saw him putt on Bermuda, he made EVERYTHING in Memphis!
Max Homa (-4) set the Bermuda course record here last year with 62 in Round 2. Not bad for his second competitive round! Cashing T5 in his first trip to East Lake, I wouldn’t be surprised if he beats that mark this season.
Patrick Cantlay (-4) has produced his two best results in the last two seasons. Winning the title in 2021, he returned last year and left with T7. Finishing T20 or worse in his first three attempts was confounding.
Brian Harman (-4) will look to add the FedExCup trophy to his Claret Jug in a very busy summer. The lefty took home T5 money last week in Chicago and will be making his third start in his native Georgia.
Welcome Wyndham Clark (-4) to the big show! The first-timer has two wins under his belt from Quail Hollow and the U.S. Open this season. Don’t be surprised if he shows up, shoots a million, and laughs all the way to the bank. He’s on the Ryder Cup. He’s a major champion. At some point the tank empties.
Matt Fitzpatrick (-4) broke out of a stagnant run of form last week (T2) that stretched all the way back to the Memorial Tournament in late May. Making his second visit to East Lake after T15 last year, he’ll look to keep the Chitown Mo rolling in Atlanta.
Tommy Fleetwood (-3) makes his third appearance but first since 2019. The Englishman has never bested 68 in eight rounds at East Lake. He’ll need to crank it up a few notches this week to contend.
Russell Henley (-3) also returns to his native Georgia for the first time since T3 in 2017. Posting eight rounds over two visits he’s signed for 67 or better in half of them. IF he can get his putter going, he makes for a lovely dark horse to break onto the podium again.
Keegan Bradley (-3) returns for the first time since 2018 and fifth time overall. Picking up T11 in 2011, his rookie year, is his best of the bunch. With his putting greatly improved over the last five years, I’m interested to see how it holds up on slick, grainy, Bermuda this week. I’ll let you ride it.
Rickie Fowler (-3) will be making his first start at East Lake since T19 in 2019. Winning in Detroit in July hasn’t kicked him on like I thought it would. His play leading up to Detroit was fantastic. A big week will make Zach Johnson’s big decision much, much, easier. Unless Fowler already knows the outcome…
Xander Schauffele (-3) has some of the best history on this track (non-McIlroy division). The 2017 winner has never finished worse than T7, posted a round above 70, and owns at 67.25 stroke average. Heating up at the right time with T8 last week, he has my full attention on a course he loves.
Tom Kim (-2) has won on a Donald Ross design at Wyndham and frankly, nothing seems to bother him. He gets my vote for best finish for a debutant this week.
Sungjae Im (-2) was T2 last year and posted 16-under gross. His worst round last season was 67. Only McIlroy has posted a better four-round gross in event history. Ding. Arriving on solo seventh and T6 in the previous two Playoff events will not deter me!
Tony Finau (-2), enter the joke, “where he be now?”. He be in the TOUR Championship for the seventh consecutive season, tying Rahm for the longest streak. Posting 64 in Round 4 last year saw him pick up his third top-10 payday in that streak with T9. He’s never cashed better than T7.
Corey Conners (-2) makes his fourth appearance at East Lake and will be looking for his first bonus check inside the top 20. The Canadian appears to be getting closer as he posted 66 and 67 last season, his best from his 12 loops.
Si Woo Kim (-2) made his only appearance in 2016 with T10. He’s always worth a punt on Bermuda and has a victory on a Donald Ross track at Sedgefield.
Taylor Moore (-1) SHOULD improve on his 18-over result from Olympia Fields, right? He SHOULD challenge Tom Kim for the best newcomer.
Nick Taylor (-1) won his national open in the most dramatic of fashion. He’s a hero regardless of his score/finish this week. Buy that man a Molson!
Adam Schenk (-1) has had a super season and this week should present a fantastic free roll. Nothing wrong with having some fun this week and enjoying the dreams of the next two years on TOUR.
Collin Morikawa (-1) will have four more chances to hone his skills on Bermuda greens. I will gladly sit on the sidelines and watch without an investment.
Jason Day (-1) was told by his wife to “keep playing” if she goes into labor. Distractions, like injuries, can shift the focus and free the mind. First appearance since 2018 and ninth overall.
Sam Burns (Even) was supposed to break out in Memphis, light up the Bermuda greens, and put me right back into the Expert Picks game. Bitter? Me? Nah.
Emiliano Grillo (Even) returns for the first time since T10 in 2016. Closing 66-69, he posted his best two rounds after getting comfortable. He’ll need plenty of rounds in the 60s this week to leapfrog the gang in front of him.
Tyrrell Hatton (Even) will have to navigate another week in hot, humid conditions. His smile should return as he remembers he posted 66 twice, plus a 67, cashing seventh in his only visit in 2020.
Jordan Spieth (Even) won here in 2015 but hasn’t found the top 10 since 2017. I’d love to see him open with 63 and see where it goes. Part of me believes it will be a Rosetta Stone week. Tu parli Italiano?
Sepp Straka (Even) showed up last year for the first time, posted three rounds of 68 and a 64, and collected seventh-place bonus money.
NOW PLAYING:
Host Course
East Lake Golf Club
Yards (per official scorecard):
7,346.
Par:
70 (35-35).
Greens:
Mini Verde ultradwarf Bermuda; 5,600 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:
12.5 feet and up.
Rough:
419 Bermudagrass at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play
75/5/4
Architect(s):
Donald Ross (1913).
Defending Champion (event):
Rory McIlroy (-17 gross; -21 net).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:
Rory McIlroy has won this event three times including two of the last four.
Course Record (last):
62; Max Homa (Round 2, 2022).
72 Hole Tournament Record:
263; Rory McIlroy (2022).
Fact of the Week:
Final event on this layout as renovation begins after the event ends. East Lake will be ready for play this time in 2024.
Fact of the Week II:
Rory McIlroy is the only winner in the Starting Strokes era not to start on 10-under. He’s done it twice.
Notes:
Field of 30.
The OWGR is represented by 26 of the top 31 players.
No-cut event.
At the conclusion of play, the final bonuses will be paid based on the position of finish. Read more here.
Season Winners
2022-2023 Season Winners
Event
Winner
Fortinet Championship
Max Homa
Sanderson Farms Championship
Mackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s Open
Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Keegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREE
Rory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Seamus Power
Mayakoba Championship
Russell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston Open
Tony Finau
The RSM Classic
Adam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii
Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS
Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open
Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach
Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open
Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational
Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic
Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship
Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship
Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana
Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP
Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners
Masters
Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta
Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship
Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson
Jason Day
PGA Championship
Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge
Emiliano Grillo
Memorial
Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open
Nick Taylor
U.S. Open
Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship
Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic
Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship
Brian Harman
3M Open
Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship
Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship
Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship
Viktor Hovland (2)
Recent Winners – East Lake
Italics – not entered this week.
Year
Winner
Notes
2022
Rory McIlroy (-17)
Won for the third time. Set the tournament scoring record (-17; gross). Made up six shots in the final round to beat Scheffler.
2021
Patrick Cantlay (-11)
Starting Strokes leader after his win the previous week at BMW. Won his first FedExCup championship.
2020
Dustin Johnson (-11)
Starting Strokes leader won his 6th FedExCup Playoff event and first championship.
2019
Rory McIlroy (-13)
One of only two players (Schauffele) to post double digits under par. Began the week five off the lead.
2018
Tiger Woods (-11)
Justin Rose won the war becoming FedExCup champion.
Rory McIlroy (7/1) circled the second-most birdies here in 2020 but also squared 18 bogeys (T12). After posting eight consecutive top-10 paydays, including a come-from-behind victory at the Scottish Open, he is still looking for his first victory on U.S. soil in 2023. The only surprise this week would be if he’s not in contention Sunday afternoon.
Scottie Scheffler (7/1) surely cannot post three consecutive starts outside the top 20, right? His two worst paydays (T31, T23) have occurred in his previous two starts on TOUR. Everybody knows the club that is holding him back. Everyone has known this for three months. The Texan closed with 66 here in 2020 during his rookie season.
Jon Rahm (10/1) is the only player in the field who has a victory to their name on this course. Posting 4-under 276 after 66-64 on the weekend, the Spaniard forced and won a playoff to secure his first FedExCup Playoffs victory. The uneven waves of momentum (T37-T2-MC-T10) over his last four starts have confounded investors. The big money is on the line next week.
Patrick Cantlay (10/1) enters the week as the two-time reigning champion, albeit on two very different layouts in Maryland and Delaware. Sharing the 36-hole lead with McIlroy in 2020, the Californian has annually been in the mix at this point in the season over the last three years. Defeated last week in a playoff in Memphis after closing with 64, I’m not worried about his current form.
Viktor Hovland (16/1) won at the Memorial Tournament earlier this year, one of the toughest tests of 2023. Posting 7-under, he defeated Denny McCarthy in a playoff to pick up his first win in the U.S.A. The tight fairways, firm and fast Bentgrass, and deep Kentucky Bluegrass rough outside of Chicago proper should remind him of his happiest days of this season.
Top 10/Top 20/Top 40
Collin Morikawa (20/1): Anybody who ranks in the top four in Fairways AND GIR will factor this week. If he’s going to have a great week with the putter, it will be on Bent/Poa.
Max Homa (22/1): Watching him graduate to a tough-track specialist has been fantastic. Wins at Riviera, Quail Hollow, and Torrey Pines suggest this task is not too tall for him.
Corey Conners (40/1): The experience of winning twice at the challenging AT&T Oaks Course in San Antonio should translate this week. Fantastic metrics tee-to-green have my full attention.
Longer Shots
Use ’em wherever you see fit!
Cam Davis (55/1): I can’t ignore the heat and the results. He’s been in this column the last two weeks and has paid off handsomely. Crashing and burning is an option this week, I know, but I’m going to ride until I’m bucked off.
Sahith Theegala (80/1): Looking to book his second consecutive trip to East Lake, he’ll gladly take his chances on a tough, ball-striking layout.
Patrick Rodgers (150/1): His best paydays have been on big, burly tracks such as Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, and Muirfield Village GC.
Angles at Olympia Fields
The summer of Lucas Glover heads to Chicago. After winning the final event of the regular season, the veteran picked up 2,000 more FedExCup points, winning last week at TPC Southwind to jump to No. 4 in the FedExCup standings.
2020 rewind:
The course played as the fourth-most difficult track during the 2020 season (71.815).
Through three rounds there were only 30 rounds (from 70 players) in the 60s before an additional 33 were signed for on Sunday.
The first two rounds produced exactly 11 rounds in the 60s.
There were eight bogey-free rounds for the week. Half of them posted on Sunday.
Became the only event this century (non-major) to feature 2 or less players under par after 54 holes.
Matt Fitzpatrick was the only competitor squaring fewer than 10 bogeys (9) for the week.
FedExCup Playoffs Event 2 Bubble:
25. Corey Conners
26. Tyrrell Hatton
27. Jordan Spieth
28. Sungjae Im
29. Chris Kirk
30. Sam Burns
31. Sahith Theegala
32. Justin Rose
33. Kurt Kitayama
34. Denny McCarthy
35. Seamus Power
The winner takes home $3.6 million of the $20 million purse, plus 2,000 FedExCup points.
NOW PLAYING:
Returning to the North Course at Olympia Fields for just the second time in FedExCup Playoffs history (2020), the top 30 players at the conclusion of play this week will advance to The TOUR Championship at East Lake GC in Atlanta.
Playing to Par-70 and 7,366 yards, the historic course set in the Chicago suburbs matches the scorecard from 2020. The challenges this week include tree-lined dog legs, water penalty areas on half of the holes, and the return to slick Bent/Poa putting surfaces.
Hosting the 2003 U.S. Open and 2020 BMW Championship, Olympia Fields is more mysterious than known quantity on TOUR. Of the 70 players who teed it up in 2020, 24 will return this week from the field of 50.
Good luck.
Host Course
North Course
Yards (per official scorecard):
7,366
Par:
70 (35-35).
Greens:
Bent/Poa; 6,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:
12.5 feet.
Rough:
Kentucky Bluegrass four inches and higher.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play
85/2/9
Architect(s):
Willie Park (1923)
Defending Champion (event):
Jon Rahm (-4; playoff).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:
Patrick Cantlay has won the last two EVENTS (not played at this course).
Course Record (last):
63; Vijay Singh (2003 U.S. Open).
72 Hole Tournament Record:
276; Jon Rahm (2020).
Fact of the Week:
24 of the 50 players in the field played in the 2020 event (70 players).
Fact of the Week II:
Only five players broke par in 2020.
Notes:
Field of 50.
The OWGR is represented by 41 of the top 50 players.
No-cut event.
At the conclusion of play, the top 30 players in the FedExCup Rankings advance to The TOUR Championship next week in Atlanta at East Lake Golf Club.
Season Winners
2022-2023 Season Winners
Event
Winner
Fortinet Championship
Max Homa
Sanderson Farms Championship
Mackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s Open
Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Keegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREE
Rory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Seamus Power
Mayakoba Championship
Russell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston Open
Tony Finau
The RSM Classic
Adam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii
Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS
Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open
Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach
Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open
Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational
Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic
Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship
Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship
Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana
Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP
Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners
Masters
Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta
Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship
Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson
Jason Day
PGA Championship
Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge
Emiliano Grillo
Memorial
Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open
Nick Taylor
U.S. Open
Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship
Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic
Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship
Brian Harman
3M Open
Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship
Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship
Lucas Glover (2)
Recent Winners – Olympia Fields
Italics – not entered this week.
Year
Winner
Notes
2020
Jon Rahm (-4)
Opened 75-71 before closing 66-64 to win a playoff.
Wash. Rinse. Repeat. If Scottie Scheffler (6/1) is in the field, he’s on the top of the heap. Check the stats below for more proof. With solo fourteenth as his best result, this is hardly his happy hunting ground. With difficult driving conditions and small targets for approach shots, this layout SHOULD fit him perfectly. Well-rested after three weeks off, I’ll be interested to see how quickly he knocks off the rust.
Runner-up at The Open Championship, Jon Rahm (8/1) has spent the last two weeks chasing his kids around. Posting top-10 paydays in two of his previous three visits, including T5 last year, he will have 72 holes to play himself back into shape. The stakes for the players at the top of the Bet365.com board are minimal. The studs have earned their place in the final at East Lake two weeks from now.
Rory McIlroy (9/1) completes the “normal” troika atop the board in the most important events on TOUR. Like his fellow stars above, he’s never lifted the trophy at FedExCup Playoffs, WGC-FESJI, or FedEx St. Jude Classic played on this layout. Leading by one after 54 holes in 2019, McIlroy settled for T4 after closing with 71. It would be daft to suggest he cannot win this week, but his focus will be on winning the FedExCup Playoffs for the fourth time at East Lake, two weeks from Sunday.
Patrick Cantlay (16/1) has confounded gamers recently, but this is his time of year. The last two seasons he’s perked up on the East Coast, winning the BMW Championship in Delaware and Maryland. His success here has been limited to T12 on his debut, while his last three haven’t been inside T20. Saving a win ticket for next week in Chicago, on his preferred Bentgrass, will be my angle.
If there’s a limited-field, no-cut event, the first name that jumps off the page is Xander Schauffele (18/1). Winning at East Lake in his first attempt at the FedExCup Playoffs in 2017, he served notice. The following season he added two more wins in fields with fewer than 80 players. Sitting No. 16 in the FedExCup standings, he’s hit the top 25 in 10 of his last 11 worldwide starts.
Viktor Hovland (18/1) ripped late spring to shreds with top-10 paydays at the first two major championships of the season before finally breaking through at the Memorial Tournament. Navigating a Jack Nicklaus design where the winning total was eight-under-par, the Norwegian won in a playoff to pick up his first win in the continental United States. His last four starts have collected T29 or better, with the best paycheck cashing T13. Making his fourth start in Memphis, his T20 payday was the best of his three visits.
Top 10/Top 20/Top 40
Sam Burns (30/1): The Louisiana native just needs to follow the river upstream to find another track where he’s played well. With five wins to his name, four have come on Bermudagrass greens, including his WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club earlier this year. Heat, humidity, and slick Bermuda should have his full attention this week. After losing a playoff in 2021 and cashing T20 last year, I know it has mine.
Matt Fitzpatrick (35/1): The Englishman has gone off the boil recently. With three top-10 paydays from four starts in the home of the blues, I’m hoping the tight fairways and small greens perk him back to life. One of only two players who entered this week with three top-10 results, I’ll back him to add to his total.
Byeong Hun An (55/1): Hitting the podium in two of his last three events, the Korean will look to add to the list of first-time winners on this track. Playing from the final group in 2020, his final round 73 dropped him back to T12. Matching his current form with a taste of blood makes for a more than decent chance this week.
Longer Shots
Use ’em wherever you see fit!
JT Poston (50/1): I believe in the heat. Top-10 paydays in four of his last five and is a fairway finder.
Andrew Putnam (125/1): A pair of top-10 finishes include a Sunday playing from the final group. Cashed seven straight entering this week.
Cam Davis (80/1): I love momentum. The Aussie needed a T7-T10 regular season finish to qualify. No reason to pack up and go home now!
Lee Hodges (90/1): Life changed with his dominant victory two weeks ago at the 3M Open in Minnesota. Playing his first FedExCup Playoffs last season, he opened and closed with 65 in Memphis and shared 13th place.
A few tidbits jumped off the page this week.
The last two winners on this property won for the first time on TOUR. Nobody has ever won on their first FedExCup Playoff event before Will Zalatoris (not entered; injured) did it last year. Camilo Villegas won the final two events in 2007, but not the first one. While Zalatoris defeated the top 124 players from the FedExCup Playoffs last year, Abraham Ancer (not entered) knocked out the 65 eligible players in the WGC-FESJI in 2021. The champions from 2014 through 2022 are not eligible or playing this week.
The last two events on the property have resulted in playoffs. Last year a total of 15-under was necessary to play extra holes. It took 16-under to win the 2021 edition. Par is a solid score, but the last three editions have produced 30 players posting 10-under or better.
Not surprisingly, the scoring average has remained sub-70 since the field was reduced to WGC status followed by the top 125 in the FedExCup last season. The elite players, and fewer of them, will not produce scores which, will inflate the scoring average. With the pressure and prestige of cashing in a FedExCup event or WGC opportunity, each shot will be more measured, especially with the prize pools and status awaiting the top finishers.
The bubble entering FedExCup Playoffs Event 1:
45. JT Poston
46. Tom Hoge
47. Mackenzie Hughes
48. Cameron Young
49. Lucas Glover
50. Nick Hardy
51. Alex Smalley
52. Thomas Detry
53. Taylor Montgomery
54. Davis Riley
55. Brandon Wu
The winner takes home $3.6 million of the $20 million purse, plus 2,000 FedExCup points.
NOW PLAYING:
Beginning last September in Wine Country, the PGA TOUR season concluded last week on Tobacco Road. Only the top 70 players from the season-long-FedExCup standings, who survived the previous 44 events, were presented with a ticket to win the FedExCup Championship.
For the second consecutive season, the FedExCup Playoffs will begin at TPC Southwind in Memphis. The design from Ron Prichard has hosted an event since its inception on the PGA TOUR in 1989. The club has hosted three World Golf Championship events and the first event of the FedExCup Playoffs in the last four seasons.
Playing to Par-70, the design has never stretched over 7,300 yards. Tipping at 7,243 yards, TPC Southwind has 11 water penalty areas and 419 Bermudagrass rough off the tee to provide the defense. Into the greens, some of the smallest on TOUR at 4,200 square feet on average, Champion Bermuda provides the perfect surfaces to hole birdie putts and save pars from off the green. This year, there isn’t a pesky 36-hole cut to worry about. Everyone will have four rounds to attempt to advance to the BMW Championship next week in Chicago at Olympia Fields (North Course).
Good luck.
Host Course
TPC Southwind
Yards (per official scorecard):
7,243.
Par:
70 (35-35).
Greens:
Champion Bermudagrass; 4,200 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:
12.5 feet.
Rough:
419 Bermudagrass at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play
75/11/11
Architect(s):
Ron Prichard (1988).
Defending Champion (event):
Will Zalatoris (not entered).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:
None.
Course Record (last):
61; Tom Lewis (not entered), Round 3, 2020.
72 Hole Tournament Record:
261; Dustin Johnson (not entered), 2018.
Fact of the Week:
Harris English is the only previous winner in TPC Southwind (since 1989) history in the field this week.
Fact of the Week II:
If any player withdraws before the start of play, THEY WILL NOT BE REPLACED IN THE FIELD OR THE FEDEX CUP PLAYOFFS.
Notes:
Field of 70.
The OWGR is represented by 40 of the top 50 players.
No-cut event.
At the conclusion of play, the top 50 players in the FedExCup Rankings advance to the BMW Championship next week in Chicago.
Season Winners
2022-2023 Season Winners
Event
Winner
Fortinet Championship
Max Homa
Sanderson Farms Championship
Mackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s Open
Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Keegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREE
Rory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Seamus Power
Mayakoba Championship
Russell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston Open
Tony Finau
The RSM Classic
Adam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii
Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS
Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open
Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach
Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open
Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational
Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic
Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship
Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship
Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana
Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP
Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners
Masters
Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta
Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship
Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson
Jason Day
PGA Championship
Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge
Emiliano Grillo
Memorial
Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open
Nick Taylor
U.S. Open
Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship
Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic
Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship
Brian Harman
3M Open
Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship
Lucas Glover
Recent Winners – TPC Southwind
Italics – not entered this week.
Year
Winner
Notes
2022
Will Zalatoris (-15)
Defeated Sepp Straka in a 3-hole playoff to win for the first time on TOUR.
2021
Abraham Ancer (-16)
Knocked out Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff to win for the first time on TOUR. World Golf Championship event.
2020
Justin Thomas (-13)
Won by three shots over four players not in the field this week.
2019
Brooks Koepka (-16)
Blew away Rory McIlroy by six shots in the final group to win the first WGC-FESJI event here.
2018
Dustin Johnson (-19)
Won the final regular TOUR event here before the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills.
Last Week – Wyndham Championship
Chalk (via Bet365.com)
Hideki Matsuyama (18/1)is the co-favorite this week though he hasn’t produced a top-10 payday since THE PLAYERS Championship in May. Currently No. 56 in the FedExCup standings, he’s signed for three top-15 paydays from seven tries in Greensboro. The highlights include T3 in 2016 and T11 in 2018. Not. Even. Close. Bud. MC 71-74.
The 2016 winner, Si Woo Kim (18/1), joins Matsuyama at the top of the board. The Korean held a two-shot lead after 54 holes in 2021 before he was left behind for T3 by Jim Herman on Sunday. The 28-year-old Korean, who has posted rounds of 60 and 62 in his four top-five finishes here, has already won a shoot-out this season at the Sony Open in Hawaii and posted 22-under to share second at the AT&T Byron Nelson in May. T33.
Sungjae Im (20/1)resides in this column weekly outside of the major championships. Sadly, for bettors, his recent run of form should scare off any takers again this week.
BUT.
After missing the cut in four of his last eight appearances on TOUR, the return to Bermudagrass is my angle this week. Last spring, he rattled off T6 at THE PLAYERS, T7 at RBC Heritage, solo sixth at TPC Louisiana, and T8 at Wells Fargo, all on Bermudagrass. His previous four visits to Sedgefield have included three top-10 paydays, including T2 last year. Putting him in play this week makes sense.Nope, still no top-10 payday since May. T14.
Russell Henley (20/1)should have won this event in 2021. He led by three entering the final round, but a closing 71 saw him miss the six-man playoff by a shot. Missing a putt for par on the final hole saw him miss out on the six-man playoff. With three consecutive trips inside the top 10 at Sedgefield, the Georgia native has proven his worth in Greensboro. The last time he played in this part of the world, he cashed T4 at Augusta National and followed it up with T19 at RBC Heritage. His only missed cuts in the last three months are the PGA Championship and The Open Championship. I’m not sure he makes enough birdies to contend, but his recent results at this event tell a different story.T2
Sam Burns (25/1)has produced just one top-10 paycheck since winning in March at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. The Louisiana native has won on Bermudagrass in four of his five wins on TOUR. Changing grass may sound mundane, but players who grew up on Bermudagrass simply prefer Bermudagrass. In his only appearance in 2020, he closed 65-65 for T13 and posted all four rounds in the 60s. His return this season tells me all I need to know. Sitting No. 19th in the FEC standings, it’s obvious he doesn’t need the points. Heavy lean. T14.
Denny McCarthy (25/1)is a better putter, statistically, than Burns, but doesn’t have the four wins, or any wins, to match. Knocking on the door with T11 or better payoffs in five of his last nine on TOUR, he posted 60 at the Travelers and posted 18-under. Before missing the cut at The Open, he signed for more birdies posting 16-under at the John Deere Classic. Bouncing back to Bermuda won’t bother him! Nice 25/1 exacta with these last two.Didn’t see that MC coming down the tracks!
Top 10/Top 20/Top 40
JT Poston (28/1), the 2019 winner, will look to become the only two-time winner at Sedgefield since 2008. He was inches away from making the 3M Open more interesting than expected last Sunday before finishing T2. His response after the tournament was great. He’s playing to win and doesn’t care about anything else standing in the middle of the fairway late on Sunday.T7 pays at this window.
Alex Smalley (35/1) is no stranger to this part of the world. The Duke alum has not missed in his two previous starts the last two seasons and has cashed twice in the top 30.MC
Byeong Hun An (40/1)hit the podium here in 2019 and has been playing well recently. Made a hole-in-one yesterday!T2.Boom.
Eric Cole (66/1) or Ben Griffin (70/1) could fit in this spot. Both are excellent putters, but Griffin was solo fourth last year closing 64-64. Nobody has more rounds in the 60s than Cole this season as he can really roll the rock as well.Cole did, T14. Griffin, MC, did not, but will enter the playoffs at No. 70. Whew.
Andrew Putnam (70/1) – T27
Garrick Higgo (75/1) – MC
Longer Shots
Use ’em wherever you see fit!
If Webb Simpson (80/1) is going to factor, this is the week. I’m not headlining my card with him, but his record here (2011 win; 9 top 10s) from 12 weekends in 14 starts is ridiculous. Sprinkles on the top 10, top 20, and top 40 markets, just in case.T5 and a nice payday!
Brandt Snedeker (175/1) flashed just enough signs of life last week at TPC Twin Cities for me to take a nibble this week. Playing himself back into tournament shape after sternum surgery, finishing his season on a familiar track should have his full attention.T45.
Chesson Hadley (100/1) is from Raleigh and has produced his best two paychecks (T8, T15) in his last two visits. Picking up his first top-10 payday of the season two weeks ago at Barracuda, I’m not worried about his current form. Cashing T27 last week at the 3M Open will not hurt his confidence.T33.
OAD – 2023 Spotter’s Game
Already Burned
Sungjae Im – Maui
Tom Kim – Sony
Tom Hoge – AMEX
Viktor Hovland – Pebble
Xander Schauffele – WMPO
Max Homa – Riviera
Shane Lowry – Honda
Tyrrell Hatton – API
Akshay Bhatia – PRO
Jason Day – THE PLAYERS
Justin Rose – Valspar
Cam Percy – Corales
Scottie Scheffler – WGC MP
Rickie Fowler – Valero
Jordan Spieth – Masters
Collin Morikawa – RBC Heritage
Billy Horschel – Zurich
Nicolai Hojgaard – Mexico
Rory McIlroy – WFC
Adam Scott – ATTBN
Brooks Koepka – PGA Championship
Chris Kirk – Colonial
Patrick Cantlay – Memorial
Matt Fitzpatrick – RBC CO
Jon Rahm – US Open
Harris English – Travelers
Davis Riley – RMC
Adam Schenk – JDC
Tommy Fleetwood – Scottish Open
Cameron Smith – The Open
Cameron Young – 3M Open
Denny McCarthy – Wyndham
This Week – FedEx St. Jude Championship
Sam Burns
Just missed: Russell Henley, Brian Harman, Jason Day
Last Week – Wyndham Championship
Denny McCarthy – MC
Just missed: Russell Henley – T2, Si Woo Kim – T33, Eric Cole – T14
The regular season finale on the PGA TOUR provides the final chance to compete for the FedExCup Playoffs championship. Since 2007, the Wyndham Championship has been the last-chance saloon to punch a golden ticket for the riches of the post-season.
Moving to Sedgefield Country Club, a Donald Ross design from 1926 renovated for the 2008 edition, Greensboro, North Carolina, continues its rich tradition on the PGA TOUR. The 82nd event in town will now determine the final SEVENTY players eligible for the FedExCup Playoffs. The previous 15 editions sorted out the top 125 who were eligible. For the 2023 edition, only the top 70 will qualify for the FedExCup bonus pool.
It’s back to Bermudagrass tee-to-green for the first time since Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte in early May. Making money this week will be a direct result of finding and putting on the Champion Bermuda greens. The winning formula here includes plenty of rounds, if not all, in the 60s. It’s hard to go low two-putting every green.
Playing 7,131 yards to a Par-70, the classic Sedgefield Country Club has crowned winners young, old, and everything in between. Defending champion Tom Kim, the second youngest winner at 20 years old on TOUR since World War II, will not defend his title this week after injuring his ankle at The Open Championship two weeks ago. The return to wall-to-wall Bermudagrass has produced winning scores on average of 20-under over the last seven years.
The field of 156, if not already in the top 70 in the FedExCup standings, will need to throw caution to the win, make a pile of birdies, and hope that’s good enough. The previous 43 events provided plenty of chances. The 44th and final event is just that.
The bubble entering this final week:
65. Matt NeSmith
66. Vincent Norrman
67. JJ Spaun
68. Ben Griffin
69. Cam Davis
70. Austin Eckroat
71. Ben Taylor
72. Garrick Higgo
73. KH Lee
74. David Lingmerth
75. Davis Thompson
Everyone on the list above is playing this week, plus Shane Lowry (No. 76), Justin Thomas (No. 79), and Adam Scott (No.81).
Davis Love III won this tournament in his 50s in 2015.
Tom Kim won this event as a 20-year-old last year.
Jim Herman picked up his third win on TOUR in 2020.
Kevin Kisner won a six-man playoff in 2021.
JT Poston tied the course record in 2019 and didn’t make a bogey.
Brandt Snedeker opened with 59 here on his way to victory in 2018.
Arjun Atwal was victorious in 2010 as a sponsor’s exemption.
If it can happen, it will happen on this course.
The winner takes home $1.368 million of the $7.6 million purse, plus 500 extremely important FedExCup points.
Good luck.
Host Course
Sedgefield Country Club
Yards (per official scorecard):
7,131
Par:
70 (35-35).
Greens:
Champion Bermudagrass; 6,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:
12.5 feet.
Rough:
Bermudagrass at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play
52/5/6
Architect(s):
Donald Ross (1926); Kris Spence (2007).
Defending Champion (event):
Tom Kim (-20; not entered).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:
Brandt Snedeker (two different courses).
Course Record (last):
59; Brandt Snedeker, 2018.
72 Hole Tournament Record:
258 (-22); JT Poston, 2019; Henrik Stenson (not entered), 2017.
Oldest Winner:
51; Davis Love III, 2015.
Youngest Winner:
20; Tom Kim, 2022.
Fact of the Week:
Average winning score the last seven years is 20-under.
Fact of the Week II:
First week on tee-to-green Bermuda since Quail Hollow Club in early May.
Notes:
Field of 156 players
From the OWGR top 50, 14 players are entered this week.
Top 65 and ties will play the final 36 holes.
Final regular season event.
Season Winners
2022-2023 Season Winners
Event
Winner
Fortinet Championship
Max Homa
Sanderson Farms Championship
Mackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s Open
Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Keegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREE
Rory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Seamus Power
Mayakoba Championship
Russell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston Open
Tony Finau
The RSM Classic
Adam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii
Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS
Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open
Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach
Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open
Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational
Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic
Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship
Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship
Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana
Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP
Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners
Masters
Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta
Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship
Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson
Jason Day
PGA Championship
Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge
Emiliano Grillo
Memorial
Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open
Nick Taylor
U.S. Open
Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship
Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic
Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship
Brian Harman
3M Open
Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Recent Winners – Wyndham Championship
Italics – not entered this week.
Year
Winner
Notes
2022
Tom Kim (-20)
Closed with 61 to win by five shots and pick up his first TOUR win.
2021
Kevin Kisner (-15)
Won a six-man playoff.
2020
Jim Herman (-21)
Closed 61-63 to win by a shot.
2019
JT Poston (-22)
First winner on TOUR since 1974 to win an event not making a bogey or worse.
2018
Brandt Snedeker (-20)
Set the course record of 59 in Round 1 before winning by three.
2017
Henrik Stenson (-22)
Set the tournament record on 22-under par.
This Week – Wyndham Championship
Chalk (via Bet365.com)
Hideki Matsuyama (18/1) is the co-favorite this week though he hasn’t produced a top-10 payday since THE PLAYERS Championship in May. Currently No. 56 in the FedExCup standings, he’s signed for three top-15 paydays from seven tries in Greensboro. The highlights include T3 in 2016 and T11 in 2018.
The 2016 winner, Si Woo Kim (18/1), joins Matsuyama at the top of the board. The Korean held a two-shot lead after 54 holes in 2021 before he was left behind for T3 by Jim Herman on Sunday. The 28-year-old Korean, who has posted rounds of 60 and 62 in his four top-five finishes here, has already won a shoot-out this season at the Sony Open in Hawaii and posted 22-under to share second at the AT&T Byron Nelson in May.
Sungjae Im (20/1) resides in this column weekly outside of the major championships. Sadly, for bettors, his recent run of form should scare off any takers again this week.
BUT.
After missing the cut in four of his last eight appearances on TOUR, the return to Bermudagrass is my angle this week. Last spring, he rattled off T6 at THE PLAYERS, T7 at RBC Heritage, solo sixth at TPC Louisiana, and T8 at Wells Fargo, all on Bermudagrass. His previous four visits to Sedgefield have included three top-10 paydays, including T2 last year. Putting him in play this week makes sense.
Russell Henley (20/1) should have won this event in 2021. He led by three entering the final round, but a closing 71 saw him miss the six-man playoff by a shot. Missing a putt for par on the final hole saw him miss out on the six-man playoff. With three consecutive trips inside the top 10 at Sedgefield, the Georgia native has proven his worth in Greensboro. The last time he played in this part of the world, he cashed T4 at Augusta National and followed it up with T19 at RBC Heritage. His only missed cuts in the last three months are the PGA Championship and The Open Championship. I’m not sure he makes enough birdies to contend, but his recent results at this event tell a different story.
Sam Burns (25/1) has produced just one top-10 paycheck since winning in March at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. The Louisiana native has won on Bermudagrass in four of his five wins on TOUR. Changing grass may sound mundane, but players who grew up on Bermudagrass simply prefer Bermudagrass. In his only appearance in 2020, he closed 65-65 for T13 and posted all four rounds in the 60s. His return this season tells me all I need to know. Sitting No. 19th in the FEC standings, it’s obvious he doesn’t need the points. Heavy lean.
Denny McCarthy (25/1) is a better putter, statistically, than Burns, but doesn’t have the four wins, or any wins, to match. Knocking on the door with T11 or better payoffs in five of his last nine on TOUR, he posted 60 at the Travelers and posted 18-under. Before missing the cut at The Open, he signed for more birdies posting 16-under at the John Deere Classic. Bouncing back to Bermuda won’t bother him! Nice 25/1 exacta with these last two.
Top 10/Top 20/Top 40
JT Poston (28/1), the 2019 winner, will look to become the only two-time winner at Sedgefield since 2008. He was inches away from making the 3M Open more interesting than expected last Sunday before finishing T2. His response after the tournament was great. He’s playing to win and doesn’t care about anything else standing in the middle of the fairway late on Sunday.
Alex Smalley (35/1) is no stranger to this part of the world. The Duke alum has not missed in his two previous starts the last two seasons and has cashed twice in the top 30.
Byeong Hun An (40/1) hit the podium here in 2019 and has been playing well recently. Made a hole-in-one yesterday!
Eric Cole (66/1) or Ben Griffin (70/1) could fit in this spot. Both are excellent putters, but Griffin was solo fourth last year closing 64-64. Nobody has more rounds in the 60s than Cole this season as he can really roll the rock as well.
Andrew Putnam (70/1)
Garrick Higgo (75/1)
Longer Shots
Use ’em wherever you see fit!
If Webb Simpson (80/1) is going to factor, this is the week. I’m not headlining my card with him, but his record here (2011 win; 9 top 10s) from 12 weekends in 14 starts is ridiculous. Sprinkles on the top 10, top 20, and top 40 markets, just in case.
Brandt Snedeker (175/1) flashed just enough signs of life last week at TPC Twin Cities for me to take a nibble this week. Playing himself back into tournament shape after sternum surgery, finishing his season on a familiar track should have his full attention.
Chesson Hadley (100/1) is from Raleigh and has produced his best two paychecks (T8, T15) in his last two visits. Picking up his first top-10 payday of the season two weeks ago at Barracuda, I’m not worried about his current form. Cashing T27 last week at the 3M Open will not hurt his confidence.
Last Week – 3M Open
Chalk (via Bet365.com)
Cameron Young (14/1) shares the top spot this week after another fantastic week at The Open Championship. Tying for eighth place, the power player from New York will look to turn his recent momentum into his first victory on TOUR. History suggests he should fit right in at TPC Twin Cities after Tony Finau and Cameron Champ, two of the longest guys around, have won the last two editions. Young will have to navigate 27 water penalty areas scattered through 15 holes. A putter that cooperates this week will also go a long way to securing that first title. I usually do not ride chalk, but this week I’ll make an exception.I should listen to myself more often. MC.
Sungjae Im (14/1)joins Young at the top of the board. The Korean ran T2 here last season and picked up a share of 15th place on debut in 2019. Earning his keep with the driver, he should excel this week playing from the fairway. Making 38 birdies in two visits and posting 14-under par each trip suggests this track fits his eye. His last top 10 on TOUR was in the first week of May at Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow, nine events ago. Not very often when the top two choices don’t play the weekend! MC.
Tony Finau (16/1)returns this week for the fifth consecutive season. After winning here last year, his first victory on TOUR since 2016, the big hitter went on to win the Rocket Mortgage Championship the following week. The momentum carried him to a third win, this time in Houston, in November 2022. Comfortably sitting 10th in the current FedExCup standings, he will look to add another podium finish at TPC Twin Cities (T3, 2020) and break a personal drought of seven straight events without a top 20 payday.T5 affirms his love in The Land of 10,000 Lakes. Drought busted.
A healthy Hideki Matsuyama (16/1) slides next to Finau as co-second choice this week. Posting T13 at The Open Championship equaled his best finish in 10 since cashing T5 at THE PLAYERS Championship. The Japanese tee-to-green stalwart cashed T7 on debut here in 2019 but withdrew after Round 1 (77). Sitting at No. 54 in the FEC standings, his focus will be on a big finish this week to push him into the top 50 or, even better, with a win, into the top 30.Opened with 64 and that was that. T30.
Emiliano Grillo (22/1)rolls into Minnesota in form and with proper course history. The intersection of both angles is always an eye-catcher. The Argentine ended his drought from 2015 with a playoff victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge in May. Returning from Royal Liverpool with T6 money, he will look to add his third podium finish in four tries after T2 last year and T3 in 2020. Playing from the final group last year, he should be ready to take the next step on his fourth visit.T10 adds another big finish at this event.
It is impossible not to consider Sepp Straka (25/1). Winner of the John Deere Classic in early July on the back of rounds of 63 and a closing round of 62, the Austrian decided that was all the prep he needed for The Open Championship. Showing up fresh at Royal Liverpool, he battled the elements, but not his swing, as he posted four rounds of par or better, including both weekend rounds in wet, rainy conditions to share second. Making his fourth start at TPC Twin Cities, he’s cashed once, closing with 63 for T18 in 2020.MC. Didn’t break 71.
Top 10/Top 20/Top 40
Justin Thomas (28/1)missed the cut last week at The Open after posting 82 in Round 1. Rebounding to post 71 in Round 2 wasn’t enough to play the weekend, but it does grab my attention. So does his commitment, as of now, to play Wyndham next weekend. He’s earned his price this week, and I’m curious to see what he can transfer from Round 2 to his first visit to the 3M Open. Posting 2-under for 36 holes wasn’t bad; it just wasn’t good enough to make the cut. MC.
Lucas Glover (35/1)took last week off after racking out three consecutive top-10 paydays. The veteran has a top-10 result on his ledger here, T7 in 2019, but hasn’t broken 72 in his last two visits. I’ll ride a hot, experienced, rested veteran in breezy conditions. Beat JT by a shot and that wasn’t good enough for 36 more holes! MC.
Patrick Rodgers (50/1)was knocked out in a playoff last week by Akshay Bhatia. Looking for his first TOUR win, Rodgers lost for the second time in extra holes in his career. His fifth top-10 of the season pushed him comfortably inside the top 40 (No. 38). The focus this week can be on the trophy.
Adam Hadwin, Mark Hubbard, Andrew Putnam, and Aaron Rai deserve a look as well.Posted 9-under par with all four rounds 70 or better. That’s only good enough for T37 at this event.
Longer Shots
Use ’em wherever you see fit!
Chesson Hadley (+12500): Top 10 last week at Barracuda suggests he’s found something. T27.
MJ Daffue (+16000): Five straight, all T38 or better. T43
SY Noh (+30000): Cashed in nine of his last 10. 69th. Nice. 10 of last 11.
Local Sleepers
Tom Hoge (75/1): The North Dakota native ran T4 here last year and smokes it on approach. He won the Minnesota Amateur twice as a kid.T20.
Erik van Rooyen (175/1): He played his collegiate golf at the University of Minnesota and will be paired with his caddy for the first two rounds. That’s right, his bagman was a Monday Qualifier! MC.
Troy Merritt (200/1): As a kid, he moved to Minnesota and played high school golf outside the Twin Cities. On his last two visits to the Midwest, he’s cashed T17 in Detroit and T17 at the John Deere Classic in Illinois. MC.
OAD – 2023 Spotter’s Game
Already Burned
Sungjae Im – Maui
Tom Kim – Sony
Tom Hoge – AMEX
Viktor Hovland – Pebble
Xander Schauffele – WMPO
Max Homa – Riviera
Shane Lowry – Honda
Tyrrell Hatton – API
Akshay Bhatia – PRO
Jason Day – THE PLAYERS
Justin Rose – Valspar
Cam Percy – Corales
Scottie Scheffler – WGC MP
Rickie Fowler – Valero
Jordan Spieth – Masters
Collin Morikawa – RBC Heritage
Billy Horschel – Zurich
Nicolai Hojgaard – Mexico
Rory McIlroy – WFC
Adam Scott – ATTBN
Brooks Koepka – PGA Championship
Chris Kirk – Colonial
Patrick Cantlay – Memorial
Matt Fitzpatrick – RBC CO
Jon Rahm – US Open
Harris English – Travelers
Davis Riley – RMC
Adam Schenk – JDC
Tommy Fleetwood – Scottish Open
Cameron Smith – The Open
Cameron Young – 3M Open
This Week – Wyndham Championship
Denny McCarthy
Just missed: Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Eric Cole
Last Week – 3M Open
Cameron Young – MC
Just missed: Justin Thomas, Sepp Straka, Hideki Matsuyama, Emiliano Grillo
Glass Houses 