
The Sentry
The Plantation Course at Kapalua
Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii
Welcome to 2025
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Chalk
My thoughts on the top 10 players for betting purposes:
Xander Schauffele: Slides into the role of the favorite with Scottie Scheffler missing out due to a Christmas Day accident. If you haven’t heard Scheffler is hurt, you might want to donate your money to charity or bet College Football games instead. The two-time major winner from 2024 is a former winner here and rakes on Maui.
Justin Thomas: Podium finishes before and after the birth of his first child suggests an explosive 2025. Bet. Only two-time winner in the field (2020, 2017).
Collin Morikawa: Five starts at Kapalua, T7 is the worst payday. Nobody can match that over the last five years. The next step is finding a hot putter on the weekend.
Ludvig Aberg: Knee surgery in September will be tested walking up and down the mountain this week. How important is it to go low this week? Making his debut last year, he posted 10-under 63 in Round 4 and yet only cashed T47.
Patrick Cantlay: Two top-five paydays from six starts are the highlights. Has not won on TOUR since the 2022 BMW Championship.
Sungjae Im: Super comfortable on the Pacific Rim and super-comfortable making a boatload of birdies, including a PGA TOUR record 34 at this event last year. Four starts, three top-10 paydays, and T13.
Hideki Matsuyama: His first three visits all cashed in the top five. His next four = nothing better than T13.
Sahith Theegala: I’m trying to talk myself off the ledge after leaving him off my PGA TOUR Fantasy Lineup. I’m having a terrible time rationalizing that decision. Fell one shot short of a playoff here last year after opening with 64 and closing with 63.
Viktor Hovland: Broken toe and parted ways with his swing coach made for a hectic final week of 2024.
Akshay Bhatia: Lovely outsider. Handles big ballparks and ocean breezes. T14 debut last year and fourth in The Bahamas, where he previously won an event on the KFT, in the Hero World Challenge.
Sam Burns: Joins Nick Taylor as the only two players with three starts and never hit the top 25.
Corey Conners: Never better than T18 in three visits. Putting matters in Maui.
NOW PLAYING:
| Host Course: | The Plantation Course at Kapalua |
| Yards (per official scorecard): | 7,596 |
| Par: | 73 (36-37) |
| Greens: | TifEagle Bermuda; 8,722 square feet on average; LARGEST on TOUR. |
| Stimpmeter: | 11 feet. |
| Rough: | Celebration Bermuda at 2.5 inches. |
| Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play | 93/0/0. |
| Architect(s): | Coore and Crenshaw (1999). |
| Defending Champion (event): | Chris Kirk was listed at +12500, posted 29-under, and won by a shot (Theegala). |
| Multiple Champion(s) Entered: | Justin Thomas (2020, 2017). |
| Course Record (last): | 61; Justin Thomas is the only player in the field who has posted this number. Three others are not entered/did not qualify. |
| 72 Hole Tournament Record (last): | 258 (-34); Cam Smith 2022 (no longer a member on TOUR). |
| Fact of the Week: | 72 holes, no cut. |
| Fact of the Week II: | 19 players making their debut this week. The last player to win on their first attempt at Kapalua was Daniel Chopra in 2008. |
Notes:
- Field of 60.
- Winners in calendar year 2024 and/or qualifiers for the 2024 BMW Championship are eligible.
- The OWGR is represented by 15 of the top 20.
- First of eight SIGNATURE EVENTS of 2024.
- $20 million – $3.6 million – 700 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.
Season Winners
2024 Season Winners
| Event | Winner |
| The Sentry | Chris Kirk |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Grayson Murray (Rest in Peace) |
| The American Express | Nick Dunlap (a) |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Matthieu Pavon (rookie) |
| AT&T Pebble Beach | Wyndham Clark (54 holes) |
| WM Phoenix Open | Nick Taylor |
| The Genesis Invitational | Hideki Matsuyama |
| Mexico Open at Vidanta | Jake Knapp (rookie) |
| Cognizant Classic | Austin Eckroat (first time) |
| Arnold Palmer Invitational | Scottie Scheffler |
| THE PLAYERS Championship | Scottie Scheffler (2) |
| Valspar Championship | Peter Malnati |
| Texas Children’s Houston Open | Stephan Jaeger (first time) |
| Valero Texas Open | Akshay Bhatia |
| 88th Masters Tournament | Scottie Scheffler (3) |
| RBC Heritage | Scottie Scheffler (4) |
| Zurich Classic | Rory McIlroy & Shane Lowry |
| THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson | Taylor Pendrith (first time) |
| Wells Fargo Championship | Rory McIlroy (2) |
| 106th PGA Championship | Xander Schauffele |
| Charles Schwab Challenge | Davis Riley |
| RBC Canadian Open | Robert MacIntyre (first time) |
| The 49th Memorial Tournament | Scottie Scheffler (5) |
| 124th United States Open | Bryson DeChambeau |
| Travelers Championship | Scottie Scheffler (6) |
| Rocket Mortgage Classic | Cam Davis |
| John Deere Classic | Davis Thompson (first time) |
| Genesis Scottish Open | Robert MacIntyre (2) |
| 152nd Open Championship | Xander Schauffele (2) |
| 3M Open | Jhonattan Vegas |
| 2024 Paris Olympics | Scottie Scheffler (7) |
| 3M Open | Jhonattan Vegas |
| Wyndham Championship | Aaron Rai (first time) |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship | Hideki Matsuyama (2) |
| BMW Championship | Keegan Bradley |
| The TOUR Championship | Scottie Scheffler (8) |
| FedEx Cup Fall | |
| Procore Championship | Patton Kizzire |
| Sanderson Farms Championship | Kevin Yu (first time) |
| Black Desert Championship | Matt McCarty (first time) |
| Shriners Children’s Open | JT Poston |
| ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP | Nico Echavarria |
| World Wide Technology Champ | Austin Eckroat (2) |
| Butterfield Bermuda Champ | Rafa Campos (first time) |
| The RSM Classic | Maverick McNealy (first time) |
Recent Winners – The Sentry
Italics – not entered this week.
| Year | Winner | Notes |
| 2024 | Chris Kirk (-29) | Only squared ONE BOGEY; won for the sixth time on TOUR. |
| 2023 | Jon Rahm (-25) | Won by two, no longer a member on TOUR. |
| 2022 | Cam Smith (-34) | Set the tournament scoring record, no longer a member on TOUR. |
| 2021 | Harris English (-25) | Won in a playoff on his second visit. |
| 2020 | Justin Thomas (-14) | Won a three-man playoff over Schauffele and Reed in breezy conditions. |
| 2019 | Xander Schauffele (-23) | Closed with 62, tying the course record at the time, to win in his second try. |
| 2018 | Dustin Johnson (-24) | Winning by eight shots, he tied the margin of victory standard. |
Angles
- The Plantation Course tips at 7,596 yards, the third longest course used in 2023, and plays to Par-73.
- The Plantation Course ranked as the easiest course on TOUR the last four seasons, playing more than three shots under par per round annually. Weather is the only deterrent to scoring.
- The resort course features generous fairways and the largest greens complexes on TOUR.
- Elevation changes and uneven lies will challenge players on second shots.
- TifEagle Bermuda greens running at 11 feet will allow players to be aggressive on the short grass.
- The last 10 winners finished in the top 16 in SG: Putting.
- Kirk is the only winner from the last 10 to rank outside the top 10 in SG: Off the tee.
- Kirk and English (not entered) are the only two non-major championship winners in the last decade.
Diving Deeper
Players for top 10 and top 20 action, reason to avoid, or OAD questions and answers.
Ben An: Wasn’t bothered on debut last year (solo fourth) and won in October.
Russell Henley: Save him for next week.
Tony Finau: Off-season knee surgery will keep me on the sidelines until I see evidence.
Adam Scott: Only Justin Thomas has made as many starts. Only Morikawa and JT have more top 10s (5) than the Australian (4).
Robert MacIntyre: One of 19 first-time participants. Careful.
Wyndham Clark: Closed with 63 for T29 on debut in 2024. I didn’t see any inspiration in Napa Valley (mc) or at the Hero World Challenge (T17 of 20 players).
Davis Thompson: First-timer. The Birdie machine hits it a mile. Nibble.
J.T. Poston: Likes it here. Bigger bite.
Max Greyserman: Shit-fire hot minus that elusive first win. Water is deeper in this field.
Brian Harman: Turing 38 in three weeks, his Georgia teammate won here at 38 last year. Making his fifth start, he’s hit the top five twice and never worse than T17. Interesting.
Cameron Young: Here we go again. Make a putt already.
Jason Day: Veteran loves the extra room to move it off the tee and has no problem on these greens.
Keegan Bradley: The Ryder Cup captain for 2025 at Bethpage Black has a very busy eight months in front of him. TGL, his game, and selecting his team makes a full plate.
Maverick McNealy: FINALLY. One of my favorites over the years is now healthy. Grew up on Pebble Beach.
Max Homa: The finishes might not scream PICK ME PICK ME, but he’s never posted less than 20-under in his last three visits. He likes it here. Now, about that current form…
Si Woo Kim: My buddy Jay always bets the Korean on Bermuda. A winner at Sony at The American Express in the last five years, I will let him get loose this week.
Taylor Pendrith: Another who can smash it and make a ton of birdies, the Canadian hopes to be more Hadwin than Nick Taylor.
Matt Fitzpatrick: T14 and T7 in his first two visits but has not hit the top 10 since the Memorial last June. I wonder if the problem with dialing in his new irons is still bothering him. Lovely risk-reward in a no-cut field.
Alex Noren: Debutant.
Will Zalatoris: I doubt he would fly halfway around the world to South Africa if his back was bothering him. T11 with four rounds in the 60s on his debut in 2023. Value here.
Aaron Rai: 2 gloves and zero problems tee to green. First appearance on the massive greens.
Denny McCarthy: Not sure he has enough ammo, but the large targets will create more chances to wield his INCREDIBLE flat stick.
Sepp Straka: T9 at the Hero plus T12-T21 here the last two years.
Billy Horschel: Only eight rounds in the 60s here in seven previous visits.
Eric Cole: T16 or better in three of his four last starts plus T14 on debut last year. What am I missing?
Nick Dunlap: Maker or breaker!?!? Remember, Castle Pines was a level playing field (most guys had never seen the place before the event). That’s not true this week.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: Opened his season solo second at The American Express last year. Big ask this year.
Nico Echavarria: Love it. Top 10 just in case.
One and Done – Spotter’s Game
1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).
1 use per year.
With EIGHT Signature Events spread over the season, player management becomes a major issue. These events do NOT include the four majors or THE PLAYERS Championship. These events do NOT include the FedExCup Playoffs. This game ends with the BMW Championship.
This is a bonus week as there is NO CUT. Everyone gets a paycheck!
MY CHOICE: Sungjae Im
Just Missed: Sahith Theegala, Justin Thomas, Akshay Bhatia, Jason Day



