Cognizant Classic at the Palm Beaches

Cognizant Classic at the Palm Beaches

The Champion Course

PGA National

Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

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Top of the Board (odds via Bet365)

Shane Lowry and Daniel Berger would lead my card. Both have had a taste here, and both players have played well on the West Coast to start the season, each with a runner-up finish.

Russell Henley returned last year with T41 after back-to-back Top 10 paydays in 2021-22. The Georgia-Florida contingent should be littering the leaderboard.

Luke Clanton needs to make the cut to earn enough points through PGA TOUR U to secure his TOUR card for later this summer. He won last week in Panama City playing for Florida State University.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Ben An, Taylor Moore, and course horse Keith Mitchell should fill plenty of cards this week.

Longer shots Ryan Gerard, Chan Kim, and Gary Woodland can produce.

Luke Donald was an AUTO PLAY a decade ago here. Let’s see if he can sneak into the weekend and the top 40.

Zach Johnson is also a frequent weekender around here, including T21 and T12 the last two years.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseThe Champion Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,167
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; 7,000 square feet.
Stimpmeter:12 feet.
Rough:Overseeded ryegrass at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play60/20/15
Architect(s):George Fazio (1981); Jack Nicklaus (2002, 2014 redesign; 2018).
Defending Champion (event):Austin Eckroat (-17)
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Zero in 18 events at this course.
Course Record:61; Brian Harman (2012) only player entered to post this score.
72 Hole Tournament Record17-under (Par-71) Austin Eckroat 14-under (Par-70) Chris Kirk and Eric Cole 2023.
Fact of the Week:4 of the last 6 winners are first-time TOUR champions.
Fact of the Week II:3 of the last 6 winners played college golf at UGA.

The biggest defenses of the course are the Florida breeze and water penalty areas seemingly everywhere. Better be able to shape and control the golf ball.

Jack Nicklaus is the only player to win this event in consecutive seasons on the same course (1977, 1978).

Nobody has won twice since moving to The Champion Course (19th edition 2025).

A dry February produced less than an inch of rain before .65 inches fell this week.

Notes:

  • Field of 144.
  • The cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
  • The OWGR is represented by 16 of the top 50.
  • $9.2 million – $1.656 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Recent Winners

  • 2025 Season Winners
EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (first time)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaWorldBrian Campbell (first time)
  • 2024 Season Winners
EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray (Rest in Peace)
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampRafa Campos (first time)
The RSM ClassicMaverick McNealy (first time)

Recent Winners – Cognizant Classic

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2024Austin Eckroat (-17)Making his second start, he set the new standard for scoring at the now Par-71 track. Won by 3 and became the fourth first-time winner in six events.
2023Chris Kirk (-14)Needed an extra hole to defeat Eric Cole and produce the lowest winning total on the Par-70 layout in its final season.
2022Sepp Straka (-10)Outlasted Shane Lowry, Kurt Kitayama, and Daniel Berger in a deluge late on Sunday to win for the first time on TOUR.
2021Matt Jones (-12)Won by five in the big breezes.
2020Sungjae Im (-6)Became the youngest winner (21 yrs) and won for the first time on TOUR.
2019Keith Mitchell (-9)Held off Rickie Fowler by a shot to add his name to the list of four UGA Bulldog winners since 2014.

Notables

  • Brian Harman (+6500), another UGA grad, is one of two players to post 61, the course record, and is the only player to sign for this score in the field this week.
  • From 2018 through 2022, The Champion Course ranked in the top 10 most difficult courses on TOUR. The last two years, it ranked as the easiest of the four courses on The Florida Swing.
  • 15 holes provide water penalty areas.
  • The fairways have been reduced from 32 yards in width to 28 yards across on average. Two and a half inches of overseeded ryegrass awaits when the fairways are missed.
  • The last five winners have ranked T7 or better in GIR.
  • TifEagle Bermudagrass greens average 7,00 square feet and will run 12 feet on the Stimpmeter.
  • Eckroat is the only winner since 2014 to rank outside the top 20 in Scrambling.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
The SentrySungjae Im3rd$1,360,000
Sony Open in HawaiiRussell HenleyT10195,025
The American ExpressAdam HadwinMC 
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3252,080
AT&T Pebble BeachLudvig AbergWD 
WM Phoenix OpenRasmus HojgaardT12195,500
Genesis InvitationalWill ZalatorisT24168,857
Mexico OpenPatrick RodgersT2559,350

LAST WEEK – Mexico Open at Vidanta

MY CHOICE: Patrick Rodgers – T25

He was one of two players in the top 25 to post a round ABOVE par (72) on Sunday.

The only upside from another terrible selection is that I have Bhatia to use down the road.

We go again.

This Week – Cognizant Classic at the Palm Beaches

MY CHOICE: Daniel Berger

The Floridian just pips Lowry for the top spot this week. I’ll focus on the Irishman as McIlroy’s partner in New Orleans or use him across the pond. Berger knows this layout better than most, and I will argue he probably should have won here twice already. Running second at TPC Scottsdale, I don’t have to worry about him finding form in front of friends and family this week.

Just Missed

Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, Cameron Young, Luke Clanton

Mexico Open at VidantaWorld

Mexico Open at VidantaWolrd

Greg Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta

Vallarta, Mexico

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Top of the Board (odds via Bet365)

Akshay Bhatia (+1200): Supreme coastal/wind player, has all the shots and is the class of the field for my money. Easy to see why he’s on top.

Rasmus Hojgaard (+1400): I prefer him in the desert.

Kurt Kitayama (+2200): Another desert star, his putter will have to keep up with his fantastic ball-striking.

Patrick Rodgers (+2500): The current form meets course form. What could possibly go wrong?!?!?

Stephan Jaeger (+2500): Nothing worse than T18 from three starts includes T3 last year.

Sam Stevens (+2500): He should be ready pop. Cashed in his last 13 on TOUR and decent on the surface. Gave it a run against the big boys last week as well.

Michael Kim (+2800): After bombing out at the FIO in late January, he cashed T13 last week after running second, albeit seven shots back of Detry, in Phoenix.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Taylor Moore (+3000): All you can get.

Justin Lower (+5000): More than you need, plus one.

Jacob Bridgeman (+6600): Incredible on the surface. Incredibly soft number here, boooooooooo.

Thorbjorn Olesen (+6600): His grass.

Antoine Rozner (+8000): Four of his last seven starts worldwide are top-10 results, including a solo fourth in Qatar his last time out.

Nate Lashley or Emiliano Grillo (+12500): Both veterans and winners on this surface.

Rafa Campos (+50000): Yes, please.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseGreg Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta
Yards (per official scorecard):7,436.
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:Platinum Paspalum; 7,000 square feet.
Stimpmeter:11 feet.
Rough:Platinum Paspalum at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play106/14/12
Architect(s):Greg Norman (2015).
Defending Champion (event):Jake Knapp (-19)
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:N/A
Course Record:61; Jon Rahm (Round 3, 2023).
72 Hole Tournament Record260; Tony Finau (2023).
Fact of the Week:Knapp won in only his ninth TOUR start.
Fact of the Week II:Paspalum for the first time since El Cardonal last fall.

The 65th edition of the Mexico Open tees off at Greg Norman’s Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta.

The Australian’s coastal design, located just off the Pacific Ocean, opened in 2015.  Playing 7,436 yards to Par 71, the track features tee-to-green Platinum Paspalum.

Back for the second consecutive February edition, the forecast is outstanding for the four tournament days.

Without a plethora of course history, I suggest you read Horses for Courses at pgatour.com for more insight.

The resort course provides massive landing areas off the fairway to account for everyday players and the ocean breezes off the Pacific Ocean.

The Paspalum putting surfaces, 7,000 square feet, on average, will be prepped to run at just 11 feet.

Errant tee balls and approaches must steer clear of over 100 bunkers and water hazards found on 12 of 18 holes.

One of the biggest ballparks around, even with 20 yards shaved off the scorecard, Vidanta Vallarta has five Par-3 and four Par-5 holes. The course also features two holes (No. 10 and No. 16) as two of the toughest scoring chances on TOUR.

Notes:

  • Field of 132.
  • The cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
  • The OWGR is represented by four of the top 50.
  • $7 million – $1.26 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Recent Winners

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (first time)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray (Rest in Peace)
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampRafa Campos (first time)
The RSM ClassicMaverick McNealy (first time)

Recent Winners – Mexico Open at Vidanta

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2024Jake Knapp (-19)The rookie led by four after 54 holes and won comfortably by two shots over Sami Valimaki.
2023Tony Finau (-24)Rolled to a three-shot victory over Rahm.
2022Jon Rahm (-17)Held off Tony Finau and Brandon Wu by one shot. None of these players are entered.

Angles

The eighth event of the 2024 PGA TOUR season will be the first of two in Mexico this year. El Cardonal in Los Cabos will return in the fall to host for the second time.

The combination of a Greg Norman track and Mexico was in play at Mayakoba on the Yucatan Peninsula from 2007 through 2022.

Paspalum is a common playing surface in the resorts of the Caribbean and Mexico. PGA TOUR events played recently on Paspalum include El Cardonal, Puerto Rico Open, Corales Puntacana, and Mayakoba. Korn Ferry Tour players have experienced this surface in two events in the Bahamas.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy get kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
The SentrySungjae Im3rd$1,360,000
Sony Open in HawaiiRussell HenleyT10195,025
The American ExpressAdam HadwinMC 
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3252,080
AT&T Pebble BeachLudvig AbergWD 
WM Phoenix OpenRasmus HojgaardT12195,500
Genesis InvitationalWill ZalatorisT24168,857

LAST WEEK – Genesis Invitational

MY CHOICE: Will Zalatoris – T24

Making the cut on +3, I knew I was toast before the weekend started.

I should have just blindly stuck Tony Finau in, oh look, another top 10, another top 25…

Is this over yet?

This Week – Mexico Open at Vidanta

Patrick Rodgers

Fresh off a sniff in the big leagues of a Signature Event, it’s time to finally kick down the door to victory. Since he probably won’t, I’d also look at:

Justin Lower

Kurt Kitayama

Sam Stevens

Any of the Gaards

And of course, Karl Vilips

Genesis Invitational

Genesis Invitational

Torrey Pines Golf Course

South Course

La Jolla, California

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Chalk

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Scottie Scheffler: The front and back nines last Sunday created more questions than answers. Playing for the third week in a row, I would expect a more linear path on the weekend.

Rory McIlroy: Sticking the hottest player on the planet on a course that rewards his skillset is a no-brainer. He’s dominated Quail Hollow Club since 2010, and Torrey South is in that category.

Collin Morikawa: Hyper accurate off the tee, familiar grass will also help.

Justin Thomas: He’s tired of firing late on Sunday to play catch up. Let’s see if he breaks the streak of every other week after T6 in Arizona.

Hideki Matsuyama: Plenty of pop tee to green, but his short game might be the difference this week.

Ludvig Aberg: Thankfully, I’ve used all of my tokens on this ride. Is he sick? Healthy? Ready? Let me know.

Patrick Cantlay: I’ll be interested to see if he heats up in Florida. Plays well where he plays well and Torrey ain’t it.

Sungjae Im: Top 10s in three of his last four. Go.

Tommy Fleetwood: Big, long, and wet is how Torrey will play this week. The Englishman will need his litany of short-game magic to deliver to contend.

Taylor Pendrith: Hit it, find it, hit it again. Back-to-back top 10 paydays with seven of eight-weekend rounds par or better. Super putter.

Tony Finau: Two missed cuts and two top 10s in his last four here. Never worse than T24.

Shane Lowry: Battering the sprinkler line is never a bad plan. Only McIlroy was better at Pebble Beach.

NOW PLAYING: Torrey Pines South Golf Course

Host CourseSouth Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,765.
Par:72 (32-36).
Greens:Poa annua; 5,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:13 feet and up.
Rough:Overseeded Rye and Poa annua around FOUR inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play82/1/1 (a pond in front of No. 18)
Architect(s):William F. Bell and William P. Bell. (1957).
Defending Champion (event):Hideki Matsuyama.
Defending Champion (course):Harris English.
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Jason Day (2018, 2015).
Course Record:61; Tiger Woods (1999).
72 Hole Tournament Record (Torey Pines South)22-under; Tiger Woods (1999).
Fact of the Week:The Genesis Invitational was moved from The Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades to Torrey Pines because of the January wildfires. All information this week is based on COURSE, not event.
Fact of the Week II:Harris English is the only American winner in the 2025 season, and he won on this track in late January at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Notes:

  • Field of 72.
  • THE 36-HOLE CUT returns this week. The Signature Events with player hosts (Genesis, Arnold Palmer, Memorial) will cut to the top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead.
  • The OWGR is represented by 46 of the top 50.
  • $20 million – $4 million – 700 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

For those of you who do not read Horses for Courses at pgatour.com, you should.

The Genesis Invitational is annually played at The Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades. I’m not referring to any past performances on a course that is NOT BEING USED this week.

Right, Hideki Matsuyama is the event defending champion and closed with 62 last year. The course they play is more important than the name of the event.

Recent Winners

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (first time)

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray (Rest in Peace)
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampRafa Campos (first time)
The RSM ClassicMaverick McNealy (first time)

Recent Winners – Farmers Insurance Open

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2025Harris English (-9)Defeated Sam Stevens by a shot to win for the fifth time on TOUR.
2024Matthieu Pavon (-13)Won in his first appearance. Won for the first time on TOUR.
2023Max Homa (-13)Held off Keegan Bradley by two.
2022Luke List (-15)Defeated Will Zalatoris in a playoff.
2021Patrick Reed (-14)Lapped the field by five shots.
2020Marc Leishman (-15)Won by a shot.
2019Justin Rose (-21)Missed tying the tournament scoring record by one. Adam Scott was second at 19-under.
2018Jason Day (-10)Won for the second time and won for the second time in a playoff.
2017Jon Ram (-13)Won for the first time on TOUR and is the last person to win in their 20s.
2016Brandt Snedeker (-6)Didn’t strike a ball on Monday after bad weather wiped most of Sunday’s round.
2015Jason Day (-9)Won a four-man playoff to kick off his best year on TOUR.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Much better in the desert. 5 players in the top 25, highlighted by Taylor Moore and T9.

Course Horses Jason Day, Tony Finau, and Sam Stevens (!?!?) should run well this week.

Will Zalatoris, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Keegan Bradley will not have to rely on hot putters to keep up.

Gary Woodland, Cam Davis, and Min Woo Lee all have enough firepower to shorten this beast.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee on Thursday).

1 use per year.

LAST WEEK – WM Phoenix Open

MY CHOICE: Rasmus Hojgaard – T12

I’d mention that he played in the final three-ball but that would just open an old wound.

I was ready for a final round 74, but his birdie at the last made me a few dollars.

Thomas Detry, Daniel Berger, and Mike Kim were not on my radar, so I’ll gladly take the second-best finisher in the OAD game this week.

I also didn’t have to burn Justin Thomas like some of the others.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
The SentrySungjae Im3rd$1,360,000
Sony Open in HawaiiRussell HenleyT10195,025
The American ExpressAdam HadwinMC 
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3252,080
AT&T Pebble BeachLudvig AbergWD 
WM Phoenix OpenRasmus HojgaardT12195,500

THIS WEEK – Genesis Invitational

Big purse.

Big win ticket compared to other Signature Events. $4 million instead of $3.6 million.

Biiiigggggggggggggggg course, the longest used on TOUR.

Hideki Matsuyama and Rory McIlroy are the Signature Event winners so far and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another household name holding the trophy again this week.

I need somebody who can smash it, putt Poa annua, scramble, and grind out pars over a long, wet track.

MY CHOICE: Will Zalatoris

Let’s try this again.

I ran him out for the Farmers but he WD before the event started and Jason Day took his spot.

I have no worries about his course form and I was encouraged to see 68-69 to close at Pebble Beach his last time out.

Others to consider:

Keegan Bradley, Taylor Pendrith, Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Stevens

WM Phoenix Open

WM Phoenix Open

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale

Scottsdale, Arizona

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Chalk

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Scottie Scheffler (+260): If he’s in the field, he has my attention. At less than 3-1, I’m hesitant, but this field does not have the depth of Pebble Beach. Without the pressure to win three in a row, I’d be shocked if he finished outside the top 10.

Justin Thomas (+1400): Play him in the “without Scheffler” market. Desert dog and course horse, just not on the level of Scheffler. Who is? Also a winner at Waialae CC.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1600): A two-time winner like Scheffler, the Japanese star is the only player in the top three with a win this year. Nobody has accused Matsuyama or Scheffler of being lights-out putters but they are both winners here twice.

Sam Burns (+2500): A super putter, he’ll enjoy the large targets approaching the greens. The largest greens on TOUR at Kapalua produced at T8 cash in January.

Sungjae Im (+2500): The Korean’s history at the event matches his early 2025 results, top finishes and head-scratchers.

Tom Kim (+2800): Hit the ball, already! Eight rounds here produced four rounds in the 70s and four rounds in the 60s.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseThe Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale
Yards (per official scorecard):7,261.
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:Poa annua; 7,100 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:12 feet.
Rough:Overseeded Rye and Poa annua around two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play67/3/6
Architect(s):Tom Weiskopf & Jay Morrish (1986); Tom Weiskopf (2014 renovation).
Defending Champion (event):Nick Taylor (-21)*
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Scheffler (2023, 2022); Hideki Matsuyama (2017, 2016).
Course Record:60; Nick Taylor, Round 1 (2024).
72 Hole Tournament Record (post-2014 renovation)21-under; Nick Taylor & Charley Hoffman (2024).
Fact of the Week:Taylor became the fourth international winner this century.
Fact of the Week II:Only two players have won on debut this century.

Notes:

  • Field of 132.
  • THE CUT returns this week. The top 65 and ties advance to the final two rounds.
  • The OWGR is represented by 28 of the top 50.
  • $9.2 million – $1.656 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Recent Winners

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray (Rest in Peace)
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampRafa Campos (first time)
The RSM ClassicMaverick McNealy (first time)

Recent Winners – WM Phoenix Open

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2024Nick Taylor (-21)Held off Charley Hoffman to become the sixth winner in the last nine to need extra holes.
2023Scottie Scheffler (-19)Tied the tournament scoring record defending his title. Won by two shots over Nick Taylor. Third place was five back.
2022Scottie Scheffler (-16)Defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff to win for the first time on TOUR.
2021Brooks Koepka (-19)Matched the tournament scoring mark holding off KH Lee and Xander Schauffele by a shot.
2020Webb Simpson (-17)Defeated Tony Finau in a playoff.
2019Rickie Fowler (-19)Tied the tournament scoring record by defending his title. Won by two shots over Nick Taylor. Third place was five back.
2018Gary Woodland (-18)Defeated Chez Reavie in a playoff; Circled 26 birdies.
2017Hideki Matsuyama    (-17)Successfully defended his title knocking out Simpson in a playoff.
2016Hideki Matsuyama     (-14)Won in his third attempt defeating Fowler in a playoff.
2105Brooks Koepka (-15)Won on his debut and won for the first time on TOUR.

Notables

  • The highest winning total since 2015 is 15-under-par.
  • Eight of the last 10 winners have ranked T6 or better in Ball-Striking.
  • Taylor and Matsuyama join Aaron Baddeley (2007) and Vijay Singh (2003) as the only international winners this century.
  • Only two players won on debut this century, including 23-year-old J.B. Holmes (not entered) in 2006 and none since 2015.
  • Holmes and Matsuyama are the youngest winners at 23.
  • Kenny Perry (not entered) is the oldest winner at 48 in 2009.
  • Tom Weiskopf designs feature on TOUR at TPC Craig Ranch, where K.H. Lee (+27000) has won twice, and Black Desert, where Matt McCarty (+30000) won in the fall of 2024.
  • Every winner in the last decade ranked T11 or better in Greens in Regulation.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

After a DISASTER last week, let’s try and rebound, eh?

Sepp Straka (+4000): In the fight most of the weekend at Pebble Beach, he’s already a winner this season in the desert.

Sahith Theegala (+4000): This will be the week he gets the train back on the tracks. T3 on debut and solo fifth last year.

Rasmus Hojgaard (+5000): T22 last week to break the jet lag. Shit-fire hot across the world since last year.

Nick Taylor (+6000): Even as the defending champion, he knows he’s not the star of the show. And he’s fine with that.

Luke Clanton (+6000): If he makes the cut, he gets his PGA TOUR card.

Si Woo Kim (+5500): Trending at the event.

Sam Stevens (+7000): Stick a top 10 ticket here.

Lee Hodges (+10000): Look up his recent form and remember he has big targets to aim for this week.

Taylor Moore (+10000): Rounding into form and a solid performer in the desert.

Eric Cole (+12500): Too big of a number to pass up for a top 10, top 20.

KH Lee (+22500): Twice a winner at TPC Craig Ranch, a Tom Weiskopf design.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

With EIGHT Signature Events spread out throughout the season, player management becomes a major issue. These events do NOT include the four majors or THE PLAYERS Championship. These events do NOT include the FedExCup Playoffs. This game ends with the BMW Championship.

Sign up here

LAST WEEK – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

MY CHOICE: Ludvig Aberg – WD

For the second week in a row, my selection withdrew.

This time, he played a round and THEN quit, leaving me no recourse.

Did I mention it was a no-cut event?

My backup choices were shit as well.

I guess I was distracted being there.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
The SentrySungjae Im3rd$1,360,000
Sony Open in HawaiiRussell HenleyT10195,025
The American ExpressAdam HadwinMC 
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3252,080
AT&T Pebble BeachLudvig AbergWD 

THIS WEEK – WM Phoenix Open

The shitshow in the desert of Scottsdale has paid off veterans and young, up-and-comers alike.

Although disappointed with my last three weeks, this game will be won and lost with THE PLAYERS, four majors, and the first two events of the FedExCup Playoffs.

It’s not time to panic, yet.

MY CHOICE: Rasmus Hojgaard

Right.

Take the new guy on some of the friendlier greens on TOUR to putt. I have no qualms about the way he hits it or his current form. Also, I’m not burning Scheffler or Matsuyama with this purse.

You do you.

Others to consider:

Sam Burns, Tom Kim, Sepp Straka, Kurt Kitayama, Lee Hodges

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Pebble Beach Golf Links (Host)

Spyglass Hill Golf Club

Pebble Beach, California

Head to Golfbet for all our content each week:

Chalk

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Scottie Scheffler (+500): His first appearance of the season, he opened with 64 at Pebble Beach last year and cashed T6. The tournament rust is the only kryptonite. I doubt he would enter if he wasn’t ready to win.

Rory McIlroy (+1300): Didn’t miss a beat in the fall in Europe and cashed a top-five payday in the desert earlier this month.

Collin Morikawa (+1300): After running second to Matsuyama at The Sentry, the former Cal Bear returns to familiar Poa annua. The winner of the PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park on Poa annua up the coast in San Francisco deserves attention.

Justin Thomas (+1500): The heat wave that followed his play after the birth of his first child is not surprising. Cashing on the podium in three of his last four starts, the next stop is lifting the trophy.

Patrick Cantlay (+1900): He plays well where he plays well and four consecutive starts T11 or better qualifies at the AT&T.

Ludvig Aberg (+2200): Finishing second on debut in 2024, he did not sign for a bogey in 36 holes at Pebble Beach. Opening with 63 last week at the North Course at Torrey Pines, he fell ill the rest of the week and fell apart. If there are no lingering issues, I’m on board.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2200): The top selections this week have never won this event. Matsuyama is the only winner from the 2025 season. Making just his second appearance, the Japanese start didn’t break 70 last year in 54 holes.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CoursePebble Beach Golf Links
Yards (per official scorecard):6,972.
Par:72 (36-36).
Greens:Poa annua; 3,500 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:10.5 feet.
Rough:Overseeded Rye and Poa annua between two and three inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play116/1/1(Pacific Ocean, No. 18)
Architect(s):Jack Neville & Douglas Grant (1919).
Defending Champion (event):Wyndham Clark (-17).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record:60; Wyndham Clark (Round 3, 2024).
72 Hole Tournament Record (three courses)22-under; Brandt Snedeker (2015).
Fact of the Week:There are just five international winners.
Fact of the Week II:Australian Brett Ogle is the only debutant winner (1993).
  
Spyglass Hill GCNotes
Yards (per official scorecard):7,047
Par:72 (36-36).
Greens:Poa annua; 5,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:11 feet.
Rough:Overseeded Rye and Poa annua at two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play62/4/4
Architect(s):Robert Trent Jones, Sr., (1966).
Course Record (last):62; Luke Donald, 2006.
Fact of the Week:Spyglass Hill has been in the rotation since 1978. I will be volunteering at Hole 12 on Thursday and Friday. Come by and say hello!

Notes:

  • Field of 80.
  • 18 holes on each course to determine Pro-Am winner.
  • 36 holes on the weekend to determine the Signature Event champion.
  • The OWGR is represented by 45 of the top 50.
  • NO CUT EVENT
  • $20 million – $3.6 million – 700 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Recent Winners

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray (Rest in Peace)
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampRafa Campos (first time)
The RSM ClassicMaverick McNealy (first time)

Recent Winners – AT&T Pebble Beach

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2024Wyndham Clark (-17)Set the new course record and held off Aberg by a shot.
2023Justin Rose (-18)First Englishman/European winner in history. Won by three shots over Brendon Todd and Brandon Wu.
2022Tom Hoge (-19)Became only the third player since 2000 to win his first TOUR event at Pebble Beach. Won by two shots over Jordan Spieth.
2021Daniel Berger (-18)Held off hometown hero Maverick McNealy by two shots. Only used PB and Spyglass (no amateurs).
2020Nick Taylor (-19)The Canadian became just the fifth international winner in history. Won by four shots.
2019Phil Mickelson (-19)Caught, passed, and blew away Paul Casey by three.
2018Ted Potter, Jr., (-17)Beat Dustin Johnson heads-up in the final group on Sunday.
2017Jordan Spieth (-19)Breezed home by four shots as he led the field in Bogey Avoidance.

Notables

  • One of the last seven champions was younger than 30.
  • Rose is the only champion of the last 10 NOT to finish in the top 2 in Par-4 scoring.
  • In 2022, Tom Hoge became just the third champion this century to win for the first time on the PGA TOUR.
  • In 1993, Australian Brett Ogle was the last player to debut and win the event.
  • Only five international players have lifted the trophy, including Justin Rose, the only European winner.
  • Nick Taylor, the 2020 champion, is the last player to win in wire-to-wire fashion. He’s also cashed T30 or better six times.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Jason Day: THE course horse for non-winners. Nine top-10 paydays and never missed a weekend when the event had a cut.

Maverick McNealy: Grew up on the links and already won on the Seaside last November.

Tom Hoge: Over the last three years, his PB aggregate grabbed my attention just as much as his 2022 victory.

Aaron Rai: Hits too many Fairways and GIR to dismiss.

Mark Hubbard: The San Jose native knows his way around Poa.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

With EIGHT Signature Events spread throughout the season, player management becomes a major issue. These events do NOT include the four majors or THE PLAYERS Championship. These events do NOT include the FedExCup Playoffs. This game ends with the BMW Championship.

Sign up here

LAST WEEK – Farmers Insurance Open

A perfect event for overreaction after a terrible week in the desert!

Plenty of course horses to saddle, but after last year’s first-timer barrage, I’m experiencing paralysis by analysis.

MY CHOICE: Will Zalatoris – PRE TOURNAMENT WD

Defaulting to Day before Pebble Beach was a choice, and not a very good one in hindsight.

Others to consider: Jason Day, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Aaron Rai, Maverick McNealy

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
The SentrySungjae Im3rd$1,360,000
Sony Open in HawaiiRussell HenleyT10195,025
The American ExpressAdam HadwinMC 
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3252,080

THIS WEEK – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Big purse! Big history!

The weather should NOT be a factor this week and the locals tell me there has barely been any rain in January.

Firm and fast? Maybe not, but it will not be a slog.

The last time the weather was good, Justin Rose became the only European/English winner in history.

Pebble Beach will play easier than Spyglass, but that’s nothing new.

The payday requires a big-name player.

MY CHOICE: Ludvig Aberg

I’m expecting a bounce-back after his illness/collapse last weekend at Torrey Pines. Oh, I don’t have Jason Day to fire after his IN EMERGENCY BREAK GLASS performance last week.

Speaking of broken Glass, the last two weeks wiped out a decent start.

A no-cut event and a guy who didn’t make a bogey on PB last year is not the worst advice I can provide.

Others to consider:

Remember, there are four majors and THE PLAYERS Championship so there are PLENTY of others to choose from this week.

Also, the TOUR is returning to Torrey Pines in three weeks for the Genesis Invitational.

Justin Thomas, Maverick McNealy, Denny McCarthy, Thomas Detry

Farmers Insurance Open

via @PGATOUR x

Farmers Insurance Open

Torrey Pines Golf Club

South Course (host)

North Course

La Jolla, California

Golfbet articles from the entire crew – click here

Chalk

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

I’m not going through the players who WD early this week. International travel is part of it. Cold and flu season is part of it. TGL is part of it.

Who IS playing is important.

Ludvig Aberg (+850): Smoked The Sentry to close 17-under on the weekend. Destroys courses tee to green and that plays this week.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1200): Already a winner this year, his power and short game acumen always works at Torrey Pines.

Sungjae Im (+1800): Blew a tire last week (77 Round 1) and missed the cut. Blew a tire here last year to kill his streak of T4-T6 and five straight.

Will Zalatoris (+2200): I’m not going to wait. Site of his PGA TOUR debut in 2018, he’s usually a factor.

Jason Day (+2500): The two-time winner killed me here last year with a MC. Cashed T3 last week in the desert and always is excellent in January.

Tony Finau (+2800): The only thing left to do here is hit the podium. Never worse than T24 in nine of 10.

Keegan Bradley (+2800): Absolutely flying at the moment, he ran second here to Homa in 2023. Strike while he’s hot.

Taylor Pendrith (+3000): Bomb and gouge specialist who has no problem holing putts, and no problem playing here (T9 2024, T16 2022)

Max Greyserman (+3000): An incredible putter, let’s see how he plays out of the rough this week after racking up big finishes without.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseSouth Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,765.
Par:72 (36-36).
Greens:Poa annua; 5,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:13 feet plus.
Rough:Overseeded ryegrass at FOUR inches and growing.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play82/1/1. Pond in front of Par-5 No. 18.
Architect(s):William P. Bell (1957) & William F Bell (1957); Rees Jones (2001, 2019).
Defending Champion (event):Mattieu Pavon (-13).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Jason Day (2018, 2015); Brandt Snedeker (2016, 2012).
Course Record (last):62; Tiger Woods (1999).
72 Hole Tournament Record (2016-current rotation):22-under; Tiger Woods (1999; last).
Fact of the Week:EVENT RUNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY for the fourth straight season.
Fact of the Week II:Tiger Woods won this event eight times. Sadly, he’s not in the field this week.
Fact of the Week III:Three winners since 2017 have made this their first victory on TOUR.

Notes:

  • Field of 156.
  • Second of three multi-course events in three weeks.
  • The OWGR is represented by 21 of the top 50.
  • Top 65 and ties will make the cut and play the weekend after 36 holes (play each course once).
  • $9.3 million – $1.674 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.
  • Points available for the Aon Next 5 for Pebble Beach qualification.

Recent Winners

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance Open 

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray (Rest in Peace)
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampRafa Campos (first time)
The RSM ClassicMaverick McNealy (first time)

Recent Winners – Farmers Insurance Open

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2024Mattieu Pavon (-13)First TOUR victory in just his third start with a card; 11th TOUR start. First appearance.
2023Max Homa (-13)Defeated Keegan Bradley by two shots.
2022Luke List (-15)Shot 66 on Sunday and then defeated Will Zalatoris in a playoff. First TOUR win.
2021Patrick Reed (-14)Only player to finish in double digits under par. Won by five shots.
2020Marc Leishman (-15)Won by a shot.
2019Justin Rose (-21)Missed tying the course record by a shot.
2018Jason Day (-10)Knocked out Ryan Palmer and Alex Noren (not entered) in a playoff for his second win and second win in a playoff.
2017Jon Rahm (-13)Won by three shots on debut and secured his first TOUR win.
2016Brandt Snedeker (-6)Extreme weather turned the event upside down. Snedeker won for the second time without having to play the final day.

Angles

  • The South Course is annually one of the toughest tracks on TOUR. The North Course scores almost 2.5 shots easier, on average.
  • Power players, elite short-game artists, and grinders will litter the top of the leaderboard on SATURDAY.
  • The last 10 winners ranked in the top 10 for Bogey Avoidance.
  • The cut has never been worse than Even over the last decade.
  • Gaining strokes tee to green and on the greens will go a long way.
  • Only Snedeker posted a round in the 70s on the North Course and went on to win.
  • South Course – take your medicine, attack when given the chance, and try to get up and down on the Par-5 holes.
  • North Course – Time to score!

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Beau Hossler: Long Beach native knows Poa.

Nicklas Norgaard: If he’s 70-1 in this field, you have my attention.

Rico Hoey: Led the field in GIR last week and was T3 at Sony. SoCal.

Michael Kim: San Diego HS alum.

Austin Eckroat: Can flush it. That never goes out of style.

Taylor Moore: Did NOT make a bogey last week (T7). That will change this week but still #Evidence.

Patrick Rodgers: Three top-10 finishes and six missed cuts. DO YOU LIKE VOLATILITY??

Vincent Norrman: Good start, great ball-striker.

Hayden Springer: Played really well on the South Course in 2024.

Taylor Montgomery: If he’s in decent shape physically this number is free money.

Peter Malnati: He won’t win, but he’ll make the cut and sneak into the top 40.

Good luck!

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

With EIGHT Signature Events spread out throughout the season, player management becomes a major issue. These events do NOT include the four majors or THE PLAYERS Championship. These events do NOT include the FedExCup Playoffs. This game ends with the BMW Championship.

Sign up here

LAST WEEK – AMEX

MY CHOICE: Adam Hadwin – MC

Just Missed: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Davis Thompson, J.T. Poston, Si Woo Kim, Tom Hoge

Just terrible on every level. I keep reminding myself that this is hard, but it shouldn’t be this hard.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
The SentrySungjae Im3rd$1,360,000
Sony Open in HawaiiRussell HenleyT10195,025
The American ExpressAdam HadwinMC 
Farmers Insurance   

THIS WEEK – Farmers Insurance Open

A perfect event for overreaction after a terrible week in the desert!

Plenty of course horses to saddle, but after last year’s first-timer barrage, I’m experiencing paralysis by analysis.

MY CHOICE: Will Zalatoris

His spiritual home and the results followed. Led the field in Bogey Avoidance last year and is trending nicely to start 2025. Time to kick open the door!

Others to consider: Jason Day, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Aaron Rai, Maverick McNealy

The Amercian Express

@TheAmexGolf

The American Express

The Stadium Course at PGA West (Host)

Nicklaus Tournament Course

La Quinta Country Club

La Quinta, CA

Golfbet articles from the entire crew – click here

Chalk

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Justin Thomas (+1200): After favorite Xander Schauffele dipped on Monday, the man who shared third with him last year moved up. The two-time PGA Championship winner returned to the Coachella Valley last year for the first time since 2015.  Playing this three-course rotation for the first time, he led the field in Birdies (31) and tied the course record (61) at the Stadium Course. Not bad.

Sungjae Im (+1200): Never missed the weekend here but only has one top-10 result from six visits. All six paydays are T25 or better. Safe as you like.

Sam Burns (+1600): In his three previous visits to Kapalua, the new father as of May had never cashed inside the top 25. Circling 28 birdies against five bogeys at the Plantation Course, he took home T8 money. Leading the field in Par-5 scoring last year, the five-time winner on TOUR was the 36-hole leader before drifting to T6. All aboard!

Patrick Cantlay (+1800): He hasn’t won since the 2022 BMW Championship but has an excellent record in Las Vegas, plus three top-10 paydays and a share of the course record here. I’ll save him for more difficult tracks.

Tony Finau (+2500): Cashing fourth in 2021 is his only top-10 result in seven trips. Easily overpowering the three courses, he needs a banner week from the putter to contend.

Tom Kim (+2800): Surely he recovered from watching his mates in TGL get smoked on Tuesday night. A two-time winner in the Las Vegas desert, he’s missed the cut twice in three visits. T6 in 2023 included 62 at NT.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseStadium Course at PGA West
Yards (per official scorecard):7,210
Par:72 (36-36).
Greens:Overseeded Poa annua (TifEagle); 7,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:11 feet.
Rough:Overseed at 1 inch. Dormant Tifgreen Bermuda at 2 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-PlayOver 90 bunkers; seven holes with water in play.
Architect(s):Pete Dye (1986).
Defending Champion (event):Jon Rahm (-27; not entered).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Bill Haas (not on this rotation).
Course Record (last):61; Justin Thomas (Round 3, 2024), Patrick Cantlay (Round 4, 2021).
72 Hole Tournament Record (2016-current rotation):259; Nick Dunlap (-29).
Fact of the Week:Only six international winners from the previous 65 events.
Fact of the Week II:Johnny Miller is the only player to defend the title (1975-76).

Notes:

  • Field of 156.
  • First multi-course event of 2024 and first pro-am.
  • The OWGR is represented by 19 of the top 50.
  • The top 65 and ties will make the cut and play the weekend after 54 holes (play each course once).
  • $8.8 million – $1.584 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.
  • Points are available for the Aon Next 5 for Pebble Beach qualification.

Recent Winners

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American Express 
Farmers Insurance Open 

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray (Rest in Peace)
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampRafa Campos (first time)
The RSM ClassicMaverick McNealy (first time)

Recent Winners – The American Express

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2024Nick Dunlap (-29)First amateur to win on TOUR since 1991; First TOUR start (sponsor’s exemption); Tournament scoring record.
2023Jon Rahm (-27)Played in the final group with Davis Thompson and beat him by a shot to win for the second time.
2022Hudson Swafford      (-23)Defeated Tom Hoge by two shots to win for the second time.
2021Si Woo Kim (-23)Only made two bogeys for the week on the SC/NT rotation to win by one.
2020Andrew Landry (-26)Tied the tournament scoring record winning by two.
2019Adam Long (-26)Became the first rookie to win since Jhonattan Vegas (2011).
2018Jon Rahm (-22)Needed a playoff to knock off Andrew Landry.
2017Hudson Swafford      (-20)Wet, windy weekend produced the highest winning total in the new rota.
2016Jason Dufner (-25)Saw off David Lingmerth in a playoff in the first iteration of Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and LQCC

Angles

  • The Nicklaus Tournament Course plays to Par-72 and 7,147 yards. Playing 7,000 square feet on average, the Overseeded Poa annua greens are the largest of the three courses. Dylan Wu (2023) and Will Zalatoris (2022) have posted 61 here.
  • La Quinta Country Club is known for premium putting surfaces and usually plays the easiest of the trio. All three courses have minimal rough and green speeds that won’t exceed 11 feet. Playing to Par-72 and 7,060 yards, it ranks as one of the easiest tracks on TOUR annually. Adam Hadwin posted 59 in Round 3 in 2017.
  • All nine winners have posted 20-under or better to win and have ranked in the top 10 in Par-4 and Par-5 scoring.
  • The HIGHEST cut in this rotation in the last three editions was 7-under. The LOWEST cut in this rotation was 13-UNDER-PAR last year.
  • First tournament with Poa annua greens.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Davis Thompson (+4000): Runner-up in 2022 can send it and putt it. Good combo.

Harry Hall (+4500): After making nine birdies in one round at Kapalua, his career-best, he put 10 circles on the card in Round 1 at the Sony Open. The Las Vegas resident has cashed T14 or better in his last five on TOUR, including T10-T8 to open the new season. Bang.

Cameron Young (+4000): Ok, I’ll bite. He putted GREAT at Kapalua and hit it like shit. ANYTHING with the flat stick this week and he should contend.

Nick Dunlap (+5500): First defense. No back-to-back winner since Johnny Miller in the mid-1970s. No, thank you. Let him enjoy the love this week.

Nico Echavarria (+6000): Here it is: Four T6 or better results in his last six include a win, T2, and a playoff loss last week. I mean…

Eric Cole (+7000): Posted 20-under through 54 holes last year, but an even-par 72 in Round 4 knocked him back to T21. Lesson learned. Solo fifth last week at Waialae with 23 birdies (T1).

Adam Hadwin (+7500): A perfect nine from nine comes with three podium finishes and five total top-10 results.

Rico Hoey (+10000): Super tee-to-green, he hit the podium with T3 in Las Vegas.

Alex Smalley (+10000): Three straight in the T20 range.

Andrew Putnam (+12000): Seven straight. T36 or better in six.

Frankie Capan III (+15000): No pressure and handled a few shootouts on the KFT last season. Play freely.

Sam Ryder (+27500): Cashed in six of seven visits. Toss him in.

Taylor Montgomery (+40000): If his shoulders feel good, his putter can bail him out.

Good luck!

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

With EIGHT Signature Events spread throughout the season, player management becomes a major issue. These events do NOT include the four majors or THE PLAYERS Championship. These events do NOT include the FedExCup Playoffs. This game ends with the BMW Championship.

Sign up here

LAST WEEK – Sony Open in Hawaii

MY CHOICE: Russell Henley – T10

That was a wild ride, man! For the sake of my sanity, I will NOT relieve his putting woes from inside 10 feet in this column. Sitting three back entering the final round, I was pleased to have a chance. I’ll take this result and run. Nothing wrong with back-to-back T10 or better to start.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
The SentrySungjae Im3rd$1,360,000
Sony Open in HawaiiRussell HenleyT10195,025
The American Express   
Farmers Insurance   

THIS WEEK – The American Express

Back to the mainland this week for the first Pro-Am and multi-course event!

Two major differences this week:

  1. Pro-Am
  2. Three courses in play = 54-hole cut

Over the years, this event has had the full bingo card of winners. Major champions, journeymen, youngsters, veterans, and everything in between.

When a minimum of 20-under is required to contend, heck last year that was good for T21, anything can and does happen. The previous two years, 10-under or better was required to play on Sunday.

The Stadium Course has just enough trouble to turn 64 into 74 but in classic Pete Dye design, great shots result in fantastic scoring chances.

There’s too much volatility this week for me to worry about a top 10 or winner from a premium player.

MY CHOICE: Course Horse Adam Hadwin

Others to consider

Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Davis Thompson, J.T. Poston, Si Woo Kim, Tom Hoge

Sony Open in Hawaii

Sony Open in Hawaii

Waialae Country Club

Honolulu, Oahu, Hawaii

Welcome to 2025!

For those of you who are just arriving for the first time, here’s what’s going on:

This column is me. My thoughts, my humor, my fun, my opinions.

I write Odds Outlook every Monday and Horses for Courses each Wednesday at PGATOUR.COM.

Please follow along at the TOUR website for all our great betting and fantasy content!

Chalk

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Hideki Matsuyama (+900): Record-setting 35-under-par winner last week at Kapalua plus a previous champion here makes for an easy consensus favorite. Coming off 33 birdies and two eagles against just two bogeys should scare the others. Amazingly, he owns just one top-10 result at Waiale from 12 tries.

Corey Conners (+1400): Guess who finished T5 and led the field in SG: Putting last week? Yes, SG: PUTTING!

Tom Kim (+2000): Ran second in Korea to Ben An and then went to The Bahamas and ran second to Scheffler at the Hero World Challenge. Did not qualify for The Sentry last week.

Russell Henley (+2000): The 2013 winner on debut in his first event with a TOUR card was also beaten in a playoff in 2022 by Matsuyama and missed a playoff last year by a shot. I’d say he’s comfortable at Waialae! Posted 17-under last week for T30.

Maverick McNealy (+2500): Plenty, including me, will point out that the Seaside Course on Sea Island, host of the RSM Classic, is a course comp this week. McNealy won for the first time on TOUR to wrap up the FedExCup Fall in November on that track. Four rounds in the 60s and only four bogeys at Kapalua (T8) suggests he’s not satisfied.

Keegan Bradley (+2800): Imagine posting 21-under (T15) last week and not hitting the top 10! The Ryder Cup captain is streaking wildly at Waialae during the previous five years: T12-MC-T12-MC-P2. The playoff loss last year was his best result from 14 visits.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseWaialae Country Club.
Yards (per official scorecard):7,044.
Par:70 (35-35)
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; 7,100 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:11 feet.
Rough:Celebration Bermuda at almost three inches inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play83/4/5.
Architect(s):Seth Raynor (1927).
Defending Champion (event):Grayson Murray (-17). RIP.
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record (last):59; Justin Thomas (Round 1, 2017).
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):253 (-27); Justin Thomas (2017).
Fact of the Week:Waialae CC has hosted every event since 1965 except for 1970 (no event).
Fact of the Week II:Hideki Matsuyama (2022) was the last of nine consecutive winners who played the previous week at Kapalua.

Notes:

  • Field of 144.
  • The OWGR is represented by 10 of the top 30.
  • Top 65 and ties will make the cut and play the weekend.
  • $8.7 million – $1.566 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Recent Winners

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray (Rest in Peace)
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampRafa Campos (first time)
The RSM ClassicMaverick McNealy (first time)

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in Hawaii 
The American Express 
Farmers Insurance Open 

Recent Winners – Sony Open in Hawaii

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2024Grayson Murray (-17)Knocked out Byeong Hun An and Keegan Bradley with a 48-foot birdie on the first playoff hole. May he rest in peace.
2023Si Woo Kim (-18)Shot 64 on Sunday to make up a three-shot deficit and knock out 54-hole leader Hayden Buckley by a shot.
2022Hideki Matsuyama     (-23)Matched the second-highest winning score since 2000. Rain and windy conditions all weekend.
2021Kevin Na (-21)Shot 61 in Round 3 and beat Chris Kirk by one.
2020Cameron Smith (-11)Matched the second highest winning score since 2000. Rain and windy conditions all weekend.
2019Matt Kuchar (-22)Won comfortably by four over Andrew Putnam.
2018Patton Kizzire (-17)Needed a playoff to win in just his second visit.

Angles

Waialae Country Club stretches to just 7,044 yards, one of the shortest courses on TOUR, and plays to Par-70.

Par-70 was established for the 1999 edition, the only tournament to produce a single-digit winning score (-9). The two highest winning scores since are 11-under in 2005 and 2020.

Hideki Matsuyama was the last of nine consecutive winners to play the week before at Kapalua. The last two champions did not.

Bermudagrass fairways, rough, and greens are in play again this week.

With greens averaging 7,100 square feet, Waialae has some of the largest putting surfaces on TOUR.

Experienced players flourished in this event from 1997 through 2019. All but three winners were under the age of 30. Over the last five years, only one champion has been older than 30. If you’re good enough, you’re old enough.   

The course record, 59, was set in 2017 by Justin Thomas (not entered), in Round 1. Going on to victory, he smashed the tournament scoring record by three shots (253; 27-under).

Four of the last five winners previously represented the International team in the Presidents Cup.

Murray (second attempt) ended a run of champions who needed four or more previous tries before winning.

Si Woo Kim is the only winner in the last 10 to NOT register in the top 6 in Par-4 scoring.

The last 10 winners finished in the top 18 in Proximity. None were in the top 10 of Driving Accuracy.

There has been a playoff every other year since 2016. This year suggests NO PLAYOFF!

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Robert MacIntyre (+3000): Making his second start, few in the field handle stiff breezes better than the Scotsman. A two-time winner on TOUR last year, he can play free as a bird in 2025.

Byeong Hun An (+3000): After defeating Tom Kim in a playoff in Korea last fall, the winner on the European Tour, KFT, and Challenge Tour has not won on the PGA TOUR. Falling in a playoff last year after cashing T12 in 2023, he quickly picked up what it takes to contend at Waialae.

Luke Clanton (+3000): I’ve forgotten what class he is in at Florida State, but I remember his sponsor’s exemptions. The young man usually takes advantage of the privilege and the latest evidence was cashing a share of second place at the RSM Classic last fall. Oh, and he’s ranked 87th in the OWGR!

Austin Eckroat (+3500): The winner in Mexico, his second victory of 2024, also cashed T17 at the RSM and T15 last week. Smash it, find it, and smash it again!

JT Poston (+4000): I loved him last week, but a first-round fizzle (74) knocked him out of contention. Last year, he closed with 61 to secure solo sixth, his best at Waialae.

Ben Griffin (+5000): Nobody posted more rounds in the 60s on TOUR last season.

Chris Kirk (+5500): Matt Kuchar and Russell Henley are the only players in the field who have won more cash here. Do not forget Kirk has never won the event but has hit the podium twice in his last four.

Cam Davis (+6000): Playing for the seventh consecutive season, the Aussie has cashed T32 or better in five straight.

Harry Hall (+5000), Thomas Detry (+5000), and Tom Hoge (+7000) all painted the top 10 at The Sentry last week. Detry is the only non-winner in that trio.

Course Horses Andrew Putnam (+9000), Nick Taylor (+11000), and Matt Kuchar deserve a look.

I love a nibble on Bud Cauley and Vince Whaley at +20000.

Good luck!

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

With EIGHT Signature Events spread throughout the season, player management becomes a major issue. These events do NOT include the four majors or THE PLAYERS Championship. These events do NOT include the FedExCup Playoffs. This game ends with the BMW Championship.

Sign up here

LAST WEEK – THE SENTRY

MY CHOICE: Sungjae Im – 3rd

Just Missed: Sahith Theegala, Justin Thomas, Akshay Bhatia, Jason Day

I was more surprised at the lack of results from the gang in “Just Missed” than I was riding the safe play of the Korean. Nothing like a podium finish to kick off the new campaign!

EventSelectionEarnings
The SentrySungjae Im$1,360,000
Sony Open in Hawaii  
The American Express  
Farmers Insurance Open  

THIS WEEK – Sony Open in Hawaii

The second stop on The Opening Drive in Hawaii takes the TOUR to a familiar stop. Waialae has followed Kapalua in every edition since 1999.

Two major differences this week:

  1. No Cut
  2. Field of 144 players

This is not the time to fall in love, but if you had a big week last week (Matsuyama, Morikawa, or Im) you can gamble this time.

Winning $1.566 million this week is great, but that’s almost third place for a major, FedExCup Playoff event, THE PLAYERS or seven more Signature Events.

If you’re one of those folks planning out all your plays before the season, fantastic but form, function, and injury also factor over the long haul.

Also, if you are saving your best guys for last, they all must hit perfectly. Remember Keegan Bradley at the BMW Championship last year? Was anyone saving him for that event??

Right.

My approach is more art than science. There’s an old saying that guys peak for six to eight weeks per year, usually around the big events for the biggest of players. Remember, Scottie Scheffler won just about everything last year so don’t fret if you weren’t on Matsuyama last week. Hell, he might win again at TPC Scottsdale next month or successfully defend at Riviera if it doesn’t burn down. Be safe Los Angeles and Godspeed to our firefighters.

MY CHOICE: Muscle Russell Henley

Others to consider/fade

Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, Byeong Hun An, Cam Davis,

Opening Drive 2025 – The Sentry

The Sentry

The Plantation Course at Kapalua

Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii

Welcome to 2025

For those of you who are just arriving for the first time, here’s what’s going on:

This column is me. My thoughts, my humor, my fun, my opinions.

I write Odds Outlook every Monday and Horses for Courses each Wednesday at PGATOUR.COM/Golfbet.

Please follow along at the TOUR website for all our great betting and fantasy content!

Chalk

My thoughts on the top 10 players for betting purposes:

Xander Schauffele: Slides into the role of the favorite with Scottie Scheffler missing out due to a Christmas Day accident. If you haven’t heard Scheffler is hurt, you might want to donate your money to charity or bet College Football games instead. The two-time major winner from 2024 is a former winner here and rakes on Maui.

Justin Thomas: Podium finishes before and after the birth of his first child suggests an explosive 2025. Bet. Only two-time winner in the field (2020, 2017).

Collin Morikawa: Five starts at Kapalua, T7 is the worst payday. Nobody can match that over the last five years. The next step is finding a hot putter on the weekend.

Ludvig Aberg: Knee surgery in September will be tested walking up and down the mountain this week. How important is it to go low this week? Making his debut last year, he posted 10-under 63 in Round 4 and yet only cashed T47.

Patrick Cantlay: Two top-five paydays from six starts are the highlights. Has not won on TOUR since the 2022 BMW Championship.

Sungjae Im: Super comfortable on the Pacific Rim and super-comfortable making a boatload of birdies, including a PGA TOUR record 34 at this event last year. Four starts, three top-10 paydays, and T13.

Hideki Matsuyama: His first three visits all cashed in the top five. His next four = nothing better than T13.

Sahith Theegala: I’m trying to talk myself off the ledge after leaving him off my PGA TOUR Fantasy Lineup. I’m having a terrible time rationalizing that decision. Fell one shot short of a playoff here last year after opening with 64 and closing with 63.

Viktor Hovland: Broken toe and parted ways with his swing coach made for a hectic final week of 2024.

Akshay Bhatia: Lovely outsider. Handles big ballparks and ocean breezes. T14 debut last year and fourth in The Bahamas, where he previously won an event on the KFT, in the Hero World Challenge.

Sam Burns: Joins Nick Taylor as the only two players with three starts and never hit the top 25.

Corey Conners: Never better than T18 in three visits. Putting matters in Maui.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course:The Plantation Course at Kapalua
Yards (per official scorecard):7,596
Par:73 (36-37)
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; 8,722 square feet on average; LARGEST on TOUR.
Stimpmeter:11 feet.
Rough:Celebration Bermuda at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play93/0/0.
Architect(s):Coore and Crenshaw (1999).
Defending Champion (event):Chris Kirk was listed at +12500, posted 29-under, and won by a shot (Theegala).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Justin Thomas (2020, 2017).
Course Record (last):61; Justin Thomas is the only player in the field who has posted this number. Three others are not entered/did not qualify.
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):258 (-34); Cam Smith 2022 (no longer a member on TOUR).
Fact of the Week:72 holes, no cut.
Fact of the Week II:19 players making their debut this week. The last player to win on their first attempt at Kapalua was Daniel Chopra in 2008.

Notes:

  • Field of 60.
  • Winners in calendar year 2024 and/or qualifiers for the 2024 BMW Championship are eligible.
  • The OWGR is represented by 15 of the top 20.
  • First of eight SIGNATURE EVENTS of 2024.
  • $20 million – $3.6 million – 700 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray (Rest in Peace)
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampRafa Campos (first time)
The RSM ClassicMaverick McNealy (first time)

Recent Winners – The Sentry

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2024Chris Kirk (-29)Only squared ONE BOGEY; won for the sixth time on TOUR.
2023Jon Rahm (-25)Won by two, no longer a member on TOUR.
2022Cam Smith (-34)Set the tournament scoring record, no longer a member on TOUR.
2021Harris English (-25)Won in a playoff on his second visit.
2020Justin Thomas (-14)Won a three-man playoff over Schauffele and Reed in breezy conditions.
2019Xander Schauffele     (-23)Closed with 62, tying the course record at the time, to win in his second try.
2018Dustin Johnson (-24)Winning by eight shots, he tied the margin of victory standard.

Angles

  • The Plantation Course tips at 7,596 yards, the third longest course used in 2023, and plays to Par-73.
  • The Plantation Course ranked as the easiest course on TOUR the last four seasons, playing more than three shots under par per round annually. Weather is the only deterrent to scoring.
  • The resort course features generous fairways and the largest greens complexes on TOUR.
  • Elevation changes and uneven lies will challenge players on second shots.
  • TifEagle Bermuda greens running at 11 feet will allow players to be aggressive on the short grass.
  • The last 10 winners finished in the top 16 in SG: Putting.
  • Kirk is the only winner from the last 10 to rank outside the top 10 in SG: Off the tee.
  • Kirk and English (not entered) are the only two non-major championship winners in the last decade.

Diving Deeper

Players for top 10 and top 20 action, reason to avoid, or OAD questions and answers.

Ben An: Wasn’t bothered on debut last year (solo fourth) and won in October.

Russell Henley: Save him for next week.

Tony Finau: Off-season knee surgery will keep me on the sidelines until I see evidence.

Adam Scott: Only Justin Thomas has made as many starts. Only Morikawa and JT have more top 10s (5) than the Australian (4).

Robert MacIntyre: One of 19 first-time participants. Careful.

Wyndham Clark: Closed with 63 for T29 on debut in 2024. I didn’t see any inspiration in Napa Valley (mc) or at the Hero World Challenge (T17 of 20 players).

Davis Thompson: First-timer. The Birdie machine hits it a mile. Nibble.

J.T. Poston: Likes it here. Bigger bite.

Max Greyserman: Shit-fire hot minus that elusive first win. Water is deeper in this field.

Brian Harman: Turing 38 in three weeks, his Georgia teammate won here at 38 last year. Making his fifth start, he’s hit the top five twice and never worse than T17. Interesting.

Cameron Young: Here we go again. Make a putt already.

Jason Day: Veteran loves the extra room to move it off the tee and has no problem on these greens.

Keegan Bradley: The Ryder Cup captain for 2025 at Bethpage Black has a very busy eight months in front of him. TGL, his game, and selecting his team makes a full plate.

Maverick McNealy: FINALLY. One of my favorites over the years is now healthy. Grew up on Pebble Beach.

Max Homa: The finishes might not scream PICK ME PICK ME, but he’s never posted less than 20-under in his last three visits. He likes it here. Now, about that current form…

Si Woo Kim: My buddy Jay always bets the Korean on Bermuda. A winner at Sony at The American Express in the last five years, I will let him get loose this week.

Taylor Pendrith: Another who can smash it and make a ton of birdies, the Canadian hopes to be more Hadwin than Nick Taylor.

Matt Fitzpatrick: T14 and T7 in his first two visits but has not hit the top 10 since the Memorial last June. I wonder if the problem with dialing in his new irons is still bothering him. Lovely risk-reward in a no-cut field.

Alex Noren: Debutant.

Will Zalatoris: I doubt he would fly halfway around the world to South Africa if his back was bothering him. T11 with four rounds in the 60s on his debut in 2023. Value here.

Aaron Rai: 2 gloves and zero problems tee to green. First appearance on the massive greens.

Denny McCarthy: Not sure he has enough ammo, but the large targets will create more chances to wield his INCREDIBLE flat stick.

Sepp Straka: T9 at the Hero plus T12-T21 here the last two years.

Billy Horschel: Only eight rounds in the 60s here in seven previous visits.

Eric Cole: T16 or better in three of his four last starts plus T14 on debut last year. What am I missing?

Nick Dunlap: Maker or breaker!?!? Remember, Castle Pines was a level playing field (most guys had never seen the place before the event). That’s not true this week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout: Opened his season solo second at The American Express last year. Big ask this year.

Nico Echavarria: Love it. Top 10 just in case.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

With EIGHT Signature Events spread over the season, player management becomes a major issue. These events do NOT include the four majors or THE PLAYERS Championship. These events do NOT include the FedExCup Playoffs. This game ends with the BMW Championship.

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MY CHOICE: Sungjae Im

Just Missed: Sahith Theegala, Justin Thomas, Akshay Bhatia, Jason Day

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

FedExCup Fall – Event No. 7

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Port Royal Golf Course

Southampton, Bermuda

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Butterfield Bermuda Championship tips

Win Tickets

Justin Lower (25/1): Looking for his first win on TOUR, only one of the five previous winners broke their maiden at Port Royal. Lower’s recent heat and course form pushed him to the top of my list. The co-leader after 54 holes in Cabo San Lucas last week, the 35-year-old ranked in the top 10 in Fairways, Greens in Regulation, and Putting.  Earning a share of second place racked up his third top-10 payday this season on foreign soil (T3 Vidanta Vallarta; T4 Corales Puntacana). The Ohio native, making his fourth consecutive start in Bermuda, has never missed the cut. In 12 rounds, he posted 11 loops in the 60s and owns a 67.75 scoring average. Cashing T17 on debut in 2021, he added T8 in 2022 and T20 in 2023 for an aggregate of 39-under-par.  Camilo Villegas, the 2023 champion, also finished as a co-runner-up at the World Wide Technology Championship before his victory.

Nico Echavarria (35/1): The champion three weeks ago in Japan at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP decided he was too hot to forego the rest of the FedExCup Fall. After the bye week, he returned with the rest of the TOUR to Cabo San Lucas and added another top-10 payday (T6). The 2023 Puerto Rico Open champion won for the first time navigating similar gusty conditions forecast for this week. The strength of his game is finding fairways (31st) and Greens in Regulation (33rd). With confidence at a sky-high level, the 30-year-old also has no problem making birdies (28th).

Top 10 Tickets

Lucas Glover (13/5): Four of the five previous winners were over the age of 32. The six-time winner on TOUR is the highest-ranked player in the Official World Golf Rankings entered. The forecast suggests the wind will blow all weekend so I will hitch my wagon to a proven tee-to-green player experienced feast or famine on the Port Royal layout. Half of his eight rounds are 67 or better but the other half are 70 or worse, including three rounds above par. After collecting checks of T24-T3-T3-T13 in his last four starts, I’ll gladly wade in.

Patrick Rodgers (7/2): Returning to Southampton for the first time since cashing T3 and solo fourth in 2022 and 2021, the Stanford man will not miss another chance to pad his bank account in the Atlantic Ocean. Sitting at No. 55 in the FedExCup Fall, he is comfortably in the Aon Next 10 and can turn his attention to winning in his 280th start on TOUR. The familiarity of the venue, plus he’s on form, cashing in 11 of his last 12 starts, including T24 in Cabo San Lucas, suggests he is ready to contend, and win.

Top 20 Tickets

Ryan McCormick (6/1): Veteran investors notice that the rank-and-file blow hot for patches each year. The New Jersey native withdrew from the Black Desert Championship after missing the cut in his five previous events. Flipping the switch the following week in Las Vegas, the 33-year-old rookie found something in the desert dirt of TPC Summerlin and posted T16, his first top 25 since T4 at the Myrtle Beach Classic in early May. After not making the trip to Japan, he continued his solid play at the World Wide Technology Championship. Cashing T24, he posted back-to-back top-25 paydays for the first time this season. Get hot, stay hot!

Alex Smalley (9/5): I find it impossible to ignore that the former Duke Blue Devil has never posted a round worse than 70 in three visits to Bermuda. The 12 rounds on his record show 11 have posted 69 or better, but he’s never cashed a check in the top 10. Over the last three years, the 28-year-old posted an aggregate of 33-under with finishes of T30, T11, and T12. Playing the weekend over in four consecutive events entering the week, his best result, T5 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, was also on Bermudagrass.

Port Royal Golf Course

One of only three courses on the PGA TOUR schedule that does not reach 7,000 yards, Port Royal is the shortest of the trio and remains the exact yardage and Par for the sixth consecutive year.

The standard Par-71 includes a pair of Par-3 holes on each of the nine holes, including two stretching 235 yards on the loop back to the clubhouse. The front nine duo, playing 148 and 213 yards, provides a warm-up before the meatier challenges. As a group, they rank annually in the top third of Par-3 groupings on TOUR.

The massive Bermuda greens provide ample room for recovery shots that do not find the tight fairways. Four of the five winners ranked in the top 15 GIR, and all five registered in the top 11 in Putting. Port Royal is the first event on Bermudagrass greens since the Sanderson Farms Championship at the end of September.

When the wind lies down, birdies will fill the scorecards. In 2022, Seamus Power set the tournament record for birdies with 28. Inaugural winner Brendon Todd and 2023 champion Camilo Villegas both circled 27.

Only the 2020 event played over par (71.151).

Yards (per official scorecard):6,828.
Par:71 (36-35).
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; 8,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:11.5 feet and up.
Rough:419 Bermudagrass at 2 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play87/4/7.
Architect(s):Robert Trent Jones, Sr., (1971); Roger Rulewich (2008).
Defending Champion:Camilo Villegas (-24; 260).
Multiple Champions Entered:None.
Course Record:61; Alex Noren (2023); Taylor Pendrith (2021).
Tournament Record:260; Villegas and Brendon Todd (2019).

Recent PGA TOUR Winners

2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen
Butterfield BermudaCamilo Villegas
The RSM ClassicLudvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)

Recent Winners – Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Italics – not entered/qualified this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2023Camilo Villegas (-24)Picked up his first win in NINE YEARS on TOUR and matched the tournament scoring record.
2022Seamus Power (-19)Set the tournament record by circling 28 birdies; won by a shot
2021Lucas Herbert (-15)Won for the first time on TOUR in just his 20th start. Only champion under 32 years of age.
2020Brian Gay (-15)Oldest winner at 48 years old.
2019Brendon Todd (-24)Won the inaugural event by four shots.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Internationals have won the last three tournaments after Americans won the first two editions.

Four of the five winners were 33 or older and were previous winners on TOUR. Lucas Herbert was 25 and making just his 20th start when he won for the first time on TOUR.

Every winning total has been 15-under par or lower. Making birdies and avoiding bogeys is the classic formula to contend in a shootout.

No player has won this event more than once.

The weather will play a major role in determining the champion again this year.

On the line this week for the field of 120 is a purse of $6.9 million with the winner taking home $1.242 million plus 500 FedExCup points.

The field will be cut to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes.

After four rounds in Bermuda, the TOUR wraps up the FedExCup Fall next week at The RSM Classic at Sea Island, Georgia.