Valspar Championship Betting Angles

March 18, 2026March 18, 2026 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort

Copperhead Course

Palm Harbor, Florida

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Thoughts on Valspar

It’s difficult. Really difficult.

The flat tracks of PGA National, Bay Hill, and TPC Sawgrass have been replaced with oak-lined rolling hills and significant elevation changes.

The last four winners have all ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting and top 15 Greens in Regulation.

Par is a decent score again this week. Exactly five players have posted 10-under or better over the last three events.

Five.

This is not a hit-and-giggle or walk in the park after THE PLAYERS Championship. The cut during the last three editions was 2-over, even, and 1-over.

Survive and advance and enjoy the third-hardest three-hole closing stretch on TOUR, “The Snake Pit”.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Copperhead Course
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,352.
Par:	71 (35-36).
Greens:	Poa Trivialis overseed; TifEagle Bermuda; 5,822 square feet.
Stimpmeter:	12-plus feet.
Rough:	Overseeded ryegrass 3.75 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	74/8/9.
Architect(s):	Larry Packard (1971).
Defending Champion (event):	Viktor Hovland (-11).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	None.
Course Record:	61; Matt NeSmith (Round 2, 2022) & Padraig Harrington (Round 1, 2012). Neither player is in the field this week.
Tournament Scoring Record	267 (-17); Sam Burns (not entered), 2022.
Fact of the Week:	Since moving to March on the schedule in 2007, the winning margin has been two or fewer shots in every year save 2022.
Fact of the Week II:	The course has five Par-3 holes and three Par-5 holes.

Notes:

Field of 135.
No significant course changes for 2026.
The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
$9.1 million – $1.638 million – 500 FedExCup points.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	No Event
Sony Open in Hawaii	Chris Gotterup
The American Express	Scottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance Open	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Chris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Collin Morikawa
Cognizant Classic	Nico Echavarria
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Akshay Bhatia
THE PLAYERS Championship	Cameron Young

2025 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Hideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in Hawaii	Nick Taylor
The American Express	Sepp Straka
Farmers Insurance Open	Harris English
AT&T Pebble Beach	Rory McIlroy
WM Phoenix Open	Thomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis Invitational	Ludvig Aberg
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Brian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant Classic	Joe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Russell Henley
Puerto Rico Open	Karl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Rory McIlroy
Valspar Championship	Viktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston Open	Min Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas Open	Brian Harman
88^th Masters Tournament	Rory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC Heritage	Justin Thomas
Zurich Classic	Ben Griffin & Andrew Novak (first time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson	Scottie Scheffler
Truist Championship	Sepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One Flight	Ryan Fox
106^th PGA Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab Challenge	Ben Griffin (2)
The 50^th Memorial Tournament	Scottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian Open	Ryan Fox (2)
124^th United States Open	J.J. Spaun
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Aldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere Classic	Brian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish Open	Chris Gotterup
ISCO Championship	William Mouw (first time)
152^nd Open Championship	Scottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda Championship	Ryan Gerard (first time)
3M Open	Kurt Kitayama
Wyndham Championship	Cameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Justin Rose
BMW Championship	Scottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR Championship	Tommy Fleetwood (first time)

FedEx Cup Fall
Procore Championship	Scottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms Championship	Steven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert Championship	Michael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent Championship	Xander Schauffele
World Wide Technology Champ	Ben Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda Champ	Adam Schenk (first time)
The RSM Classic	Sami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – Valspar Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2025	Viktor Hovland (-11)	Broke a three-way tie on 7-under after 54 holes with a final round 67 to defeat Justin Thomas by a shot.
2024	Peter Malnati (-12)	Shot a final round 67 to win for the second time on TOUR.
2023	Taylor Moore (-10)	The first of three consecutive champions to post 67 in the final round. Defeated Adam Schenk by one shot.
2022	Sam Burns (-17)	Defeated Davis Riley in a playoff to successfully defend his title. His tournament scoring record was one of many broken in PERFECT, windless weather.
2021	Sam Burns (-17)	The event finished in May and Burns won on TOUR for the first time.
2019	Paul Casey (-8)	The Englishman became the last winner in single digits.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

LAST WEEK – THE PLAYERS Championship

MY CHOICE: Collin Morikawa – WD

I have no words.

Missing the cut is one thing. Quitting after one hole is another. Glad to see the online sportsbooks refund folks’ money. That was the right thing to do.

As for One and Done, if you tee it, you played. It sucks, but it’s the right call.

Nobody said you didn’t need a little luck in life, but I feel for the McIlroy/Morikawa contingent the last two weeks. Go buy a lottery ticket or two and see if Karma has returned.

Whatever.

Event	Selection	Place	Earnings

Sony Open in Hawaii	Robert MacIntyre	T4	409,500
The American Express	Ben Griffin	T24	81,420
Farmers Insurance	Jason Day	T38	41,760
WM Phoenix Open	Sahith Theegala	T18	122,720
AT&T Pebble Beach	Patrick Cantlay	T14	342,500
The Genesis Invitational	Tommy Fleetwood	T7	603,200
Cognizant Classic	Daniel Berger	T32	54,816
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Scottie Scheffler	T24	157,000
THE PLAYERS	Collin Morikawa	WD	0

THIS WEEK – Valspar Championship

Xander Schauffele will be on my short list of TWO for the U.S. Open. Brooks Koepka is the defending champion at Shinnecock Hills.

Justin Thomas makes sense this week, but I am not taking my chances on a guy who has just returned from back surgery.

Corey Conners has two wins at Valero, so he stays in the stable.

The Hojgaards have never made a cut here.

Jordan Spieth – Colonial or Augusta.

MY CHOICE: Jacob Bridgeman

Proven in Florida, proven in California.

He played from the final group in 2025 and secured third.

His form is T18 or better in every event this year.

LFG.

Others to consider

Viktor Hovland, Sahith Theegala, Lucas Glover, Billy Horschel, Ryo Hisatsune

Recent Form at Valspar

2025	2024	2023
Viktor Hovland (-11)	Peter Malnati (-12)	Taylor Moore (-10)
wins by 1 (JT)	wins by 2 (Cam Young)	wins by 1 (Schenk)
Par 71 – 7,352 yds	Par 71 – 7,340 yds	Par 71 – 7,340 yds
156 players	156 players	144 players

02 Justin Thomas -10	T3 Chancler Phillips -9	02 Adam Schenk -9
03 Jacob Bridgeman -9	T3 Mackenzie Hughes	T3 Jordan Spieth -8
T4 Bud Cauley -8	T5 Adam Hadwin -8	T7 Webb Simpson -4
T4 Ryo Hisatsune	T5 Xander Schauffele	T7 Matt Wallace
T4 Billy Horschel	T9 C Bezuidenhout -7	T10 Justin Thomas -3
07 Davis Riley -7	11 Lucas Glover -6	T10 Nick Taylor
T8 Seamus Power -6	T12 Billy Horschel -5	T10 Patton Kizzire
T8 Lucas Glover	T12 Taylor Moore	T10 Zac Blair
T8 Corey Conners	T12 Kevin Roy	T19 Davis Riley -1
T12 Eric Cole -5	T17 Matt Wallace -4	T19 Denny McCarthy
T12 Xander Schauffele	T17 Akshay Bhatia	T27 Chad Ramey E
T12 Ricky Castillo	T17 Ben Griffin	T27 Alex Smalley
T16 Matt McCarty -4	T17 Keith Mitchell	T27 Kevin Streelman
T22 R N P -3	T17 Matti Schmid	T27 Stephan Jaeger
T22 Emiliano Grillo	T17 Andrew Novak	T27 Andrew Novak
T22 Joe Highsmith	T26 Seamus Power -3
T22 Jeremy Paul	T26 Lee Hodges
	T26 Kevin Streelman

THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Angles

March 11, 2026 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass

Stadium Course

Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

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Thoughts on The Chalk:

Schefffler, fade at your own peril. He will figure it out. I am seriously considering changing my Expert’s Picks lineup and will make a last-minute decision about donning his as my Captain.

McIlroy arrived on Wednesday. In a field this deep and on a track this demanding, at BEST, he will be on my bench.

Fleetwood’s 70.63 scoring average here is top five.

Morikawa fits to a T. There’s a reason EVERYONE is on him this week. Sometimes EVERYONE is right.

Si Woo Kim is on fire and a previous winner. Leads the TOUR in Ball-Striking.

Ludvig Aberg is brewing.

Bhatia will attempt to join Scheffler as the only recent player to win at Bay Hill and follow up with a victory at TPC Sawgrass.

I can’t get away from Min Woo Lee and Rickie Fowler

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	TPC Sawgrass
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,352
Par:	72 (36-36).
Greens:	TifEagle Bermuda; 5,500 square feet.
Stimpmeter:	13-plus feet.
Rough:	Overseeded ryegrass was mowed Sunday at 4.5 inches. #THICC
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	94/18/17
Architect(s):	Pete Dye (1980; 2016).
Defending Champion (event):	Rory McIlroy (-12)
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	McIlroy (2019, 2025); Scheffler (2024, 2022).
Youngest Winner:	Si Woo Kim, 17.
Oldest Winner:	Fred Fuk, 48.
Course Record:	62; Justin Thomas (Round 2, 2025); Tom Hoge (Round 3, 2023).
Tournament Scoring Record	264; Greg Norman (-24, 1994).
72 Hole Tournament Record (post 2015 switch to TifEagle):	268; Scottie Scheffler (-20, 2024).
Fact of the Week:	7.4 is the average attempts for winners.
Fact of the Week II:	Justin Thomas made 11 birdies to tie the course record last year.

Notes:

Field of 123.
The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
The deepest field in golf, no amateurs.
$25 million – $4.5 million – 750 FedExCup points.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	No Event
Sony Open in Hawaii	Chris Gotterup
The American Express	Scottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance Open	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Chris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Collin Morikawa
Cognizant Classic	Nico Echavarria
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Akshay Bhatia

2025 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Hideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in Hawaii	Nick Taylor
The American Express	Sepp Straka
Farmers Insurance Open	Harris English
AT&T Pebble Beach	Rory McIlroy
WM Phoenix Open	Thomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis Invitational	Ludvig Aberg
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Brian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant Classic	Joe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Russell Henley
Puerto Rico Open	Karl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Rory McIlroy
Valspar Championship	Viktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston Open	Min Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas Open	Brian Harman
88^th Masters Tournament	Rory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC Heritage	Justin Thomas
Zurich Classic	Ben Griffin & Andrew Novak (first time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson	Scottie Scheffler
Truist Championship	Sepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One Flight	Ryan Fox
106^th PGA Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab Challenge	Ben Griffin (2)
The 50^th Memorial Tournament	Scottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian Open	Ryan Fox (2)
124^th United States Open	J.J. Spaun
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Aldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere Classic	Brian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish Open	Chris Gotterup
ISCO Championship	William Mouw (first time)
152^nd Open Championship	Scottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda Championship	Ryan Gerard (first time)
3M Open	Kurt Kitayama
Wyndham Championship	Cameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Justin Rose
BMW Championship	Scottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR Championship	Tommy Fleetwood (first time)

FedEx Cup Fall
Procore Championship	Scottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms Championship	Steven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert Championship	Michael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent Championship	Xander Schauffele
World Wide Technology Champ	Ben Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda Champ	Adam Schenk (first time)
The RSM Classic	Sami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – THE PLAYERS Championship

Italics – not entered this week; March winners only.

Year	Winner	Notes
2025	Rory McIlroy (-12)	Defeated J.J. Spaun in a three-hole aggregate playoff to win for the second time.
2024	Scottie Scheffler (-20)	Becomes the first player EVER to defend the title.
2023	Scottie Scheffler (-17)	Won by five shots in his third attempt.
2022	Cameron Smith (-14)	Needed a Monay finish and closed with 66 to come back from two shots and win.
2021	Justin Thomas (-14)	Posted 64-68, tying the lowest 36-hole aggregate to win by a shot.
2019	Rory McIlroy (-13)	Chased down Jon Rahm on Sunday to win the first event in the return to March.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

LAST WEEK – Arnold Palmer Invitational

MY CHOICE: Scottie Scheffler – T24

Oh, Daniel Berger was THIS week, my bad.

Also, how f*cking stupid am I? Don’t answer that…

Why not wait for Scheffler to get hot, THEN play him?

I’m so bad at this.

Event	Selection	Place	Earnings

Sony Open in Hawaii	Robert MacIntyre	T4	409,500
The American Express	Ben Griffin	T24	81,420
Farmers Insurance	Jason Day	T38	41,760
WM Phoenix Open	Sahith Theegala	T18	122,720
AT&T Pebble Beach	Patrick Cantlay	T14	342,500
The Genesis Invitational	Tommy Fleetwood	T7	603,200
Cognizant Classic	Daniel Berger	T32	54,816
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Scottie Scheffler	T24	157,000

THIS WEEK – THE PLAYERS

It’s the biggest prize purse of the season.

Time to get it right.

The time for dad-to-be Collin Morikawa is now.

MY CHOICE: Collin Morikawa

Others to consider

Si Woo Kim, Ludvig Aberg, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry

Longshots

Rickie Fowler, Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott, Corey Conners

Horses for Courses

Players	Top	Scr	Notes
(cuts made/starts)	10	Avg

Scottie Scheffler (5/6)	2	69.89	T20-WIN-WIN last 3
Rory McIlroy (10/16)	5	71.15	2 wins in last six visits
Tommy Fleetwood (8/9)	2	70.63	No top 10 in 6 years
Justin Rose (12/21)	3	71.81	MC-MC-T6 L3Y
Collin Morikawa (5/6)	1	71.11	3 straight; T10 ’25 best w/ 77

Chris Gotterup (0/1)	0	73.00	MC 73-73
Russell Henley (7/13)	0	71.67	T30 in 3 of last 4; T13 best
Robert MacIntyre (1/3)	1	72.13	Solo 9th ’25; all 4 rds 72 >
Xander Schauffele (5/8)	2	71.32	72-T2-T19 L3Y
JJ Spaun (3/7)	1	72.13	P2 ’25 – T64 ’24

Ben Griffin (1/3)	0	71.63	T35 2023
Hideki Matsuyama (8/11)	4	70.50	MC-T6-5th L3Y; T23 worst
Sepp Straka (5/6)	1	71.11	T14-T16-T65-T9 last 4
Justin Thomas (10/11)	2	70.86	2021 winner; T33 best since
Harris English (7/12)	0	72.80	T30-T19 L2Y; 7 –> MC before
Alex Noren (4/7)	1	71.27	T19-MC-T26; T10 debut best
Viktor Hovland (4/6)	2	71.25	MC-T62-T3-T9-MC
Keegan Bradley (10/15)	2	71.65	T20-MC-MC-5TH L4Y
Jacob Bridgeman			First Appearance
Cameron Young (3/4)	0	72.43	Only 2 rounds in the 60s; T51 best
Matt Fitzpatrick (5/10)	2	71.38	MC-5TH-MC-MC-T9 L5
Ludvig Aberg (1/2)	1	70.00	MC-8TH
Maverick McNealy (3/5)	1	72.50	MC-T9-T60-T46-MC; 3 of 16 60s
Ryan Gerard (1/1)	0	72.00	Sat T14 after 54 holes before 78 Sunday (T42)
Si Woo Kim (9/10)	3	70.67	2017 winner at 21; T6 2024; never MC here
Sam Burns (4/6)	0	72.13	2 of 16 rds in 60s; T26 best
Kurt Kitayama (2/3)	0	71.40	T33-T19-MC
Patrick Cantlay (6/9)	0	71.73	T12-T68-T19; 2 of his best L3Y
Shane Lowry (8/11)	1	71.09	T20-T19-T35-T13-8th last five
Min Woo Lee (3/3)	1	70.83	T20-T54-T6; Final Group 2023
Jason Day (10/14)	4	70.86	2016 winner; T35-T19
Players	Top	Scr	TPC Sawgrass Notes/Best Performances
(cuts made/starts)	10	Avg
Corey Conners (6/7)	2	70.55	T6-T13-mc-T26-7th
Akshay Bhatia (1/2)	1	70.33	T3-MC
Matt McCarty (1/1)	0	71.00	3 rounds of 70 or better in tough conditions
Ryan Fox (2/3)	0	71.20	T20-mc-T27
Andrew Novak (0/3)	0	74.83	6 of 7 rounds 74 or worse
Jake Knapp (2/2)	0	70.75	T12-T45; All 8 rounds 73 or better
Sam Stevens (0/2)	0	73.75	74-72; 73-76
Pierceson Coody			First Appearance
Michael Kim (1/5)	0	74.42	MC last four
Michael Thorbjornsen			First Appearance
Adam Scott (19/24)	4	71.41	2004 winner; T45 best in last 5
Brian Harman (10/14)	4	71.68	T2 2024; T3 2021
Nicolai Hojgaard (0/2)		73.75	73-73; 73-76
Nick Taylor (6/9)	0	72.04	T26 best in last 5
Harry Hall (0/2)			75-70; 77-74
Daniel Berger (8/9)	2	71.27	8 straight; T20 2025
Taylor Pendrith (3/4)	0	72.21	T13 2022 debut best
Ryo Hisatsune (0-2)		72.50	72-74; 70-74
JT Poston (5/7)	0	71.80	T33-T45 L2Y; T22 2019 debut best
Rickie Fowler (9/15)	2	72.09	2015 winner; T71-T68-T13 L3Y
Sungjae Im (6/7)	1	71.36	T61-T31-T6-T55-T17

Players	Top	Scr	Notes/Best Performances
	10	Avg
Aaron Rai (3/3)	0	70.58	T14-T35-T19
C Bezuidenhout (3/4)	0	70.79	MC-T13-T13-T41
Brian Campbell (0/1)			74-71
Ricky Castillo (0/1)			70-74
Bud Cauley (2/5)	1	72.14	T6 2025 first visit since 2019
Wyndham Clark (2/6)	1	71.15	WD-T2-T27-MC-MC-DQ
Eric Cole (1/3)	0	72.13	MC-MC-T27
Lucas Glover (5/6)	0	71.05	4 straight; T11 2024 best
Cam Davis (1/5)	1	74.50	T6 2023
Zecheng Dou			First Appearance
	Top	Scr
Players	10	Avg
Nico Echavarria (0/3)		73.83	70 or worse in 6 rounds
AJ Ewart			First Appearance
Tony Finau (5/10)	0	72.08	T19 2023 best
Steven Fisk			First Appearance
Emiliano Grillo (5/9)	0	72.32	11th 2017
Garrick Higgo (1/3)	0	72.29	WD-T44-MC
Joe Highsmith (1/1)	0	71.00	3 rounds of 72 or better
Lee Hodges (2/3)	0	73.20	T35-MC-T70 L3Y
Rico Hoey (1/1)	0	71.50	T33 debut
Tom Hoge (7/7)	2	70.70	T3-T54-T3; 7 straight
Rasmus Hojgaard (0/1)	0	76.00	72-80 MC
Max Homa (3/5)	1	71.63	MC-T64-T6-T13-MC
Mark Hubbard (3/5)	0	72.36	MC-T31-T35-MC-MC
Mackenzie Hughes (4/7)	0	72.10	MC 4 of the last 5 (T26)
Stephan Jaeger (2/4)	0	72.08	T20-MC-T44-MC
Takumi Kanaya			First Appearance
SH Kim (0/2)		74.50	74-71; 77-76
Chris Kirk (10/14)	0	71.66	T12 2017 best; T42-T26 L2
Brooks Koepka (4/6)	0	71.70	First Appearance since 2022 MC
Haotong Li (0/2)			First Appearance since 2019 MC
Denny McCarthy (6/6)	0	71.21	T14-T35-T13 L3Y
Max McGreevey (1/2)	0	73.67	T20-MC; 69-89 debut
Mac Meissner (1/1)	0	72.00	T42 2025
Keith Mitchell (5/6)	0	72.04	T13 2022
Taylor Moore (3/4)	0	71.79	T33-T31-T35-MC
William Mouw			First Appearance
Thorbjorn Olesen (1/2)	0	72.17	T41 2019 last, best
Matthieu Pavon (1/2)	0	73.00	T54-MC
Marco Penge			First Appearance
Chandler Philips (1/1)	0	73.50	T61 opened with 68
Aldrich Potgieter (0/1)			74-71
Andrew Putnam (1/6)	0	73.21	53rd 2024
Chad Ramey (1/3)	0	72.38	MC-MC-T27; FRL 2023
Kristoffer Reitan			First Appearance
Davis Riley (1/3)	0	72.88	T38-MC-MC
Patrick Rodgers (2/9)	0	73.43	MC last four
Kevin Roy (0/1)		73.50	77-70 2025
Adam Schenk (1/5)	0	72.33	T19 2024
Matti Schmid (1/2)	0	71.00	MC-T26
Alex Smalley (2/3)	0	71.90	T14-MC-T65
Jordan Smith			First Appearance
Austin Smotherman (1/1)	0	71.00	T35 2023
Jordan Spieth (5/11)	1	71.91	T4 2014 debut; 59th-MC-T19 L3Y
Sahith Theegala (3/4)	1	72.57	T52-T9-74-MC
Davis Thompson (2/3)	1	71.80	T10-MC-T68
Sami Valimaki (2/2)	0	72.88	T69-T54
Erik van Rooyen (1/3)	0	71.50	T13 2022
Jhonattan Vegas (7/11)	2	72.14	T3 2019; T7 2012; 60th best last 4
Karl Vilips	0	75.00	72-78 MC 2025
Danny Walker (1/1)	1	69.75	70-66-70 last 54 for T6 debut
Vince Whaley (0/1)		72.50	73-72
Gary Woodland (6/13)	0	72.84	T54 best in last 5 years
Sudarshan Yellamaraju			First Appearance
Keivn Yu (0/2)		73.75	73 is best

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Angles

March 4, 2026 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Orlando, Florida

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Odds Outlook

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NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,466
Par:	72 (36-36).
Greens:	TifEagle Bermuda; 7,500 square feet.
Stimpmeter:	13-plus feet.
Rough:	Overseeded ryegrass at FOUR inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	84/8/9
Architect(s):	Dick Wilson (1961); Arnold Palmer (2009; 2016).
Defending Champion (event):	Russell Henley (-11).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Scheffler (2024, 2022).
Course Record:	62; Adam Scott (2014, Bentgrass greens) is the only player to post this total since 1984.
72 Hole Tournament Record (post 2016 switch to TifEagle):	270; Rory McIlroy (-18, 2018).
Fact of the Week:	The last 10 winners have produced seven champions 30 or younger.
Fact of the Week II:	The last five champions are from the USA.

Hot weather will make the ball go far this week, but Bay Hill has played over par for the last NINE seasons, regardless of the composition of the field.

The TifEagle Bermuda greens, which have not been overseeded, will be the best and fastest on TOUR yet. Big greens are surrounded by big penalty areas, so don’t be surprised to see balls, especially from the rough, finding the safest tiers on the putting surfaces. Lag putting will be a recipe for success this week.

Notes:

Field of 72.
The second of three Legacy Signature Events, the API cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 50 and ties play the weekend.
The OWGR is represented by 41 of the top 50, BUT 28 of the top 30.
$20 million – $4 million – 700 FedExCup points.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	No Event
Sony Open in Hawaii	Chris Gotterup
The American Express	Scottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance Open	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Chris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Collin Morikawa
Cognizant Classic	Nico Echavarria

2025 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Hideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in Hawaii	Nick Taylor
The American Express	Sepp Straka
Farmers Insurance Open	Harris English
AT&T Pebble Beach	Rory McIlroy
WM Phoenix Open	Thomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis Invitational	Ludvig Aberg
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Brian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant Classic	Joe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Russell Henley
Puerto Rico Open	Karl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Rory McIlroy
Valspar Championship	Viktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston Open	Min Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas Open	Brian Harman
88^th Masters Tournament	Rory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC Heritage	Justin Thomas
Zurich Classic	Ben Griffin & Andrew Novak (first time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson	Scottie Scheffler
Truist Championship	Sepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One Flight	Ryan Fox
106^th PGA Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab Challenge	Ben Griffin (2)
The 50^th Memorial Tournament	Scottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian Open	Ryan Fox (2)
124^th United States Open	J.J. Spaun
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Aldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere Classic	Brian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish Open	Chris Gotterup
ISCO Championship	William Mouw (first time)
152^nd Open Championship	Scottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda Championship	Ryan Gerard (first time)
3M Open	Kurt Kitayama
Wyndham Championship	Cameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Justin Rose
BMW Championship	Scottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR Championship	Tommy Fleetwood (first time)

FedEx Cup Fall
Procore Championship	Scottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms Championship	Steven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert Championship	Michael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent Championship	Xander Schauffele
World Wide Technology Champ	Ben Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda Champ	Adam Schenk (first time)
The RSM Classic	Sami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – Arnold Palmer Invitational

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2025	Russell Henley (-11)	Followed T4 in 2024 with his fifth win on TOUR. Beat Morikawa by a shot in the final group.
2024	Scottie Scheffler (-15)	Second title in three years. Won by five shots.
2023	Kurt Kitayama (-9)	First debut winner since 1990.
2022	Scottie Scheffler (-5)	One of four players broke par in the final round. Course played No. 1 most difficult on TOUR in 2022.
2021	Bryson DeChambeau (-11)	First of five straight USA-USA-USA winners.

Notables

Adam Scott is the only player since 1985 to post 62 (2014) and is one of four to share the course record.
Tiger Woods (not entered) has won this event eight times, the most in history. Scheffler is the only multiple winner in the 2026 field.
The fairways are 30 yards wide, two yards wider on average than last week at PGA National and overseeded.
None of the Par-5 holes plays longer than 590 yards.
Since 2016, only Scheffler in 2024 ranked OUTSIDE the top SIX in Par-3 scoring. All four Par-3 holes extend 199 yards or longer.
The last seven winners have ranked in the top 10 in Greens in Regulation.
After adding TifEagle greens for 2016, nine of 10 winners have ranked in the top 15 in SG: Putting, and all were T21 or better. No weaknesses allowed in the bag this week!

LAST WEEK – Cognizant Classic

MY CHOICE: Daniel Berger – T32

Opening with 67, I was encouraged. After two middle rounds of 71-71, I was DISCOURAGED.

After watching Lowry capitulate in the final three holes with a three-shot lead, T32 is easier to stomach than losing $1 million in 30 minutes.

Event	Selection	Place	Earnings

Sony Open in Hawaii	Robert MacIntyre	T4	409,500
The American Express	Ben Griffin	T24	81,420
Farmers Insurance	Jason Day	T38	41,760
WM Phoenix Open	Sahith Theegala	T18	122,720
AT&T Pebble Beach	Patrick Cantlay	T14	342,500
The Genesis Invitational	Tommy Fleetwood	T7	603,200
Cognizant Classic	Daniel Berger	T32	54,816

THIS WEEK – Arnold Palmer Invitational

The third of eight Signature Events precedes the biggest payday in golf, THE PLAYERS Championship next week in Ponte Vedra Beach. This week and next will require a podium finish or victory to absorb the dog days of summer.

These are the events to release the hounds and shoot your shot with the biggest and the baddest available. Of the two events spread over the next two weeks, Bay Hill is the more “predictable” of the bunch. TPC Sawgrass, minus the recent McIlroy/Scheffler domination, has produced a cadre of winners, which appeared to be drawn out of a hat.

Also, there is a cut in both events, which SHOULD NOT bother the world’s best, but here we are.

Remember, LIV players, if that is your angle, return for the Masters, PGA Championship, and Open Championship.

MY CHOICE: Scottie Scheffler

Time to kick it into gear for the No. 1 player in the world.

No more farting around on Thursday.

No more Poa annua to piss him off.

The familiarity of Bermuda and two previous victories on a track he loves (nothing worse than T15 in five starts) is the recipe I am looking for this week.

I would not talk you out of playing McIlroy, but this comes down to preference, and I will ride the steadier of the two on a course where hazards do affect play.

I will also remind you that the Truist Championship returns to Quail Hollow Club in May. McIlroy has won that event, a Signature Event, approximately 49,390 times. See you in May, Rors!

Others to consider

Jake Knapp, Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood

Longshots

Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Ryan Fox

Horses for Courses

Players	Top	Top	Scr	Bay Hill HFC Finishes/Notes
(cuts made/starts)	10	25	Avg

Scottie Scheffler (5/5)	3	5	70.60	T15 is his worst payday; Only 2x winner playing.
Rory McIlroy (11/11)	6	10	70.50	8 rounds of 66 or better; 2018 winner.
Tommy Fleetwood (7/9)	3	5	71.91	T11 2025; T3 2019
Justin Rose (13/20)	6	9	71.70	T8 2025 followed 4 -> MC
Collin Morikawa (3/5)	2	2	72.13	2nd 2025 after 2-> MC; T9 2020

Chris Gotterup				First Appearance
Russell Henley (6/9)	2	3	71.87	2025 winner followed T4; 5 –>
Robert MacIntyre (2/2)	0	1	71.75	T11, T36 L2Y
Xander Schauffele (4/4)	0	2	72.63	Best payday T24 2020
JJ Spaun (4/5)	0	0	73.11	T31 2025 best

Ben Griffin (2/2)	0	1	72.13	T45-T14 L2Y
Hideki Matsuyama (10/11)	1	6	71.86	Only top 10 2016 (T6); T22-T12 L2Y
Sepp Straka (2/6)	1	1	73.69	T5 2025 with 1st Rd 77!!!
Justin Thomas (4/4)	0	2	71.56	T12 2024 best; T36 2025
Harris English (9/13)	2	5	72.30	6–> busted 2025; T2 2023, T9 2020
Alex Noren (4/5)	0	0	72.72	T36 best; First visit since 2023 (T61)
Viktor Hovland (6/7)	2	2	72.35	6–> busted 2025; T10 2023, T2 2022
Keegan Bradley (13/14)	5	6	71.50	T11 or better 4 of last 5; cashed 13 straight
Jacob Bridgeman (1/1)	0	1	71.25	Closed 69-68 for T15 on debut 2025
Cameron Young (3/4)	1	2	72.50	T10 2023; 82-71 MC 2025
Matt Fitzpatrick (8/11)	4	7	71.71	T27 worst; 2nd 2019 first of 4 straight T10
Ludvig Aberg (3/3)	0	3	71.83	T22-T25-T24 (a) L3Y
Maverick McNealy (3/5)	0	0	73.75	73-80 MC 2025; T46 (a) 2016 best
Ryan Gerard				First Appearance
Si Woo Kim (6/10)	0	1	73.19	T19 2025 best; 4–>
Sam Burns (6/8)	1	1	72.93	T9 2022; T48, T30 L2Y
Kurt Kitayama (1/2)	1	1	71.67	MC-WIN; Nobody defends well first time anywhere
Patrick Cantlay (3/3)	1	1	71.67	T31, T36, and T4 L3Y
Shane Lowry (3/7)	2	2	72.20	7th 2025, 3rd 2024; AWFUL before!
Min Woo Lee (1/4)	0	0	75.30	73 or WORSE in 9 of 10 rounds
Jason Day (10/12)	3	7	71.30	2016 winner; T8 2025, T10 2023
Players	Top	Top	Scr	Bay Hill HFC Finishes/Notes
(cuts made/starts)	10	25	Avg
Corey Conners (5/7)	2	5	71.46	3rd ’25, 3rd ’21; T21 > last 5
Akshay Bhatia (0/1)				79-73 MC
Matt McCarty				First Appearance
Ryan Fox (1/1)	0	1	71.00	71-67 to close T14
Andrew Novak (1/1)	0	0	72.50	T34 debut 2025 included 65 Saturday
Jake Knapp (1/1)	0	0	75.00	T57 2025 debut
Sam Stevens (1/1)	0	0	73.00	T40 2025 debut
Pierceson Coody (1/1)	0	1	71.00	T14 2023 debut; 66 Saturday
Michael Kim (2/3)	1	2	71.20	4th 2025; T17 2017 (a)
Michael Thorbjornsen				First Appearance
Adam Scott (11/15)	2	4	71.81	3rd 2014; T36-MC last 2
Brian Harman (6/12)	0	4	72.58	T40-T12 L2Y; T12 best
Nicolai Hojgaard (0/2)	0	0	74.00	3 of 4 rounds > 71
Nick Taylor (5/8)	0	1	72.69	T31-T12 last 2 best 2
Harry Hall				First Appearance
Daniel Berger (2/3)	0	2	71.20	T15 2025; T13 2015
Taylor Pendrith (1/3)	0	0	74.75	T42 2022 debut best
Ryo Hisatsune				First Appearance
JT Poston (3/5)	0	0	74.38	T50-T55 last 2 best 2
Rickie Fowler (12/13)	1	4	72.12	Only top 10 2013; T31 best in last 4
Sungjae Im (7/7)	2	7	71.46	T21 or better in all 7; 2 podiums

Glass Houses

Fantasy Golf Only

Month: March 2026

Valspar Championship Betting Angles

THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Angles

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Angles