Valspar Championship Preview

March 20, 2024March 20, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Terrifying!

The Snake Pit is ready to make its mark on this year's tournament. 🐍 #Copperhead #SnakePit #Copperhead #InnisbrookLife pic.twitter.com/bNFnvxjRlL
— Innisbrook Resort (@Innisbrook) March 20, 2024

Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort & Spa

Copperhead Course

Palm Harbor, Florida

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Quick Links:

Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks

Bet365: Top of the Board

Xander Schauffele (15/2):Making birdies, holing putts, and racking up top-10 finishes, the Californian is right on schedule. Despite adding swing changes, he’s been in the fight just about every time he’s teed it up this season. Making his second start in Palm Harbor, the only question lingering this week is whether he has enough gas in the tank for four more rounds at the top of the leaderboard.

Sam Burns (12/1): The safest selection on the board, the two-time winner extended his run of top-10 paydays to three straight years with solo sixth last year. Flashing 65 in Round 3 at TPC Sawgrass shows me he’s ready for another big week at Valspar.

Justin Thomas (14/1): Twice this year, he was at the top of my team sheet. Twice, he missed the cut in both events. One of the course horses this week, only Burns has a better scoring average. Adding to a streak of T13 or better over the last three seasons should be about right.

Jordan Spieth (18/1): The 2015 champ also missed the weekend at THE PLAYERS Championship and should be rested and ready. Returning to the event in 2023 for the first time since missing the cut in 2018, the Texan played in the final group and cashed T3 for his third top-10 payday in six tries.

Brian Harman (20/1): Turning the corner after his victory at Royal Liverpool last summer, he’s constantly on my radar. Posting 19-under over the final 54 holes last week, the Georgia native missed a playoff by a shot. Asking him to grind tee-to-green again this week won’t bother him.

Sungjae Im (25/1): After opening the season with T5 at The Sentry, the Korean star has struggled to keep up the pace. Returning to Palm Harbor for the first time since T29 in 2021, his best finish was T4 in 2019.

Tony Finau (25/1): Smashing it tee-to-green, it’s fascinating to remember he only has one top-10 payday this season. Skipping the Signature Event at Bay Hill, he returned to action with T45 at TPC Sawgrass. I’m not sure what’s going on here, so I’ll pass.

Cameron Young (28/1): Making his tournament debut, the big hitter is still looking for his first TOUR victory. The layout makes sense for the Wake Forest grad. Putting isn’t difficult, but fantastic ball striking will go a long way. This event has not required years of experience to figure out. Interesting outsider.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Nick Taylor (35/1): The Canadian has shown zero signs of letting up since his victory at TPC Scottsdale last month. Steady throughout the bag, he cashed T12 at Bay Hill and T26 last week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (45/1): Missing two cuts this season on 2-under and 1-under, respectively, the South African has posted five T28 or better finishes in eight tries. Cashing T13 last week, he also picked up T24 at a difficult Riviera Country Club.

Victor Perez (90/1): The Frenchman ran T3 in Puerto Rico before taking last week off. Not qualifying for THE PLAYERS Championship, the alternate did not get it, but he also did not burn any emotion or calories watching on television. Cashing T45 on debut last season, nothing will be new this time.

Sam Ryder (90/1): Posting 27 birdies last week, the Florida native set the THE PLAYERS Championship record. Making his sixth start, he will look to chase down last year’s T19 result. Cashing T21 and T16 in the last two events in the Sunshine State, he should be ready for another top payday.

Matt NeSmith (110/1): Setting the course record and cashing T3 in 2022, the South Carolina native missed out last year. Another top-25 finish this season will make it three-from-three at Innisbrook.

Brice Garnett (250/1): The winner two weeks ago in Puerto Rico cashed for the second consecutive week with T35 at TPC Sawgrass. All eight of his rounds are par or better. Lovely hot streak.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort & Spa
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,340.
Par:	71 (36-35).
Greens:	Poa Trivialis; 5,300 square feet.
Stimpmeter:	12 feet.
Rough:	Overseeded Rye at almost four inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	74/8/9
Architect(s):	Larry Packard (1971; 2015).
Defending Champion (event):	Taylor Moore (-10).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Sam Burns (2022, 2021).
Course Record (latest):	61; Matt NeSmith (Round 2, 2022).
72 Hole Tournament Record (March):	267; Sam Burns (2022, 2021).
72 Hole Tournament Record	266; Vijay Singh (2004).
Fact of the Week:	The last six winners have won in five attempts or less.
Fact of the Week II:	The Copperhead Course has played UNDER PAR across the field just four times since 2007.

Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort & Spa

The PGA TOUR season does not allow many breaths to be taken from January through August. The Palm Harbor “resort” layout is in name only. Like its cousin at PGA National, the Copperhead Course will not provide relief, even after THE PLAYERS Championship.

The fourth and final stop in the Sunshine State, the Valspar Championship stretches to 7,340 yards and plays to Par-71. The classic design, originally laid out by Larry Packard in 1971 and renovated in 2016, ranks annually among the best courses on TOUR by the rank and file.

Featuring five Par-3 holes and four Par-5 holes, the Copperhead Course also features the “Snake Pit”. Beginning at Hole No. 15 and ending at Hole No. 17, the three-hole stretch is one of the most difficult to navigate on TOUR.

Packard’s challenge features oak tree-lined fairways, elevation changes, and perched greens. Unlike TPC Sawgrass, the Copperhead Course sits right in front of the field of 156 players.

If the challenge last week was finding the fairways, Innisbrook features fewer acres of landing area off the tee than TPC Sawgrass. The classic layout requires getting it close in regulation, but scrambling and putting provide a chance to survive.

The pure Poa Trivialis greens allow players to lag it close or hole out but will not run at speeds seen at major championships. Getting up and down will save shots this week.

Scoring isn’t the focus this week. In 16 events since 2007, nine times the event has ranked in the top 10 most difficult on TOUR.

The main challenge this week is getting it close from the sprinkler line or the overseeded ryegrass. The four Par-5 holes would suggest scoring chances. They’re not easy, either. Surviving the “Snake Pit” stretch and any weather arriving will provide a solid foundation to contend.

Valspar Championship

The event made its debut in the fall of 2000. Since 2007, March has hosted every event except the 2021 edition (May).

One of the rare instances on TOUR, the Copperhead Course, even with a renovation following the 2015 edition, has played to Par-71 and 7,340 yards since 2012.

The field of 156 players includes 16 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Highlighted by Taylor Moore, seven previous winners are entered.

The last eight champions needed five or fewer attempts to win for the first time.

Gary Woodland, the 2011 champion, is the only winner since the move to March to win on debut.

The only event played outside of March was the 2021 edition. Won by Sam Burns on 17-under, the event returned to March 2022 and was won by… Sam Burns on 17-under.

The last five events have produced only three champions. Sam Burns and Paul Casey (not entered) won in back-to-back seasons before Moore’s victory last year.

Moore became the third first-time winner from the last four champions to lift the trophy.

The course record, last set by Matt NeSmith with 61 in Round 2 in 2022, was posted first by Padraig Harrington in 2012.

The field will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

On the line is a purse of $8.4 million, with the winner taking home $1.512 million, collecting 500 FedExCup points, and an invitation to the Masters in three weeks.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix Open	Nick Taylor
The Genesis Invitational	Hideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Jake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant Classic	Austin Eckroat
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Scottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)

Recent Winners – Valspar Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Taylor Moore (-10)	Became the third first-time winner from the last four champions.
2022	Sam Burns (-17)	Successfully defended his championship defeating Davis Riley in a playoff.
2021	Sam Burns (-17)	Won for the first time on TOUR defeating Keegan Bradley by three shots in a May event (COVID).
2020	Cancelled
2019	Paul Casey (-8)	Successfully defended his title by posting the third, single digit winning total in six seasons.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125
WM Phoenix Open	Matt Fitzpatrick	156,200
The Genesis Invitational	Max Homa	329,000
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau	145,125
Cognizant Classic	Russell Henley	32,850
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Scottie Scheffler	4,000,000
THE PLAYERS Championship	Will Zalatoris	0

Total Winnings:		5,753,192

His game has more fun stuff to it, so reach out @A340Spotter on X/Twitter or A340Spotter@comcast.net for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – THE PLAYERS Championship

MY CHOICE: Will Zalatoris – MC

From the penthouse to the shithouse in five days. Big shoutout to Zalatoris for not even giving the weekend a sniff. It’s MUCH EASIER (I have plenty of reps) to see the train coming down the tracks instead of tripping and falling on No. 17 Friday afternoon.

Whatever.

Any momentum from the Scheffler pick was completely thrown away. Hell, it is only the biggest goddam purse of the season and I took home exactly ZERO from it.

Let’s see how my other choices would have done!

Other to Consider:

Hideki Matsuyama – Healthy, confident, and playing well. The Genesis Invitational winner and Masters champion won’t be bothered with all the happenings going on. It was him or Zalatoris. T6 and I got this entirely wrong. $875k wrong.

Jusitn Thomas – I’m saving him for my Old Kentucky Home in May. You gotta do you. Hell, he’s good enough to win both. MC. I backed him in other places to win. Disastrous.

Brian Harman – Tough laydown, but I’ll find other uses for him. TOUGH LAYDOWN???? $1.891 million tough!

Scottie Scheffler – I included him for those of you considering using him. Winning the week before this event has happened like three times and Tiger Woods and Ray Floyd are the two of the names. I’m glad I’m not butting heads with the history the Texan faces this week. Can he? Of course. If he does, it’s an all-time result. WINNER. And it was an all-time result. All you needed to hit was surviving a pinched nerve, a five-shot deficit, and a record-tying 64 on Sunday. Remind me again if you get “screwed” down the road so I can laugh out loud.

Longshots

Tom Hoge – T54 after 75-75 weekend.

Sahith Theegala – T9, oh hey, another top 10 that I didn’t select.

Harris English – T19.

Garrick Higgo – WD (wrist injury after Round 1).

This Week – Valspar Championship

MY CHOICE: Sam Burns

Read Horses for Courses.

Other to Consider:

Brian Harman – Odd track record here, but the way he’s played in the last two big boy events, I can’t see the angle to fade him.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout – Each week appears to be more comfortable. Cashing T24 at Riviera and T13 at TPC Sawgrass is my proof.

Justin Thomas – Coming off a missed cut, he should be raring to go. His talent suggests using him for a bigger purse. He can also get hot and stay hot. My Old Kentucky home is in two months.

Longshots

Adam Schenk

Adam Hadwin

Adam PacMan Jones

Adam West

Adam Viniateri

Taylor Montgomery

THE PLAYERS Championship Preview

March 13, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Nifty No. 50!

Let’s have a day. #THEPLAYERS pic.twitter.com/xbcfg3MxP7
— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERS) March 13, 2024

I was there on business in October, things were just a bit different:

THE PLAYERS Championship

THE PLAYERS Stadium Course

TPC Sawgrass

Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

Head to Golfbet for all our content each week.

Quick Links:

Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks

Bet365: Top of the Board

Entering the week as World No. 1 and FedExCup No. 1, Scottie Scheffler (11/2) has already made history. His next chapter, becoming the first player to defend the title successfully, would not surprise many. Hitting it great, as usual, last week, his putter showed up on Sunday. Leading the field in SG: Putting in Round 4, the Texan blew away the field by five shots at a blustery Bay Hill. Not many win back-to-back weeks against fields of this magnitude. Not many have the game Scheffler has. Investors do not receive any premium to overcome these hurdles.

Rory McIlroy (12/1): As the season rolls on, I’m buying in more and more than the Masters is the ultimate goal. Playing Captial One’s The Match and participating in the Seminole Pro-Member, I’m not surprised he wasn’t dialed in last week at Bay Hill. I am surprised he hasn’t cracked the top 10 in four events in the U.S. this season.

The 2021 winner, Justin Thomas (18/1), will have to break the trend of the last four champions ranking in the OWGR top 10. Cashing T12 or better in eight of his last nine starts worldwide, I don’t have to rely on a massive change in form this week. He’s a proven commodity in Florida and on tough, ball-striking courses. Add him.

Xander Schauffele (22/1) flashed his best on debut in 2018. Sharing second miles behind Simpson, he made his second cut from five tries last year (T19). There’s no questioning the depth of his bag and the big-time results he’s posted in large events. The only winners from California this century are Tiger Woods, Rickie Fowler, and Phil Mickelson.

Like Scheffler, Viktor Hovland (22/1) has not needed many reps to draw attention to his play at this quirky set-up. After missing the cut on his first visit, he rebounded with T3 and T9 in the last two seasons. Admittedly struggling to put all the pieces together in 2024, his best finish of the new season is T19. There are always exceptions to rules, but I find it unrealistic to put it all together or “find it” on a layout like this one.

Patrick Cantlay (22/1) has played three weekends from six visits to Ponte Vedra Beach. Cashing T19 last year, he ended a streak of three consecutive missed cuts in March. Like most in the top 10, his full bag allows him to contend weekly. Like most in the top 10, his record here is less than inspiring.

Max Homa (22/1) is the Californian I will turn my attention to again this week after banging a top-10 winner last week at Bay Hill. After missing at the WM Phoenix Open, he didn’t fire at Riviera (T16) but added to his recent run of solid play at Bay Hill with T8. Riding that momentum up the coast, the Californian will look to build on T6 and T13 the last two seasons at TPC Sawgrass.

Will Zalatoris (25/1) is on a three-event bender, and I’m here for it to continue. Dropping him in here a week early, he led late on Saturday at Bay Hill before dropping to T4 after Sunday. He led the field in Fairways, was second in Scrambling, and posted his third consecutive T13 or better across three difficult courses. All aboard again.

Lighting up the stat board this season, Jordan Spieth (25/1) ranks fourth in SG: Total. The three-time major champion wouldn’t mind being handed the trophy from his buddy from Dallas, but he’ll need to translate his recent form to a course that has not fit his eye on most previous visits. Missing the cut in five of his last seven before T19 last year, the former Longhorn has been “Sawgrassed” too many times for his liking. Relying on creativity and feel, he’ll need to dial in his tee-to-green game this week.

Making his fourth start, Collin Morikawa (28/1) should have the clues to unlocking Dye’s puzzle. A superior approach player, the two-time major winner enters the week missing two of his last four cuts. Slick Poa Trivialis greens will determine even more concentration with his flat stick. Posting just two rounds in the 60s from his previous 10 loops, he will need to double that total this week to contend and win.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Hideki Matsuyama (30/1): When he gets going, he can get going. The winner at The Riviera Country Club was lingering in the top 5 last week at Bay Hill before fading to T12. With top 10 visits in two of his last three to TPC Sawgrass, he’s lined up and ready to go. So am I.

Wyndham Clark (35/1): I’ve ignored him too long. His last 10 months have been fantastic. The winner at Pebble Beach ran second last week at Bay Hill, extending his run of big finishes in big events.

Jason Day (45/1): Ending a run of top-10 paydays at Bay Hill with T36, he should have knocked off the rust after missing two weeks. Adding another top 10 to his ledger this season and at THE PLAYERS would not surprise me.

Tom Hoge (66/1): When course history intersects with current form, I’m in. The course record holder rolls into town with T28 or better in six of his last seven, including two top-10 paydays. Never missing the cut in five tries, it’s clear this layout fits his eye.

Adam Hadwin (90/1): I can’t overlook T4 at Riviera plus, he’s hit the top 10 two more times in his last eight starts. Cheekily, he’s run off T13-T9-T29 in the last seasons. Quiet, please.

Chris Kirk (100/1): The Bermuda ball-striking test for The Sentry winner should fit nicely. Absolutely no pressure.

Erik van Rooyen (110/1): Cashing T25 or better from six of eight starts, the South African has won and collected T2 in his last nine on TOUR. Time to take the next step.

Doug Ghim (110/1): T16 or better in his last four starts on TOUR, he has blown incredibly hot and cold at TPC Sawgrass. I hope 80-74 MC from last year scares a few off.

Taylor Pendrith (200/1): Each year, a player from left field runs to the top of the leaderboard. I’ll take my chances on the Canadian who secured T13 on debut in 2022 and T69 last year. Top 40.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	THE PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,275
Par:	72 (36-36).
Greens:	Poa Trivialis; 5,500 square feet.
Stimpmeter:	13 feet.
Rough:	Overseeded Rye at three and a half inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	95/18/18
Architect(s):	Pete Dye (1980); Steve Wenzloff (2016).
Defending Champion (event):	Scottie Scheffler (-17).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	None.
Course Record:	62; Tom Hoge (Round 3, 2023).
72 Hole Tournament Record (March):	271; Scottie Scheffler (2023).
72 Hole Tournament Record	264; Greg Norman (1994). Made one bogey.
Fact of the Week:	No champion has successfully defended.
Fact of the Week II:	Only two players have won on debut. Hal Sutton (1983 – second event at the course) and Craig Perks (2002).

THE PLAYERS Stadium Course

Following the fourth Signature Event of the season, THE PLAYERS Championship celebrates its 50^th edition this week at the THE PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass.

The third stop of four on the Florida Swing brings Pete Dye’s genius to the forefront for the 42^nd consecutive edition. Stretching to 7,275 yards, the Par-72 matches the scorecard from the 2023 tournament.

Testing the full range of clubs, shots, and mental toughness, the course, while not ranking as overly difficult is far from overly easy. Since returning to March for the 2019 edition the average winning score is 15-under-par, but only 15 players have posted 10-under or better in the last three editions.

Providing multiple dog legs, tree canopies, waste bunkers, and water penalty areas, there’s no way to fake it tee to green. Narrow fairways and cramped putting surfaces require concentration on every shot. The last four winners have ranked in the top six in SG: Approach.

Water is plentiful and in play on almost every field shot. Over 90 bunkers, including waste sand areas, plus three and a half inches of overseeded ryegrass force the pros to pick their poison. Getting it close requires a sturdy decision-making process when faced with the mounds, swales, and closely mown areas around the greens.

Hole locations on humps, bumps, or lying in bowls will test short-game acumen and the flat stick. Running at 13 feet on the Stimpmeter, the overseeded Poa Trivialis will provide a slick putting surface.

Pushing shot shapes to the edge will result in fantastic opportunities to score, or the most direct path to pitching out. Or finding the drop zone. Bailout areas don’t exist for power players this week.

Taking advantage of the short Par-4 holes and the three short Par-5 holes (out of four) will help the scoring and the mood of the world’s best players.

THE PLAYERS Championship

The event was established in 1974 and moved to TPC Sawgrass and the Pete Dye Stadium Course in 1982.

The field of 144 players includes 47 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. No amateurs or club pros are eligible.

Only four qualified players are not entered this week (Tiger Woods, Will Gordon, David Lingmerth, and Danny Willett).

Scottie Scheffler won on his third attempt last year. Only 2017 champion Si Woo Kim, the youngest winner in history, needed fewer attempts. Craig Perks, the 2002 champion, was only the second winner on debut after Hal Sutton in 1983, the second year of the event at TPC Sawgrass.

After 2006, the event was moved from March to May. Following the 2018 edition, won easily by Webb Simpson, the event returned to its March roots. The 2020 edition was abandoned after Round 1 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and was declared null and void.

The four March winners have all ranked inside the top 10 of the OWGR at the time of victory.

Over the previous 41 editions at TPC Sawgrass, only five players have won the event twice. None are playing this week.

Fred Funk, 48 in the 2005 edition, became the oldest winner.

Led by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, nine previous champions are in the field. Justin Thomas (2021), Rory McIlroy (2019), Webb Simpson (2018), Si Woo Kim (2017), Jason Day (2016), Rickie Fowler (2015), Matt Kuchar (2012), and Adam Scott (2004).

All four March winners were 29 or younger at the time of victory.

Scottie Scheffler posted 17-under last year, the lowest winning total since returning to March.

Tom Hoge set the course record in Round 3 last year. Posting 62, the North Dakotan highlighted the easiest scoring round (any round) in the history of the event (69.573).

The field of 144 includes players representing 22 countries and 23 debutants. The field will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

On the line is a purse of $25 million, with the winner taking home $4.5 million. THE PLAYERS Championship is the first of five events this season that will award 750 FedExCup points to the winner.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix Open	Nick Taylor
The Genesis Invitational	Hideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Jake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant Classic	Austin Eckroat
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Scottie Scheffler

Recent Winners – THE PLAYERS Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Scottie Scheffler (-17)	Blasted the field by five, the largest winning margin since 2006 (Stephen Ames – 6 shots).
2022	Cam Smith (-13)	Closing with 66, the Australian finished Round 3 and won the event on Monday.
2021	Justin Thomas (-14)	Fired 64-68 to set the closing 36-hole record.
2020	Cancelled
2019	Rory McIlroy (-16)	Held off Jim Furyk by a shot in the return to March.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125
WM Phoenix Open	Matt Fitzpatrick	156,200
The Genesis Invitational	Max Homa	329,000
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau	145,125
Cognizant Classic	Russell Henley	32,850
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Scottie Scheffler	4,000,000

Total Winnings:		5,753,192

His game has more fun stuff to it. Reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – Arnold Palmer Invitational

Sometimes, shit just happens like we all expect it to happen. Except for the people who didn’t pick the winner.

Celebrate ALL VICTORIES, kids. Life is hard. Fantasy golf is harder.

Other than THE WINNER, which is obviously the most important in THIS game, I hardly put a foot right. Disastrous performance, except for having the THE WINNER.

MY CHOICE: Scottie Scheffler – WON

I wouldn’t be too disappointed if you were not on board last week. There is this week, four majors, and four more Signature Events. Lotta time there.

Other to Consider:

Rory McIlroy: I posted the stat on Twitter yesterday where he has had the most top-10 paydays since 2016. He’s six from nine here. His form puts me off. Another week, another finish outside the top 20. Bizarre. T21.

Viktor Hovland: Another who is not firing on all cylinders, the Norwegian led after 36 holes in 2022 and played in the final group last year. And another who didn’t fire. T36 after 75-75 weekend.

Ludvig Aberg: Phased by absolutely nothing. T24 on debut last year as an amateur. T25 this season.

Tommy Fleetwood: The tougher, the better, and his three top-10 paydays provide the evidence. Annnnnnnnnnd a MC. I’m the Fleetwood barometer. If I think he’s the right play, go the other way! Sad!

Jason Day: Enters on back-to-back top-10s and has won here. T36.

Sam Burns: Tough to ignore four straight in the top 10 on TOUR. Smooth 68 to open. And 78 to close. T30.

Longshots

Chris Kirk – T44

Corey Conners – T18

Justin Rose – MC

This Week – THE PLAYERS Championship

MY CHOICE: Will Zalatoris

His game is in excellent shape (T4, T2, and T13 last three) and he’s never missed in three March events. Pounding Fairways and GIR is his strength and that’s the foundation this week. I’ll worry about the putter like I did with Scheffler when I need to worry about the putter.

Other to Consider:

Hideki Matsuyama – Healthy, confident, and playing well. The Genesis Invitational winner and Masters champion won’t be bothered with all the happenings going on. It was him or Zalatoris.

Jusitn Thomas – I’m saving him for my Old Kentucky Home in May. You gotta do you. Hell, he’s good enough to win both.

Brian Harman – Tough laydown, but I’ll find other uses for him.

Longshots

Tom Hoge

Sahith Theegala

Harris English

Garrick Higgo

Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview

March 6, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

The statue is ready for photos! 📸

Two more days until @PGATOUR action!#APInv pic.twitter.com/U6CXvsyHCh
— apinv (@APinv) March 5, 2024

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Orlando, Florida

Head to Golfbet for all our content each week.

Quick Links:

Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks

Bet365: Top of the Board

Scottie Scheffler (13/2): I’m not one to usually support favorites, but I’m making an exception this week. Cashing T4 in defense of his 2022 victory, he knows elite putting is not required this week. With 19 top-three-paydays to his name since the 2021-2022 season, place him where you feel most comfortable. He’s the first name on my ticket.

Rory McIlroy (9/1): In the last 10 days, he’s played Captial One’s The Match, four rounds at the Cognizant Classic (T21), and the Seminole Pro-Member. He wanted reps before Augusta. He’s getting reps before Augusta! A true course horse, the 2018 winner is a constant in the top 10 outside Orlando. The finish line is the Masters, not Bay Hill.

Sitting as third choice, Viktor Hovland (14/1) is still searching for his first top 10 of 2024. The Norwegian has been lurking the last two seasons at the top of the leaderboard outside Orlando. Playing in the final group last year, he shot 76 to drift to T10. The 36-hole leader in 2022 closed 75-74 for T2.

Xander Schauffele (16/1) has yet to find the key to success at Bay Hill. The West Coast wizard started hot, but he’s never cracked the code in Florida. Supporters this week will hope the third time is the first time inside the top 20.

Patrick Cantlay (16/1) adapted quickly on debut last season. Posting three rounds below par, he finished T4 after his first four loops. Cashing T4 at Riviera and T11 at Pebble Beach in his last two outings, taking that form to Florida will be necessary again.

Granted a sponsor’s exemption as an amateur as a college senior last spring, Ludvig Aberg (18/1) is now one of the favorites in a Signature Event in his first full season on TOUR. Posting nothing worse than 73, the amateur cashed T24 against one of the best fields in golf. Cashing his last three on TOUR inside the top 20, he will enjoy another ball-striking challenge this week.

Sharing fourth in his first two visits at Bay Hill, Jordan Spieth (20/1) makes his third visit in the last four years. Leading on the back nine on Sunday last year, the Texan ran out of gas at the finish line. Cashing T6 or better in his last three visits on Bermuda, his last victory was on the same surface at Harbour Town in 2022.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Max Homa (25/1): Wins at Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, and Riviera suggest 7,466 yards isn’t out of the question. Making his fifth start, he’s cashed T24 or better in the previous four. Invest.

Will Zalatoris (30/1): Making his fourth appearance, the former Wake Forest Deamon Deacon roars into Bay Hill after finishing second at The Genesis Challenge. The return to familiar grass should bring familiar results.

Jason Day (33/1): The red-hot Aussie bumps into my purview due to his previous history at Bay Hill. The 2016 champion, and former resident of Lake Nona ran T10 last year and rolls into town after back-to-back top-10 paydays on the West Coast Swing.

Adam Scott (50/1): Every lineup/card/ticket needs a safety dance. The Australian, a sponsor’s exemption this week, will not want to embarrass those who shoved him into the field. All aboard! Posting T20 or better in his last three on TOUR, he’s not a novelty act.

Corey Conners (55/1): Putting is not an afterthought this week, but I’ll side with the guys who will hit the most greens. Keeping it out of the water and bunkers will produce more scoring chances.

Keegan Bradley (55/1): Cashing in 11 straight at Arnold’s place, his last three here are T10-T11-T10.

Justin Rose (110/1): Formerly a resident, the Englishman has experienced plenty of reps around Bay Hill. Comfortably flying beneath the radar, let’s hope his allergies don’t get the best of him!

Taylor Moore (200/1): Defending in three weeks at Innisbrook, this is another track that requires concentration for each shot. Cashing in his last nine on TOUR, I’ll embrace this number for either a Top 20 or Top 40.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,466
Par:	72 (36-36).
Greens:	TifEagle Bermuda; 7,500 square feet.
Stimpmeter:	12 feet.
Rough:	Overseeded Rye at three inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	85/8/9
Architect(s):	Dick Wilson & Joe Lee; Arnold Palmer.
Defending Champion (event):	Kurt Kitayama (-9).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	None.
Course Record:	64; Rory McIlroy and Keegan Bradley since the change to TifEagle in 2016.
72 Hole Tournament Record	270; Rory McIlroy 2018 after the change to TifEagle.
Fact of the Week:	Second of four weeks in Florida and TifEagle.
Fact of the Week II:	Fourth of eight Signature Events for 2024.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

The halfway point of the Florida Swing is also the halfway point of eight Signature Events on the 2024 calendar.

Known as one of the most difficult tests on TOUR, the Par-72, stretching 7,466 yards, nothing comes easy this week.

Ranking in the top 10 most difficult tracks used on TOUR in six of the last seven seasons, Bay Hill has not played under par since the 2016 edition, the first with brand-new TifEagle Bermuda greens. The 2020 tournament played two shots over par; the most difficult venue used during that season.

Fairways and greens are challenging targets to acquire. Arnold Palmer’s design has ranked in the top five during the last five seasons in SG: Tee to Green. Errant tee shots and approaches could find three inches of overseeded (rye) Bermuda, 84 bunkers, or water penalty areas (nine holes).

Putting the TifEagle Bermuda greens, the fourth largest on TOUR at 7,500 square feet on average, challenge matching line and speed at 12 feet on the Stimpmeter.

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Debuting as host in 1979, Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club has anchored the late winter/early spring schedule on TOUR.

2023 champion Kurt Kitayama joins 1990 winner Robert Gamez as the only player to win on debut.

After changing the greens from Bentgrass to TifEagle Bermuda after the 2015 edition, international players won the next five editions.

Attaining elevated status in 2021, American players have won the last three at Bay Hill.

Winning as a 21-year-old in 1990, Robert Gamez is the youngest champion by three years.

The last four winners ranged from 26 to 30 years old. Only two of the last eight have been older than 30.

The tournament scoring record, produced in perfect scoring conditions by Rory McIlroy during the 2018 edition, is 270 (-18).

McIlroy and Keegan Bradley have posted 64, the lowest single-round total since 2016.

The field of 69, including 44 of the Official World Golf Ranking Top 50, will be cut to the top 50 and ties, plus any player within 10 shots of the lead, after 36 holes.

On the line is a purse of $20 million, with the winner taking home $4 million plus 700 FedExCup points.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix Open	Nick Taylor
The Genesis Invitational	Hideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Jake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant Classic	Austin Eckroat

Recent Winners – Arnold Palmer Invitational

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Kurt Kitayama (-9)	Overcame a triple bogey in the final round to hold off McIlroy, English, Spieth, and Scheffler.
2022	Scottie Scheffler (-5)	Trailing by eight after 36 holes, he won in his second appearance.
2021	Bryson DeChambeau (-11)	Held off Lee Westwood by a shot.
2020	Tyrrell Hatton (-4)	Brutal conditions. Only four players broke par.
2019	Francesco Molinari (-12)	Closed with 64 to beat Matt Fitzpatrick by two.
2018	Rory McIlroy (-18)	Closed 67-64 in perfect conditions to win by three.
2017	Marc Leishman (-11)	Won by a shot.
2016	Jason Day (-17)	First winner after the change to TifEagle greens. Soft conditions.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125
WM Phoenix Open	Matt Fitzpatrick	156,200
The Genesis Invitational	Max Homa	329,000
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau	145,125
Cognizant Classic	Russell Henley	32,850

Total Winnings:		1,753,192

Recapping Last Week – Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

Another week, another choice nobody had on the radar.

We slog on.

MY CHOICE: Russell Henley – T41

Super 65 on Saturday set up a chance to move into the top five and pick up some real cash. Instead, he shot 72 and joined about a dozen players who couldn’t break par in ideal scoring conditions and dropped 30 spots.

Other to Consider:

Stephan Jaeger: Knock. Knock. Knock. T14 here last year. MC.

Eric Cole: Sure, he plays just about every week, but he didn’t last week! The Florida native can’t be outside the top three choices. Never take another week off. MC.

Shane Lowry: Never missed in six tries. T5-2^nd last two years. T4. Brutal ride on Monday. Roller coaster town.

Sepp Straka: Streak is four straight. T5-WIN last two years. MC.

Keith Mitchell: If you don’t catch him this week, don’t worry, his big, bad driver might work even better at the big, bad Bay Hill layout. T9 but didn’t qualify for Bay Hill.

Rory McIlroy: You gotta do you. The angle this year is to play more to ramp it up and peak at the Masters. The Ulsterman gets many chances to get it right. We get ONE. T21.

Longshots

Daniel Berger: Making just his third start from injury, the local will have plenty of folks in his corner again if he’s in the mix on Sunday. Missed the cut.

Byeong Hun An: Not sure he’s “graduated” to the OAD level, but this field makes more sense than others. T21.

Sam Ryder: Native with two top-10 paydays in his last two visits here. Not for the faint of heart. T21.

Luke List: JT got him in a playoff back in 2018, but he’s found his way since. MC.

This Week – Arnold Palmer Invitational

Kurt Kitayama showed steel nerves last year down the stretch and kickstarted the last 12 months of “Wow, that guy won?”. No offense to any of these great players, but how many of you had Clark at the U.S. Open? How about Harman at The Open? What about Glover in Memphis? Kirk at Sentry? Clark again at Pebble Beach.

Sigh.

MY CHOICE: Scottie Scheffler

I don’t like Pinehurst for him, not with those greens. Nobody defends at THE PLAYERS. Masters field will be intense. I’m going in this week. He knows this place well enough and he’s been in Top-10 mode recently.

Let’s go.

Others to Consider:

Rory McIlroy: I posted the stat on Twitter yesterday that showed the most top-10 paydays since 2016. He’s six from nine here. His form puts me off.

Viktor Hovland: Another who is not firing on all cylinders, the Norwegian led after 36 holes in 2022 and played in the final group last year.

Ludvig Aberg: Phased by absolutely nothing. T24 on debut last year as an amateur.

Tommy Fleetwood: The tougher, the better, and his three top-10 paydays provide the evidence.

Jason Day: Enters on back-to-back top-10s and has won here.

Sam Burns: Tough to ignore four straight in the top 10 on TOUR.

Longshots

Chris Kirk – Corey Conners – Justin Rose

Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

February 28, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Goooood morning, fans. 😄 pic.twitter.com/MQIRM3jQeZ
— Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches (@the_cognizant) February 28, 2024

Spring Break begins with four consecutive weeks in The Sunshine State. Formerly The Honda Classic, the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches takes up the reins for this week and after.

Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

PGA National Resort

Champion Course

Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

Head to Golfbet for all our content each week.

Quick Links:

Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks

Bet365: Top of the Board

Sitting at the top of the board for his North American home game is Rory McIlroy (8/1). Fresh off his win at Captial One’s The Match on Monday, he returns to the Champion Course for the first time since T59 in 2018. The 2012 winner was eliminated in a four-man-playoff in 2014, his last top 10 at the event. I’m not into favorites outside of Signature Events and major championships, so I’ll patiently wait until next week.

Cameron Young (22/1) will note that three of the last five winners have won for the first time on TOUR. Playing in his 57th TOUR start, the big-hitting youngster will look to continue his solid form from the West Coast. Cashing T8 at TPC Scottsdale and T16 at Riviera suggests he’s ready for another demanding course.

I’m starting my card with Russell Henley (25/1) on top. Bermuda and ball-striking is a fantastic combination this week. The Georgia native cashed T3 and T8 in his previous two visits to add to his 2014 victory. He was the first of four Georgia Bulldogs to win in the last 10 events. I’m leaning on him to keep the tradition alive.

Floridian Eric Cole (25/1) would also like to add his name to the list of first-time victors. Setting the tournament scoring record with Chris Kirk (40/1) last year on 14-under, the 2023 rookie finished second on debut after falling in a playoff. In seven events this season, he’s hit the top 14 in four of them, including two on Bermuda in Hawaii. Load it up.

Winning for the first time won’t be on the agenda for 21-year-old Tom Kim (28/1). Making his tournament debut, he will look to join his countryman and 2020 winner Sungjae Im as the youngest winner. A winner three times on TOUR, the Korean will need a better debut than his T45 at The Sentry to open 2024.

Matt Fitzpatrick (28/1) won on Champion Bermuda/TifEagle Bermuda last season at Harbour Town for his second victory on TOUR. One to keep an eye on next week at Bay Hill, the Englishman makes his first appearance since 2017 (T68). Grinding doesn’t bother him; neither will a challenge off the tee or on/around the greens.

Byeong Hun An (28/1) paved his return to the PGA TOUR via his win at the LECOM Classic on the KFT in 2022. Winning on Bermuda on the West Coast of Florida, the Orlando native has enjoyed his previous visits to PGA National. Making the cut in four of his five starts, the Korean has hit the top five twice, including T4 in 2020, his best of the lot.

Joining Tom Kim as a former winner at the Wyndham Championship, North Carolina native J.T. Poston (33/1) enjoys a challenge on Bermuda. Cashing T5 at The Sentry followed by a solo sixth at Sony, both on Bermuda, I have no problem overlooking his lack of success at PGA National. His full bag suggests fitting him in if the choices above do not move the meter.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Stephan Jaeger (35/1): I left him alone LAST week because I thought this difficult test would fit his eye even better.

Daniel Berger (35/1): A home game for the life-long resident should evoke fantastic memories of three top-four paydays, including his last two visits.

Denny McCarthy (55/1): When presented with the choice of region vs form, I’m going to rely on Bermuda fans from youth. It’s not an absolute science, but more of a tiebreaker.

Doug Ghim (66/1): Back for more! I’m riding the heat of T8-T12-T13 from his last three on TOUR.

Akshat Bhatia (80/1): If it’s time to put the ball in play off the tee and into the greens, I’m leaning on the noted wind player. I’ll take my chances with the long putter on the perfect greens.

Gary Woodland (125/1): Never missing the cut in nine starts, I’m latching on.

Greyson Sigg (150/1): Another Georgia Bulldog with a top finish? This dawg only made five bogeys last week.

Sam Ryder (200/1): OK, I’ll bite. Opening with 69-63 in 2021, he claimed T8. In the 2022 edition, his third consecutive cut made at the event, he pocketed another top-10 finish with T9. Florida natives will be the long shots of choice this week and the next three.

Matt NeSmith (250/1): Making his fourth visit, he’s cashed T38 or better in his first three. Giddy up.

Bud Cauley (350/1): Stretching a bit, but if you can find him for Top 40, I’d take a shot. Gambling, right?

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	PGA National Resort – Champion Course
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,147
Par:	71 (35-36).
Greens:	TifEagle Bermuda; 7,000 square feet.
Stimpmeter:	12 feet.
Rough:	Celebration Bermuda at 2.25 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	65/15/15
Architect(s):	Tom and George Fazio (1980); Jack Nicklaus (2000 and beyond).
Defending Champion (event):	Chris Kirk (-14).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	No multiple winners from the 17 previous events.
Course Record:	61; Matt Jones (not entered) last to do it, 2021.
72 Hole Tournament Record	266; Chris Kirk and Eric Cole, 2023.
Fact of the Week:	First of four weeks of The Florida Swing.
Fact of the Week II:	First of four weeks on TifEagle Bermuda Greens and Celebration Bermuda.

Returning to the USA, the Florida Swing begins at Jack Nicklaus’ PGA National Champion Course.

Formerly known as The Honda Open, the Champion Course remains the host for the 18th consecutive season. After playing Par-70 to 7,125 for the last six years, the new sponsorship will play Par-71 (35-36) over 7,147 yards.

Previously playing 505 yards and playing to a Par-4, Hole No. 10 has added 25 yards, shifted left eight yards, and will now play as a Par-5. Players will no longer have to wait 14 holes until No. 18 to get another Par-5 opportunity.

Don’t let the word “resort” fool you. For the last 10 years, the track has ranked in the top seven most difficult seven times, including five of the previous six seasons.

The coastal breezes, bunkers, and water being in play on 15 of the 18 holes provide a physical and mental challenge. Rating annually as a top-five three-hole-stretch on TOUR, the holes Nos 15 through 17, known as “The Bear Trap”, will give the professionals plenty of food for thought coming home. In better news, the cut of the rough this season will barely exceed two inches, and the fairways have expanded by an acre.

The return to Bermudagrass will be a welcome sight for those who grew up and live in this part of the world. Celebration Bermuda is on the menu until 7,000 square feet (on average) of TifEagle Bermuda welcomes the players on the putting surfaces. Running at a manageable 12 feet on the Stimpmeter, the greens will not be cut as short as last year due to poor winter conditions.

Ranking in the top five on TOUR in balls in the water since 2003, I’ll remind you PGA National did not host its first TOUR event until 2007.

Cognizant Classic at the Palm Beaches (Event)

The ninth event of the PGA TOUR season returns to a familiar part of Florida. Hosting a TOUR event since 1972, the Palm Beaches have only missed one event (1976) in 43 years.

Ranking in the top five for balls in the water on TOUR since 2003, PGA National did not start hosting the event until 2007.

No player has won at the Champion Course more than once.

No winner has lifted the trophy in consecutive seasons.

Winning the 2020 edition, Sungjae Im became the youngest champion at 21.

Padraig Harrington, also in the field this week, has won the event twice. The PGA TOUR Champions star won the 2005 event at Mirasol and the 2015 event, becoming the oldest winner at 43, in a playoff over Daniel Berger.

2013 champion Michael Thompson (not entered) is the only winner who does not have multiple TOUR victories.

The last five winners have produced three first-time champions.

None of the 17 past champions won on debut.

There have been zero wire-to-wire winners at PGA National.

Defending champion Chris Kirk ousted first-timer Eric Cole in a playoff last year. Both players set the tournament scoring record on 14-under par. The course record, 61, was last accomplished in the 2021 edition by Matt Jones.

The field of 144, including 19 of the Official World Golf Ranking Top 50, will have chances to gain eligibility into the Arnold Palmer Invitational. After the 72 holes at PGA National, the Aon Next 10 and the Aon Swing 5 will determine who advances to Bay Hill.

On the line is a purse of $9 million, with the winner taking home $1.62 million plus 500 FedExCup points.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix Open	Nick Taylor
The Genesis Invitational	Hideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Jake Knapp (rookie)

Recent Winners – Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Chris Kirik (-14)*	Defeated rookie Eric Cole in a playoff. Both set the tournament scoring record on 14-under. Played his college golf at Georgia.
2022	Sepp Straka (-10)	Won for the first time on TOUR. Played his college golf at Georgia.
2021	Matt Jones (-12)	Won by five in tough conditions.
2020	Sungjae Im (-6)	Won for the first time on TOUR; Youngest event winner at 21.
2019	Keith Mitchell (-9)	Won for the first time on TOUR holding off Rickie Fowler and Brooks Koepka. Played his college golf at Georgia.
2018	Jusitn Thomas (-8)	Knocked out Luke List in a playoff.
2017	Rickie Fowler (-12)	Cruised to a four-shot win over Gary Woodland.
2016	Adam Scott (-9)	Won despite a TRIPLE in the final round.
2015	Padraig Harrington (-6)	Taught young Daniel Berger a lesson in a playoff to become the oldest winner.
2014	Russell Henley (-8)	Started the Georgia run winning a four-man playoff.

Angles

The eighth event of the 2024 PGA TOUR season will be the first of two in Mexico this year. El Cardonal in Los Cabos will return in the fall to host for the second time.

The combination of a Greg Norman track and Mexico was in play at Mayakoba on the Yucatan Peninsula from 2007 through 2022.

Paspalum is a common playing surface in the resorts of the Caribbean and Mexico. PGA TOUR events played recently on Paspalum include El Cardonal, Puerto Rico Open, Corales Punta Cana, and Mayakoba. Korn Ferry Tour players have experienced this surface in two events in the Bahamas.

A field of 132, down from previous years due to the early season start and reduced February daylight, will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

Defending champion Tony Finau highlights a field of just four players in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking. At No. 24, he is the highest-ranked player teeing it up this week.

Set during his victory last year, Tony Finau owns the course record on 24-under. The course record of 61, set by Jon Rahm (not entered), was posted in Round 3 of 2023. The cut in the first two editions was 2-under par.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125
WM Phoenix Open	Matt Fitzpatrick	156,200
The Genesis Invitational	Max Homa	329,000
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau	145,125

Total Winnings:		1,720,342

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – Mexico Open at Vidanta

Favorites need not apply. Jake Knapp at 40/1 becomes the shortest winner of the season and that includes Hideki Matsuyama.

MY CHOICE: Tony Finau – T13

Defending titles isn’t as easy as Scottie Scheffler made it look last year. Finau didn’t play poorly, and to be fair, he had the best finish from the favorites outside Stephan Jaeger (T3). Only HFC Patrick Rodgers (T6) made any other sense.

Other to Consider:

Thorbjorn Olesen: Won in the Middle East in his last outing. Former Ryder Cupper plays all four corners of the world, and his game follows. T46 after 71-71 on the weekend.

Cameron Champ: Yep, that’s where we’re at this week. Hitting the top 10 twice in the first two years matches nicely. T24 after not being able to put consecutive rounds under par together.

Emiliano Grillo: Broke his drought at Colonial last spring. Safest pick on the board. Heading into Sunday on 10-under, posting 73 didn’t help anyone.

Thomas Detry: Too many top 25 paydays in thin fields and on Paspalum to ignore. MC. I’m not really sure what happened on Thursday (78), but he returned Friday with 69, nice.

Longshots

Brandon Wu: Testing the limits of Horses for Courses! T13, not bad!

Patrick Rodgers: Same! T6, even better!

Mackenzie Hughes: Flashed for two rounds last week before fading on the weekend. MC as the momentum he had at Riviera didn’t make it through customs.

Charley Hoffman: Previous winner at Mayakoba, should feel right at home. MC.

This Week – Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

A better field this week, but a reminder that NEXT WEEK is the big bucks at Bay Hill.

Captain Kirk slowed the streak of first-time winners last year, barely.

With too many moving parts, I’m going to rely on an old favorite.

MY CHOICE: Russell Henley

The only reason he didn’t play the last two seasons was fixture congestion.

Had to be.

He was T3 and T8 in his previous two visits and won in 2014.

Streaking with four straight T24 or better, it’s an easy choice for me on Bermuda this week.

Other to Consider:

Stephan Jaeger: Knock. Knock. Knock. T14 here last year.

Eric Cole: Sure, he plays just about every week, but he didn’t last week! The Florida native can’t be outside the top three choices.

Shane Lowry: Never missed in six tries. T5-2^nd last two years.

Sepp Straka: Streak is four straight. T5-WIN last two years.

Keith Mitchell: If you don’t catch him this week, don’t worry, his big, bad driver might work even better at the big, bad Bay Hill layout.

Rory McIlroy: You gotta do you. The angle this year is to play more to ramp it up and peak at the Masters. The Ulsterman gets many chances to get it right. We get ONE.

Longshots

Daniel Berger: Making just his third start from injury the local will have plenty of folks in his corner again if he’s in the mix on Sunday.

Byeong Hun An: Not sure he’s “graduated” to OAD level, but this field makes more sense than others.

Sam Ryder: Native with two top-10 paydays in his last two visits here. Not for the timid, or those in the lead!

Luke List: JT got him in a playoff back in 2018 but he’s found his way since.

Mexico Open at Vidanta Preview

February 21, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Vidanta Vallarta (@PGATOUR on x)

Mexico Open at Vidanta

Greg Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta

Vallarta, Mexico

Head to Golfbet for all our content each week.

Quick Links:

Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks

Top of the Board (odds via Bet365)

Tony Finau (8/1) crushed a better field than this one last year. Posting 24-under to set the tournament scoring record, the highest-ranked player in the field is now 40-under aggregate in two visits. Only Jon Rahm (not entered) has beaten him here.

Nicolai Hojgaard (16/1) is one of many at the top of the board this week who ran well at Torrey Pines last month. Finishing second to Mathieu Pavon (not entered), the young Dane showed he wasn’t bothered by a big track hugging the Pacific Ocean. Cashed T33 here last year but was second to Matt Wallace (80/1) on Paspalum at Punta Cana last spring.

Speaking of Torrey Pines, Stephan Jaeger (22/1) led after 36 and 54 holes before cashing T3. Signing for 73-72 on the weekend, the German is still looking for his first win or second-place finish on TOUR. Making his third start at Vidanta Vallarta, he will look to add to his T18-T15 paydays.

Emiliano Grillo (25/1) has cashed in his first six events of 2024. Highlighted by T7 at Waialae, the Argentine has picked up five top-10 paydays worldwide since winning at Colonial last May. Oh, and he was T20 at Torrey Pines.

Flashing with T9 at The American Express and T17 at TPC Scottsdale, not many drive it better than Keith Mitchell (25/1) regardless of the field. Playing Mayakoba five times, he never finished better than T56. Careful.

Taylor Pendrith (25/1) played five events in the FedExCup Fall and registered three T15 or better paydays, including T3 and T8. In two starts in 2024, he’s cashed T9 (Torrey Pines!!) and T10 with MC sandwiched between. Big power off the tee is the foundation.

After missing the cut in his first try of 2024, Thomas Detry (25/1) rattled off T20 (Torrey Pines!!), T4, and T28 before not qualifying for last week. The Belgian cashed T8 and T15 in back-to-back years at Punta Cana and hit the top 25 in his final two visits to Mayakoba.

Winning four weeks ago in the UAE in his last outing, Thorbjorn Olesen (30/1) continues his run of fantastic play. Cashing 26^th or better in his last eight starts, his annual hot starts to the beginning of the calendar year continue.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

The last time the TOUR stopped in Mexico and played on Paspalum, Erik van Rooyen (33/1) posted three rounds of 64-66-63 to close at El Cardonal and win by two shots. Missing the cut in Phoenix was his first weekend off in 12 starts.

Doug Ghim (45/1) rolls in after cashing T13 (Torrey Pines!!) and T12 in Phoenix. Keep an eye on this ball-striker.

Maverick McNealy (50/1) popped with a season-best T6 at WM Phoenix open after a disappointing T39 in his boyhood backyard at Pebble Beach.

Cameron Champ (55/1) joins Finau, Brandon Wu (40/1), and Patrick Rodgers (33/1) as the only players to hit the top 10 in the first two editions.

Andrew Novak (110/1) grinds his way through big, windy, courses and isn’t bothered by Paspalum.

A winner at Mayakoba, Patton Kizzire (125/1) joins Finau and Charley Hoffman (70/1) as the only players this week to win on a Norman design in Mexico.

With wins at the Puerto Rico Open, Mazatlán Open, and El Bosque Mexico Championship, Martin Trainer (200/1) deserves a punt. Cashing T11 on debut here in 2022, he returns after T15 in Los Cabos last fall. Paspalum specialist and long shot.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Greg Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,456.
Par:	71 (35-36).
Greens:	Platinum Paspalum; 7,000 square feet.
Stimpmeter:	11 feet.
Rough:	Platinum Paspalum at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	106/14/12
Architect(s):	Greg Norman (2015).
Defending Champion (event):	Tony Finau (-24).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	N/A
Course Record:	61; Jon Rahm (Round 3, 2023).
72 Hole Tournament Record	260; Tony Finau (2023).
Fact of the Week:	First-year for the event to be held in February.
Fact of the Week II:	Paspalum for the first time since El Cardonal last fall.

The 64^th edition of the Mexico Open tees off at Greg Norman’s Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta.

The Australian’s coastal design, located just off the Pacific Ocean, opened in 2015. Playing 7,456 yards to Par 71, the track features tee-to-green Platinum Paspalum.

Previously contested in the last week of April and the first week of May, the 2024 edition takes up a new position on the calendar in late February.

To mitigate scoring, the rough has increased to 2.5 inches, up from 1.5 inches from the first two editions.

The resort course provides massive landing areas off the fairway to account for everyday players and the ocean breezes off the Pacific Ocean.

The Paspalum putting surfaces, 7,000 square feet on average, will be prepped to run at just 11 feet, down from 12 feet last year.

Errant tee balls and approaches will have to steer clear of over 100 bunkers and water hazards found on 12 of the 18 holes.

One of the biggest ballparks on TOUR, Vidanta Vallarta will have five Par-3 holes and four Par-5 holes.

Notes:

Field of 132.
The cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
The OWGR is represented by four of the top 50.
$8.1 million – $1.458 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix Open	Nick Taylor
The Genesis Invitational	Hideki Matsuyama

Recent Winners – Mexico Open at Vidanta

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Tony Finau (-24)	Rolled to a three-shot victory over Rahm; Wu was third two back.
2022	Jon Rahm (-17)	Held off Tony Finau and Brandon Wu by one shot.

Angles

The eighth event of the 2024 PGA TOUR season will be the first of two in Mexico this year. El Cardonal in Los Cabos will return in the fall to host for the second time.

The combination of a Greg Norman track and Mexico was in play at Mayakoba on the Yucatan Peninsula from 2007 through 2022.

A field of 132, down from previous years due to the early season start and reduced February daylight, will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

Defending champion Tony Finau highlights a field of just four players in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking. At No. 24, he is the highest-ranked player teeing it up this week.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125
WM Phoenix Open	Matt Fitzpatrick	156,200
The Genesis Invitational	Max Homa	329,000

Total Winnings:		1,575,217

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – The Genesis Invitational

West Coast players have feasted here over the years. Only Joaquin Niemann, who is ineligible this week, sticks out like a sore thumb from the list of recent winners. All he did was set the 36-hole and 54-hole scoring record in perfect conditions.

The third of eight Signature Events requires a show of nerves. Either you’re picking an ultra-premium player or you’re hoping to continue to stretch of winners outside 60-1.

With only 40-odd events to choose from, there is absolutely no need to go fishing this week. Save that for next week in Mexico when the field will lighten significantly.

MY CHOICE: Max Homa – T16

It’s his major championship. It’s in his backyard. He’s won it and finished second in the last three editions. The streak of top-10 paydays is four.

The Cooler strikes again! Battling from the word go, the Californian put it together in Round 2 with 65 but couldn’t catch up. A bogey at the last cost 116k but who’s counting?

At least I put Matsuyama in the DFS column!

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: I will not talk you out of him this week. This is not a putting contest and that will help him between the ears from the word go. Damn, 51 guys made the cut. Scheffler was 51^st SG: Putting. Cashed T10.

Collin Morikawa: I’d probably run him out before Scheffler. I like the grass match. Barely hit 50% of GIR. Weird. T19.

Adam Scott: I don’t think I need to dip to 50-1 this week. Might pop in a field with less lumber down the road. T19 on a sponsor’s exemption.

Rory McIlroy: I’m good. See him in Florida or when the weather gets warmer. T24 after opening with 74. Good swerve.

Justin Thomas: T12 or better in every event over the last four months. I’m still holding out for Valhalla. Condolences to those who didn’t. MC.

Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele: If you’re not sold on Cantlay’s form, save him for Memorial. Schauffele is an auto play at any major, especially a U.S. Open. If your game uses The TOUR Championship, that works as well. T4 BOTH! Cantlay was the more disappointing of the two. Sunday scaries continued but it was reported he was sick most of the weekend. Ok.

Tiger Woods: Come on. Just no. He’s +320 to hit the top 20. Go there. Win there. Maybe. Played 24 holes and WD due to illness.

Longshots

Sahith Theegala – T37

Cameron Young – T16

Will Zalatoris – T2

Adam Schenk – MC

Emiliano Grillo – T44

This Week – Mexico Open at Vidanta

The fields in this event during the first two editions have been less than comprehensive.

The argument that the two best players finished first-T2 or T2-first the last two years is difficult to argue.

The winners on TOUR this year suggest that favorite Tony Finau will struggle to defend his title and some 50/1 or worse longshot will steal the trophy on Sunday.

Whatever.

MY CHOICE: Tony Finau

With light wind in the forecast, it’s all systems go. Relax, smoke drivers, wedge it close, and continue to avoid bogeys just off the Pacific Ocean.

Those of you who do not believe a shootout is the best place to run him out, save the champion at Memorial Park in Houston for later in March. Defending his second title of the year, the tee to green requirements in Texas will play more to his set-up, but I would suggest a deeper field.

MUCH deeper.

Nobody said this was easy.

Other to Consider:

Thorbjorn Olesen: Won in the Middle East in his last outing. Former Ryder Cupper plays all four corners of the world, and his game follows.

Cameron Champ: Yep, that’s where we’re at this week. Hitting the top 10 twice in the first two years matches nicely.

Emiliano Grillo: Broke his drought at Colonial last spring. Safest pick on the board.

Thomas Detry: Too many top 25 paydays in thin fields and on Paspalum to ignore.

Longshots

Brandon Wu: Testing the limits of Horses for Courses!

Patrick Rodgers: Same!

Mackenzie Hughes: Flashed for two rounds last week before fading on the weekend.

Charley Hoffman: Previous winner at Mayakoba, should feel right at home.

The Genesis Invitational

February 14, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Tiger Woods hosts the third of eight Signature Events on the 2024 calendar.

The first tee at Riviera 💯 pic.twitter.com/rzQruEmomP
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 14, 2024

The Genesis Invitational

The Riviera Country Club

Pacific Palisades, California

Head to Golfbet for all our content each week:

Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks – Bet365.com Preview

Bet365: Top of the Board

Sitting No. 1 in the OWGR, Scottie Scheffler (7/1) will look to add his name to the winners at The Genesis Invitational who have also won the Masters. Cashing T12 and T7 the last two seasons suggests he’s closing in on joining that club. I don’t need to remind you about his numbers in the Strokes-Gained department from last year or last week. The only question that follows the Texan is WHEN he will return to the winner’s circle.

Making his eighth start in Tinsel Town, Rory McIlroy (10/1) attempts to return to the form he used to start 2024 (WIN-T2). Pebble Beach wasn’t the soft landing he anticipated, and T66 wasn’t the payday he expected to take home. Rested after skipping WM Phoenix Open last week, the Ulsterman will look to add to his bounty of T29 or better in six of seven starts, including three top-10 paydays in Southern California.

A slow start from Norwegian superstar Viktor Hovland (14/1) has turned heads for the wrong reasons. Unable to breach the top 20 in Maui and not firing during the Pro-Am at Pebble Beach (T58), he was a late withdraw before the WM Phoenix Open last week. Cashing a pair of top-five paydays from three starts in Los Angeles, the Santa Monica Canyon might provide the tonic needed to swing his game into gear. The last two winners were in their 20s, but none were from a decade before. I’ll wait.

Xander Schauffele (16/1) leads the California contingent this week, even though he’s only painted the top 10 once from six starts. Running in the red to start the season, the San Diego native ran into the wind and weather of Pebble Beach (T54) and withdrew just before the WM Phoenix Open. Cashing four of his last six T15 or better, I’d lean into the top 20 (-170) as insurance.

Justin Thomas (18/1) embraced the tough conditions at Pebble Beach (T6) and was not deterred by the weather delays at TPC Scottsdale (T12). Since missing the cut at the 3M Open last summer, the two-time major champion has produced T12 or better paydays in seven consecutive starts on TOUR. The “new” swing changes have been replaced with the old, familiar action, and the results have followed.

Long Beach native Patrick Cantlay (18/1) pushed onto the podium last year with solo third. In the early days of 2024, he struggled to put all four rounds together, especially on Sunday. Sitting T11 after three rounds at Pebble Beach, he did not have a chance to wash away the difficult fourth-round mojo that had been following him to start the year. Cashing T17 or better in five of his last six here, hitching to a top 20 or top 10 might be the prudent play.

If there’s a track that will play Max Homa (18/1) into winning shape, I would point to this week. The 2021 winner, runner-up last year, has peeled off four straight paydays inside the top 10 and has not missed a weekend in five years. Cashing T13 in his defense at Torrey Pines, the Burbank native, born 20 miles up the street, didn’t fire at Pebble Beach (T66) and missed the cut last week in Scottsdale. A home game is just what the doctor ordered! Remember, four of his six wins on TOUR have come in his home state.

Ludvig Aberg (20/1) continues to produce results on premium courses against premium fields. The elements of Pebble Beach, the wind, weather, and Pro-Am, could not slow him down as he cashed solo second. Playing almost 7,800 yards, Torrey Pines kept him at T9. Experience is a must-have for most, but the Swedish star has been writing his own rules since last June.

Collin Morikawa (20/1) is another local who will be making noise this week. Finishing T2 in 2022 and cashing T6 in 2023, the La Canada-Flintridge native enjoys most ball-striking challenges. Sitting second behind Scheffler in SG: Approach the Green and fourth in SG: Tee to Green, he embraces tough layouts. A disappointing missed cut at Torrey Pines might distract investors. Not me.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Adam Scott (30/1): The 2020 champ is the all-time leading money winner at the event and has produced top 20 or better results worldwide over the last three months. Lovely convergence.

Cameron Young (40/1): Backed up a solo third from the Middle East with his second top-10 in three starts with T8 last week in Phoenix. Tying for second on debut in 2022, he posted 62 in Round 2. Last year, he returned for T20.

Will Zalatoris (50/1): Riding into Hollywood on a sponsor’s exemption, just like Scott, he will look forward to repaying the faith shown in him by his host. Running fourth here last year, he closed with 64, his best round in four appearances.

Emiliano Grillo (110/1): Playing for the sixth time in seven weeks, the Argentine has produced T22 or better in his last four starts. The winner at Colonial, the other Hogan’s Alley, last spring can work it tee to green.

Tom Hoge (125/1): Making his seventh consecutive start to begin 2024, I’ll back the free roll. Hitting 28 of 36 GIR on the weekend in Phoenix, he cashed T17 for the second time in three starts on TOUR. The other payday was T6 at Pebble Beach.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	The Riviera Country Club
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,322
Par:	71 (35-36).
Greens:	Poa annua; 7,500 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	12 feet and up.
Rough:	Kikuyu grass at two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	58/0/0
Architect(s):	George C. Thomas (1926).
Defending Champion (event):	Jon Rahm -17
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Adam Scott (2020, 2005).
Course Record:	61; Ted Tryba (1999).
72 Hole Tournament Record	264; Lanny Wadkins (1985).
Fact of the Week:	Before the last two editions, all of the winners from 2008 through 2021 were 30 or older.
Fact of the Week II:	Adam Scott was the last player to win on debut. His 36-hole victory in 2005 was unofficial.

One of the classic American golf courses, The Riviera Country Club, designed by George C. Thomas, opened for business in 1927.

Hosting the former Los Angeles Open for the 62^nd time, the Par-71 layout has stretched 7,322 yards since the 2016 edition.

The West Coast swing ends with another week on Poa annua greens. Running at 12.5 feet on the Stimpmeter, the large putting surfaces, averaging 7,500 square feet, rank in the top five largest on TOUR.

There’s no water on the course that runs through the Santa Monica Canyon. Kikuyu grass cut at two inches will provide nest-y, uneven lies off the fairways and around the greens. The bunkers, 58 of them, are penal. The Riviera Country Club ranks as one of the toughest tracks on the calendar when it comes to getting up and down out of the sand or, getting it close.

Taming Riviera requires a full array of shots, including a cooperative flat stick. Grinding out pars on the Par-4 holes, attacking the scorable Par-5 chances, and surviving the all-encompassing Par-3 holes will produce a worthy champion.

“Hogan’s Alley” has hosted the U.S. Open, won by Ben Hogan in 1948, plus two PGA Championships. The historical record includes a U.S. Senior Open and the U.S. Amateur, plus the 2026 U.S. Women’s Open and 2028 Summer Olympics yet to come.

Notes:

Field of 70.
The cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead plays the weekend.
The OWGR is represented by 41 of the top 50.
$20 million – $4 million – 700 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix Open	Nick Taylor
The Genesis Invitational

Recent Winners – The Genesis Invitational

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Jon Rahm (-17)	Held off 2021 winner Max Homa by two shots.
2022	Joaquin Niemann (-19)	Became just the fourth wire-to-wire winner in event history.
2021	Max Homa (-12)	Defeated Tony Finau in a playoff.
2020	Adam Scott (-11)	Held off Matt Kuchar and two others by two shots.
2019	J.B. Holmes (-14)	Justin Thomas was 18-under with 17 holes to go. He finished 13-under and in second place.
2018	Bubba Watson (-12)	Won for the third time holding off Finau by two shots.

Angles

Since 2007, every winner was 30 years or older until the 2022 and 2023 editions, when the winners were 23 and 28.

Masters champions have won this event 11 times since the turn of the century.

The last eight winners needed four or more starts before raising the trophy.

The last player to win on debut was Adam Scott in 2005. The victory was unofficial as the event, canceled due to weather, was only 36 holes.

The trio of Par-5 holes are some of the friendliest on TOUR.

The Par-4 holes are not.

Gaining strokes off the tee and into the greens will go a long way to determining the winner.

Bunkers this week are penal. Getting it close is rare. Getting it up and down is a struggle.

The fifth consecutive week on Poa annua greens will require concentration from outside the leather again. Look for the speed on the green to be the quickest yet on TOUR this season.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee on Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125
WM Phoenix Open	Matt Fitzpatrick	156,200

Total Winnings:		1,246,217

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – WM Phoenix Open

Nick Taylor or Charley Hoffman was going to be a triple-digit long-shot winner.

Again.

Whatever.

MY CHOICE: Matt Fitzpatrick – T15 but 10 shots off the lead.

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: If I am going to use him once and only once, thems the rules, I’m going down in an event with BIG BUCKS on the table. Wonderful attempt for a three-peat. T3 is great, except when you put it next to what T3 this week pays.

Justin Thomas: Current heat mixes nicely with course form. At this point, I can’t talk myself out of him at Valhalla. You do you. T12 after a quiet Saturday round of 70.

Hideki Matsuyama: Legit course horse. T22 adds another top-25 payday to his career total here.

Max Homa: No, thanks. Next week. MC

Wyndham Clark: Following up a round of 60 in victory seems a bit of a stretch. Tough ask. T41.

Byeong Hun An: The putter isn’t the answer, but he won’t miss many Fairways and GIR. Crowd got under his skin. T66.

Longshots

Keith Mitchell – T17

Corey Conners – T28

Vincent Norrman – MC

Victor Perez – MC

This Week – The Genesis Invitational

The third of eight Signature Events requires a show of nerves. Either you’re picking an ultra-premium player or you’re hoping to continue to stretch of winners outside 60-1.

With only 40-odd events to choose from, there is absolutely no need to go fishing this week. Save that for next week in Mexico when the field will lighten significantly.

MY CHOICE: Max Homa

It’s his major championship. It’s in his backyard. He’s won it and finished second in the last three editions. The streak of top-10 paydays is four.

No more overthinking.

Some would suggest I don’t think at all!

Who’s arguing?!?!?

With four of his six wins in his home state of California, I expect a bounce back after missing the cut last week. He’s fresh and ready to go.

Happy Valentine’s Day, you filthy animals.

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: I will not talk you out of him this week. This is not a putting contest and that will help him between the ears from the word go.

Collin Morikawa: I’d probably run him out before Scheffler. I like the grass match.

Adam Scott: I don’t think I need to dip to 50-1 this week. Might pop in a field with less lumber down the road.

Rory McIlroy: I’m good. See him in Florida or when the weather gets warmer.

Justin Thomas: T12 or better in every event over the last four months. I’m still holding out for Valhalla.

Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele: If you’re not sold on Cantlay’s form, save him for Memorial. Schauffele is an auto-play at any major, especially a U.S. Open. If your game uses The TOUR Championship, that works as well.

Tiger Woods: Come on. Just no. He’s +320 to hit the top 20. Go there. Win there. Maybe.

Longshots

Sahith Theegala

Cameron Young

Will Zalatoris

Adam Schenk

Emiliano Grillo

WM Phoenix Open Preview

February 7, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

WM Phoenix Open

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale

Scottsdale, Arizona

Head to Golfbet for all our content each week:

Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stas Suggest – Expert Picks – Bet365.com Preview

For my picks this week, click on the Bet365.com Preview above.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,261.
Par:	71 (35-36).
Greens:	Poa annua; 7,100 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	12 feet.
Rough:	Overseeded Rye and Poa annua around two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	67/3/6
Architect(s):	Tom Weiskopf & Jay Morrish (1986); Tom Weiskopf (2014 renovation).
Defending Champion (event):	Scottie Scheffler (-19)
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Scheffler (2023, 2022), Hideki Matsuyama (2017, 2016) and JB Holmes (2006, 2004).
Course Record:	61; Jordan Spieth (Round 3, 2021); Wyndham Clark (Round 1, 2020).
72 Hole Tournament Record (post-2014 renovation)	19-under; Scottie Scheffler (2023).
Fact of the Week:	Steve Stricker was the last player to win an event three consecutive years (John Deere Classic 2009-2011).
Fact of the Week II:	Only three internationals have won since 2000.

Notes:

Field of 132.
THE CUT returns this week. The top 65 and ties advance to the final two rounds.
The OWGR is represented by 27 of the top 50.
$8.8 million – $1.584 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix Open

Recent Winners – WM Phoenix Open

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Scottie Scheffler (-19)	Tied the tournament scoring record defending his title. Won by two shots over Nick Taylor. Third place was five back.
2022	Scottie Scheffler (-16)	Defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff to win for the first time on TOUR.
2021	Brooks Koepka (-19)	Set the tournament scoring mark holding off KH Lee and Xander Schauffele by a shot.
2020	Webb Simpson (-17)	Defeated Tony Finau in a playoff.
2019	Rickie Fowler (-19)	Sat 20-under after 54 holes before eventually winning by two shots in cool, rainy, conditions.
2018	Gary Woodland (-18)	Defeated Chez Reavie in a playoff; Circled 26 birdies.
2017	Hideki Matsuyama (-17)	Successfully defended his title knocking out Simpson in a playoff.
2016	Hideki Matsuyama (-14)	Won in his third attempt defeating Fowler in a playoff.
2105	Brooks Koepka (-15)	Won on his debut and won for the first time on TOUR.

Angles

The People’s Open is the largest attended sporting event outside The Olympics.

Over 700,000 people will pack into TPC Scottsdale during the practice rounds and tournament play.

Players distracted by noise, crowds, or nightlife probably didn’t enter this week.

It’s the fourth consecutive week on Poa annua greens but the first in four weeks where only one course will be in play.

Desert golf usually means sunshine, light winds, and warm temperatures. Not this week. Take a look. Cold mornings and the lack of sunshine will make this a miserable slog. Thankfully, TPC Scottsdale drains nicely.

A wet golf course on Thursday will expand the fairways. Less roll equals more width and tighter angles can possibly be attacked. Will it matter if you can’t feel your hands???

The Par-71 has played 7,261 yards since the 2019 edition. Taking advantage of scoring conditions (read: not firm and fast greens) should resemble a dart board. The average winning score here in perfect conditions is around 17-under. Time to score again this week.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125

Total Winnings:		1,090,017

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The second of eight Signature Events, there is NO CUT this week. Toss in wind, rain, and amateurs, and it might be a week to stray from the biggest of names.

Or not.

My theory in this game is simple: You’re not missing out. If you don’t take Scheffler this week and he wins, it’s not one and done. He will play all of the majors, THE PLAYERS, most of the other six Signature Events and the first two rounds of the FedExCup Playoffs. He’s good enough to win again and possibly after that.

MY CHOICE: Jordan Spieth – T39

He embraces the format, can handle the weather, and has the results to back it up. If you’re saving him for the Masters, please re-read the above. I’m trying to catch him on the up on ANOTHER course he has figured out. I didn’t think he would fire at Kapalua, and I was wrong by miles (solo third). After back-to-back top six paydays, I’m going in.

Never in it from the jump, the Texan sat a mile off the lead when the tournament was, rightly, called after 54 holes. I took a chance. I didn’t hit.

Other to Consider:

Viktor Hovland: The 2018 U.S. Amateur winner here has plenty of reps at Pebble. He lives in Oklahoma where wind is just part of life. The only upside of choosing Spieth instead is saving Hovland for later. Cashing T58 and withdrawing from WM Phoenix Open this week wasn’t what I had in mind.

Rory McIlroy: To me, he makes absolutely no sense this week. Not with the events left on the schedule. Not with the tracks he’s crushed still to come. I’ll point out he’s on fire. Got it. Desert golf, with no wind and warm temperatures, is exactly the opposite of what he will face this week. Posted one round in the 60s for T66 out of 80 players.

Ludvig Aberg: There’s nothing left to be written about the Swedish star in the making. The next step for gamers is figuring out his sweet spot. If you’re on the fence this week about the weather/event/choice there are a ton of worse places to default to than this guy. Solo second.

Tommy Fleetwood: Can we get somebody to whisper in his ear that is U.S. Open week? Good job if you resisted! T31.

Jason Day: Because I had him last week. Closed with 63 for T6. Yep, THIS WEEK.

Longshots

Ben An – T31

Denny McCarthy – T26

Nick Taylor – T71

Seamus Power – T31

This Week – WM Phoenix Open

History suggests the BIG PARTY in the desert brings us a big champion (see the table above). Only Webb Simpson (not entered) has won this event BEFORE winning a major championship, but the point stands. TPC Scottsdale identifies big-time talent. The only champion on the list above who has not won a major, to the surprise of many, is Rickie Fowler.

The way 2024 has begun it is OBVIOUS the winner this week will be a Monday Qualifier or the last man into the field after a WD. All five winners have been just short of or above 100-1 to win this season. Wyndham Clark’s victory last week just added to that total as he was as long as 125-1 in places and 66-1 in others.

Whatever

MY CHOICE: Matt Fitzpatrick

It will be cold, and damp, and players will be either into this weather or mentally checked out. The Englishman should feel right at home.

Strong off the tee, this major winner isn’t going to lose any shots on or around the greens either. Making his third consecutive start (T29-T10), it’s obvious he’s not bothered by the raucous environment.

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: If I am going to use him once and only once, thems the rules, I’m going down in an event with BIG BUCKS on the table.

Justin Thomas: Current heat mixes nicely with course form. At this point, I can’t talk myself out of him at Valhalla. You do you.

Hideki Matsuyama: Legit course horse.

Max Homa: No, thanks. Next week.

Wyndham Clark: Following up a round of 60 in victory seems a bit of a stretch.

Byeong Hun An: The putter isn’t the answer, but he won’t miss many Fairways and GIR.

Longshots

Keith Mitchell

Corey Conners

Vincent Norrman

Victor Perez

AT&T Pebble Beach Preview

January 31, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Dialed in at my favorite place @attproam @ATT #ATTProAm #ATTAthlete pic.twitter.com/gE6m45iJ9G
— Jordan Spieth (@JordanSpieth) January 30, 2024

Continue reading →

Farmers Insurance Open 2024

January 23, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Farmers Insurance Open

Torrey Pines Golf Club

South Course (Host)

North Course

San Diego, CA

THE TOURNAMENT STARTS TOMORROW – READ THE PREVIEW MATERIAL HERE

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Xander Schauffele (+900): If Torrey equates to a U.S. Open “lite” not many play the U.S. Open better than the native San Diegan.

Patrick Cantlay (+1000): The 76 on Sunday last week should have put him back in the lab quickly on Monday morning. Weird that he’s playing this week considering his lack of reps here.

Collin Morikawa (+1100): Couldn’t hit it any better than last year (No. 1 Fairways and No. 2 GIR). It’s always the putter to get him over the hump. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t in the top 20.

Max Homa (+1100): A champion who has defended before at Fortinet, he’s the only favorite to do the business here. Super player. Every week. Any week.

Ludvig Aberg (+1800): If you pick him every week, you will be right again eventually. Too many trends working against him. You do you.

Sungjae Im (+2200): Doesn’t miss here (5-5) and the last two are in the top six. One of his two winds was a grinder at PGA National so he won’t mind tough conditions. Again.

Min Woo Lee (+2500): Like Aberg, there’s a learning curve here. The list of recent winners here, sans Rahm, needed five or more reps. Wonderful talent.

Tony Finau (+2500): I’d make a joke here about putting, but he should know every inch of these greens by now.

Jason Day (+2500): Yep. Let’s go. All of the shots, all of the experience, and all of the confidence. Day-Finau exacta.

Keegan Bradley (+2800): Loves the West Coast as well. Cashing six straight, half have paid in the top five, including solo second last year. Tough lay down.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	South Course
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,765
Par:	72 (36-36).
Greens:	Poa annua; 5,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	13 feet.
Rough:	Overseeded Rye on Kikuyu at four inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	82/1/1
Architect(s):	William P. Bell & William F. Bell (1957).
Defending Champion (event):	Max Homa (-15).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Jason Day (2018, 2015) and Brandt Snedeker (2016, 2012).
Course Record (last):	62; South Course – Tiger Woods (1999). 61; North Course – Brandt Snedeker (2007).
72 Hole Tournament Record (last)	266 (-22); Tiger Woods (1999).
Fact of the Week:	Since 1990, three players have made FIO their first win on TOUR.
Fact of the Week II:	Since 1990, two players have won on debut.

	North Course
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,258
Par:	72 (36-36).
Greens:	Tyee 007 Bentgrass; 6,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	12 feet.
Rough:	Overseeded Rye on Kikuyu at four inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	42/0/1
Architect(s):	William P. Bell & William F. Bell (1957). Tom Weiskopf (2017).
Course Record (last):	61; North Course – Brandt Snedeker (2007).
72 Hole Tournament Record (last)	266 (-22); Tiger Woods (1999).
Fact of the Week:	Only Woods and Mickelson have won this event more than twice. Neither are entered this week.
Fact of the Week II:	Four of the last five winners started on the NORTH Course.

Notes:

Field of 156.
18 holes on each course and then cut to the top 65 and ties.
South Course hosts Rounds 3 and 4.
The OWGR is represented by 20 of the top 50.
Top 65 and ties will make the cut and play the weekend after 54 holes (play each course once).
$9 million – $1.62 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.
Last chance to get into the Aon Swing 5 for Pebble Beach next week.

Current Aon Swing 5 (*entered this week)

Grayson Murray

Christiaan Bezuidenhout*

Justin Thomas

Kevin Yu*

Carl Yuan*

Next 5

Michael Kim*

Matthieu Pavon*

Keith Mitchell*

Ryo Hisatsune*

Taylor Pendrith*

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open
AT&T Pebble Beach

Recent Winners – Farmers Insurance Open

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Max Homa (-13)	Closed with 66, co-round of the day, to come from five shots. Won by two over Keegan Bradley.
2022	Luke List (-15)	Defeated Will Zalatoris on the first playoff hole to become the second player to break his maiden at this event since 1990.
2021	Patrick Reed (-14)	Ran away to win by five shots over Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele and others.
2020	Marc Leishman (-15)	Became the fourth consecutive international winner in his 12^th attempt.
2019	Justin Rose (-21)	Won by two shots in his 9^th attempt.
2018	Jason Day (-10)	Won a three-man playoff to win for the second time.
2017	Jon Rahm (-13)	Won on debut by three shots.
2016	Brandt Snedeker (-6)	Didn’t hit a shot on the Monday finish after incredible weather rocked the event.

Angles

Better score on the North! Playing three shots easier and 500 yards shorter, making up shots on those 18 holes is required.

The South Course is really hard annually. Check the scorecard. There are 10 Par-4 holes and eight stretch over 450 yards. Half of the Par-5 challenges are 600-yards-plus.

Rough! Wet, overseeded Kikuyugrass (with Rye) will not shorten the longest track on TOUR from 2023.

Poa annua greens prepped to run 13 feet will be more of a challenge than the two stops in Hawaii and the pro-am from last week.

Fairways are hard to hit (less than 55 percent). Greens are hard to hit (less than 66 percent). Getting it close from around the green is hard. Holing putts outside three feet is hard.

The profile of the winner this week will be a big-time player with a full bag. The South Course could be used for a U.S. Open tomorrow. The 7,765 yards will eventually expose flaws. It’s not surprising that the winners here have had multiple chances or generational talent.

Pick better golfers!

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Sepp Straka (+4000): The bigger the park, the better his chances. The Austrian thrives on approach and should be rewarded again this week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+6600): The new baby arrived late last year and he’s plowing along like a proud papa. Last time he was in California he ran T6 at Fortinet. The last time he was on Poa he won $1.512 million.

Patrick Rodgers (+7000): The Quail Hollow angle is real. Ask Max Homa. Now, I know Rodgers hasn’t WON at QHC…

Keith Mitchell (+7500): All you can get. Thrives in this part of the world and will at Pebble and Riviera.

Taylor Pendrith (+9000): Because I was on him LAST WEEK. That’s just how this goes sometimes.

Taylor Moore (+11000): Won a difficult Copperhead Course last year that mimics Torrey Pines. T29 or better in five of his last six, all cashed.

Peter Malnati (+35000): Three straight T25 or better; includes T10 2021.

Chandler Phillips (+50000): Welcome to the big leagues. Let’s see if he can make it three on the trot.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee on Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open

Total Winnings:		1,019,892

His game has more fun stuff to it. Reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – The American Express

MY CHOICE: Adam Hadwin – T6

Nobody is more comfortable on these three courses, and he has the scar tissues to prove it. The Canadian will look to make it eight from eight and add to his three finishes on the podium. In an event that’s almost impossible to handicap (see: Dunlap, Nick) AND NOW HAS AN AMATEUR CHAMPION added to its history, I’ll take the money and run.

Other to Consider:

Tom Kim: Tough laydown, especially after 66 to close at Kapalua to kick-start his 2024. His desert record is making me reconsider this pick until the first tee time on Thursday. Stay tuned. 2024 has been a damp fart for his investors. Missing the cut in a desert shootout was the last spot I thought I would fill on the bingo card this week.

Chris Kirk: T18-WIN in the last two weeks plus he closed 63-64 here last year for T3. Pulled a CANTLAY on Sunday and watched the entire field lap his 73. T47.

J.T. Poston: Copied, pasted. Baby is on the way! Go look at his results in the last six months. Absolutely flying. T11.

Justin Thomas: He’s not in any Signature Events until he qualifies. One leads to another. Saving him for the PGA Championship in his native state of Kentucky outside his birth city of Louisville is understood. T3. Look who’s in the Aon Swing 5! He’s not even in the field this week! Confident!

Patrick Cantlay: If you believe he is going to have a big 2024, I would not be surprised to see it start this week on these three tracks. Sat T10 entering Sunday on 19-under on a course where he holds the scoring record. Shot 76. Cashed T52. Golf. Bloody hell.

Longshots

Taylor Montgomery: When form meets course history…Beat six players.

Patton Kizzire: Probably not in THIS format. Probably everywhere else. The streak ended. There was no format for him this week.

This Week – Farmers Insurance Open

MY CHOICE: Jason Day

It was this week or next! You know this means he’ll win NEXT week, right? NO! THIS WEEK! Cashing T34 last week and T10 in Maui produced eight rounds of 69 or better. Now that the rust is off, time to go join Woods (8) and Mickelson (3) at the top of the food chain in La Jolla.

Other to Consider:

Tony Finau: Making his 10^th visit, he’s T24 or better in eight of nine. Over his last four, he’s hit the top 10 three times and MC once. For those of you playing safe or can’t decide, I’d start here. He will also defend next month in Mexico.

Max Homa: I’m going to save him for Riviera, but he’s defended once in California already at Fortinet (2021, 2022). The last player to successfully defend was Woods from 2005-2008 #FourPeat.

Keegan Bradley: Another proven player in big ballparks, he ran second to Homa last year, also closing with 66. Making his 13^th start, he will have a plan.

Sungjae Im: Looking to make it six-from-six, he will look to make it three straight in the top 10.

Longshots

Harris English

Patrick Rodgers

Taylor Moore

The American Express 2024 Preview

January 17, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Never leave home without it!

The American Express

The Stadium Course at PGA West (Host)

Nicklaus Tournament Course

La Quinta Country Club

La Quinta, CA

Weekly Readers:

Odds Outlook – click here

Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – click here

Expert Picks – click here

DFS Angles – click here

Bet365.com – click here

Golfbet articles from the entire crew – click here

Welcome to 2024 and the new season.

For those of you who are just arriving for the first time, here’s what’s going on:

Please read the stuff above for the total experience.

Information changes from Sunday to Wednesday morning. If there is anything new/exciting/pertinent, I’ll add it here.

This column is me. My thoughts, my humor, my fun, my opinions. I’m not here for grammar lessons, suggestions, or to charge you.

So shut up, keep up, and enjoy it.

If you have any questions, reach out.

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Scottie Scheffler (11/2): Go on, take the money, and run, goes the song. As Scheffler’s putter goes, his weekly paycheck increases. Nobody hits it better, but when 25-under or better is required, I’m not sure he has enough makes in the flat stick. Take the top 10 and carry on.

Patrick Cantlay (9/1): Don’t forget he used to dominate in the desert outside Las Vegas! The California desert hasn’t been as profitable, but the Californian has racked up three top-10 paydays, including solo second in 2021, in his last four starts. Owning the course record, 61, at the Stadium Course, he’s also produced 62 at La Quinta. He’s my first name on the team sheet this week.

Xander Schauffele (11/1): Returning for the first time since 2017, the Las Vegas resident closed with 62 at the Stadium Course last year to steal a spot on the podium at T3. The last time we saw him in the winner’s circle was in the summer of 2022 in Scotland before The Open Championship. Sitting in the top five in SG: Approach AND Putting, that’s an incredible streak without a win.

Sungjae Im (20/1): Setting the PGA TOUR record for most birdies in a tournament (34) and cashing T5 at Kapalua, the spotlight shines brightly on him this week. Never finishing better than T10 and never worse than T18, it’s not surprising he’s in the field for the sixth consecutive season. This week will be the first time in six seasons he’s not coming directly from Waialae. The Korean posted 20-under last year, his best total, yet it was only good enough for T18.

Tom Kim (20/1): Once Cantlay left the Las Vegas desert, Kim picked up the ball and ran with it. Winning the event the last two seasons, his first two times in the field, he’s proven he can fill it up in perfect scoring conditions. Cashing T6 here last January, the 21-year-old circled 26 birdies and an eagle, plus signed for 62 at the NT. With plenty of options from Korea in the field, he stands out.

Justin Thomas (22/1): Qualifying for Signature Events in 2024 is the carrot for the two-time major winner. Missing out on the playoffs last season, 2024 will require additional concentration, especially with the PGA Championship in his backyard of Louisville coming up in May. The last time he played The American Express was 2015 (T7). A fresh start to a fresh year. All aboard!

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Stadium Course at PGA West
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,187
Par:	72 (36-36).
Greens:	Overseeded Poa annua; 5,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	11 feet.
Rough:	Overseed at 1 inch. Dormant Tifgreen Bermuda at 2 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	Over 90 bunkers, seven holes with water in play.
Architect(s):	Pete Dye (1986).
Defending Champion (event):	Jon Rahm (-27; not entered).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Bill Haas (not on this rotation).
Course Record (last):	61; Patrick Cantlay (Round 4, 2021).
72 Hole Tournament Record (2016-current rotation):	261 (-27); Jon Rahm (2023).
Fact of the Week:	Only six international winners from the previous 64 events.
Fact of the Week II:	Johnny Miller is the only player to defend the title (1975-76).

Notes:

Field of 156.
First multi-course event of 2024 and first pro-am.
The OWGR is represented by 21 of the top 50.
Top 65 and ties will make the cut and play the weekend after 54 holes (play each course once).
$8.4 million – $1.512 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express
Farmers Insurance Open

Recent Winners – The American Express

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Jon Rahm (-27)	Played the final group with Davis Thompson and beat him by a shot to win for the second time.
2022	Hudson Swafford (-23)	Defeated Tom Hoge by two shots to win for the second time.
2021	Si Woo Kim (-23)	Only made two bogeys for the week on the SC/NT rotation to win by one.
2020	Andrew Landry (-26)	Tied the tournament scoring record winning by two.
2019	Adam Long (-26)	Became the first rookie to win since Jhonattan Vegas (2011).
2018	Jon Rahm (-22)	Needed a playoff to knock off Andrew Landry.
2017	Hudson Swafford (-20)	Wet, windy weekend produced the highest winning total to date in the new rota.
2016	Jason Dufner (-25)	Saw off David Lingmerth in a playoff in the first iteration of Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and LQCC

Angles

The Nicklaus Tournament Course plays to Par-72 and 7,147 yards. Playing 7,000 square feet on average, the Overseeded Poa annua greens are the largest of the three courses. Dylan Wu (2023) and Will Zalatoris (2022) have posted 61 here.

La Quinta Country Club is known for premium putting surfaces and usually plays the easiest of the trio. All three courses have minimal rough and green speeds that won’t broach 11 feet. Playing to Par-72 and 7,060 yards, it plays as one of the easiest on TOUR annually. Adam Hadwin posted 59 in Round 3 in 2017.

All eight winners have posted 20-under or better to win and have ranked in the top 10 in Par-4 and Par-5 scoring.

The HIGHEST cut in this rotation in the last three editions was 7-under. The 2021 edition used only the Stadium Course and NT and was a 36-hole chop.

First tournament with Poa annua Greens.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action from Bet365.com:

JT Poston (30/1): Making his third start in three events to start the season, he posted T3 in Las Vegas in the fall, T5 at Sentry, and solo sixth last week. Circling 29 birdies in 2023, he cashed T6 here last season. When trends converge, I jump.

Taylor Montgomery (50/1): Solo fifth on debut last year included three rounds of 66 or better. This desert doesn’t have the distraction of his home tournament in Las Vegas.

Adam Hadwin (60/1): One of the course horses this week, he’s never missed in seven visits and owns four top-10 paydays. Running second to Kim at Shriners in the fall, a missed cut last week at Sony will not deter me.

Taylor Pendrith (80/1): I might add every Canadian to my ticket. In his last five events, he’s posted T15 in four of his last five, including three in the top 10. Buy all you can get.

Grayson Murray (125/1): In six visits he’s posted T14 or better three times. I’ll ride the bounce from last week.

Patton Kizzire (125/1): Second consecutive week as a sponsor’s exemption. Cashing T13 last week, he’ll look to add to T11 and T22 in his previous two visits to La Quinta.

Sam Ryder (150/1): T13 and T10 in his last two appearances during his streak of nine consecutive made cuts.

Chesson Hadley (200/1): Cashing his last eight on TOUR includes T7 twice in two of his last four, including one in Las Vegas. He’s missed the weekend here on his last three trips so something has to give!

Jacob Bridgeman/Adrian Dumont de Chassart (300/1): The kids are all right. After both missed the cut last week, it’s time to put their heads down and make a bunch of birdies, just like they did all last season on the KFT.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express
Farmers Insurance Open

Total Winnings:		709,092

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Back to the mainland and the West Coast swing. Poa annua (except for the North Course at Torrey) for this week, Farmers, and Pebble Beach.

Two major differences this week:

Poa
Three courses

The American Express has produced six different winners over eight editions. Sadly, for gamers and gamblers, the bingo card of conquerors in the desert is quite full.

As I wrote last week, winning $1.5 million this week is great, but that’s almost third place for a major, FedExCup Playoff event, THE PLAYERS or seven more Signature Events.

This is a week where I’m going to take a chance with an angle, consequences be damned!

Recapping Last Week – Sony Open in Hawaii

MY CHOICE: Corey Conners – T57

The Canadian finished the week T80 of 81 players in Putting, needing 126 of them. Right, there were just 72 holes, got it.

Considerations

Eric Cole: Tough laydown this week as his form and function have been firing for months. Just a matter of preference. T13.

Russell Henley: I won’t talk you out of him this week, but I prefer him on a tougher ball-striking layout. Hairs split. Closed with 63 for T4. Sigh.

J.T. Poston: It shouldn’t be a surprise that this is most of my lineup in Expert Picks. Closed with 61 for 6^th. Sigh.

Matt Kuchar: Nobody in the field this week has done it better at Waialae. It’s here or Harbour Town if you’re gonna ride. #ShorterTheBetter. MC. Careful with 40-somethings…

Hideki Matsuyama: Dead last in putting last week. Needed the best putting numbers of his life to win this (his only top 10) two years ago. Careful. T30. If you didn’t use him this week he’s live for TPC Scottsdale or Memorial.

Will Zalatoris: Hard to saddle a guy after 81 and 79 in his last official outing. Be patient. 76-69. See you down the road.

Longshots

J.J. Spaun: I prefer him on Poa, but he’s been super consistent recently. MC

Chan Kim: Hawaiian native lit up the KFT late and has plenty of experience in the Pacific Rim. Ahhhhhhhhhhh, the ol’ 75-64…

This Week: The American Express

MY CHOICE: Adam Hadwin

Nobody is more comfortable on these three courses, and he has the scar tissues to prove it. The Canadian will look to make it eight from eight and add to his three finishes on the podium.

Others to Consider

Tom Kim: Tough laydown, especially after 66 to close at Kapalua to kick-start his 2024. His desert record is making me reconsider this pick until the first tee time on Thursday. Stay tuned.

Chris Kirk: T18-WIN in the last two weeks, plus he closed 63-64 here last year for T3.

J.T. Poston: Copied, pasted.

Justin Thomas: He’s not in any Signature Events until he qualifies. One leads to another. Saving him for the PGA Championship in his native state of Kentucky outside his birth city of Louisville is understood.

Patrick Cantlay: If you believe a big 2024 is brewing, I would not be surprised to see it start this week on these three tracks.

Longshots

Taylor Montgomery: When form meets course history…

Patton Kizzire: Probably not in THIS format. Probably everywhere else.

Glass Houses

Fantasy Golf Only

Valspar Championship Preview

Valspar Championship

One and Done

This Week – Valspar Championship

THE PLAYERS Championship Preview

Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview

Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches

One and Done

Mexico Open at Vidanta Preview

Mexico Open at Vidanta

One and Done

This Week – Mexico Open at Vidanta

The Genesis Invitational

WM Phoenix Open Preview

WM Phoenix Open

One and Done

AT&T Pebble Beach Preview

Farmers Insurance Open 2024

The American Express 2024 Preview

One and Done

This Week: The American Express